Tuesday night brought an absolutely wild 15-game slate of baseball. Guys were hitting grand slams for the first time in six years, stud pitchers were having meltdowns and a catcher who hit two home runs all of last season hit three in a game. I promise, things won’t be that wild tonight (at least compared to yesterday). So please, for the love of God, let’s have a nice, normal slate. Let’s get into all the information and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jimmy Nelson, $8,200 MIL (-245) vs. MIA (+210) — I’m sorry, what? Yes, this is the correct information I’m giving you right now. The Brewers are HUGE favorites despite Nelson not making a single appearance this season. Oh, did I mention the Marlins just schooled the Brewers last night as well? Regardless, Nelson will be making his debut after spending time in Triple-A. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2017 and has dealt with a number of injuries since then. I can’t imagine he’s going deep into this game and I certainly am not looking to take him. Yes, the matchup on paper is enticing, but there are WAY too many risks to consider here. For what it’s worth, through 24 innings in the minors this season, Nelson had a 28.4 K% with a 4.87 xFIP.
Highest TotalCIN (+123) at STL (-139) 9.5 runs — This is one of two games with a projected total of 9.5 runs. The Cardinals are the largest favorites of those games as they take on Anthony DeSclafani ($6,800). It’s been a rough go for him over his past four starts, as he’s failed to score more than 7.4 DKFP or pitching more than 5 2/3 innings. Lefties often get the best of DeSclafani, as he’s allowed a .431 wOBA with a 5.82 xFIP and nine of his 14 home runs within the split. Luckily for us, the lefty bats on the Cardinals are very cheap, as Matt Carpenter at $4,300 is the most expensive. At home, the Cardinals are averaging 4.9 runs per game but have only a .312 wOBA and a .142 ISO. If you’re looking to stack the Cards here, I mainly would focus on the lefties.
Weather ConcernsATL at PIT (PNC Park) — It looks as if we’ll see something happen with this game depending on the timing of the storms expected to roll through. As of this morning, it looks like a game that’s worth fading but as always, that could change. Keep an eye on this one.
MIN at CLE (Progressive Field) — A slight chance of a delayed start but once the game gets going, it should be smooth sailing.
TB at DET (Comerica Park) — We could see a quick delay if rain ends up over the park but just like in Progressive, doesn’t look like anything to worry about.
BOS at KC (Kauffman Stadium) — If the rain ends up over the ballpark we could be in for a lengthy delay. With Chris Sale taking the mound, this is worth watching regardless of if you’re on him or not for ownership purposes. Guys like Charlie Morton ($11,600) and James Paxton ($11,300) could see a higher total if this game looks bad before lock.
CIN at STL (Busch Stadium) — This game should start no problem, but it’s later in the evening where we could see some trouble. We have a legitimate chance of this one being called early, so keep that in mind.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|Dakota Hudson||.435||5.38||John Means||.265||3.94|
|Anthony DeSclafani||.431||5.82||German Marquez||.270||3.98|
|Joe Musgrove||.377||4.35||Mike Minor||.287||4.04|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|Mike Leake||.369||5.70||Daniel Mengden||.209||4.91|
|Carlos Carrasco||.334||2.79||Brad Peacock||.225||3.66|
|Jason Vargas||.332||5.54||Dakota Hudson||.228||3.71|
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Pitcher to Build AroundBrad Peacock, HOU at SEA, $9,600 — Maybe I’m feeling a bit burned from Stephen Strasburg last night because I really like Charlie Morton ($11,600) against the Tigers. Despite the Tigers getting to Blake Snell, they own the highest K% in the league against righties. Going against Morton, who has a 30.4 K%, is enticing. However, I like Peacock a lot as well, and he’s $2,000 less. Peacock faces a struggling Mariners lineup that over the past week has second highest K% in the league at 28% and a .283 wOBA. Peacock has been dominant on the mound and sports a 25.1 K% on the season. I happily will take the discount in this spot.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForMike Moustakas, MIL vs. MIA, $5,600 — I’m expecting the Brewers to hit better than they did yesterday. Sandy Alcantara ($6,600) is the cure to yesterday’s offensive woes, and Moose is the perfect guy to target in this spot. Against lefties on the road, Alcantara has allowed a .398 wOBA with a 7.71 xFIP with three of the six home runs he’s allowed. It’s the type of numbers you want to see when you consider Moose has a .407 wOBA and a .378 ISO at Miller Park against righties.
Save Big by Drafting…Aaron Hicks, NYY at TOR, $4,000 — Hicks expected to be batting cleanup for the Yankees and only $4,000 is a steal. Against lefties, Trent Thornton ($7,300) is allowing a .360 wOBA with seven of his 10 home runs. Thornton also has pitched his worst baseball at Rogers Centre, sporting a .373 wOBA and a 4.07 xFIP.
Stack Em UpBOS at KC (Jakob Junis) — As long as the weather looks good for this game, the Red Sox are one of my favorite stacks on this slate. They’ll be taking on Junis ($7,000), who has a .327 wOBA and a 4.59 xFIP through 32 2/3 innings at home this season. He essentially has two pitches in his arsenal with the slider being his go-to pitch. Unfortunately for him, the Red Sox rank as the best hitting club against that pitch. I imagine they’ll draw low ownership with the combination of both potential weather issues and their salaries.
Favorite Prop Bet
Colorado Rockies OVER 3.5 runs (+101)
This is baffling to see this not only at plus money but at 3.5 runs. The Rockies are facing Yu Darvish and his awful command at Wrigley Field. Sure, you could point to the fact the Rockies have not hit well on the road. The numbers prove it with a .298 wOBA and a .178 ISO. However, Darvish puts a number of guys on base and enters this game with a BB% of 15%! With a shaky bullpen behind him, the over on 3.5 runs feels obtainable, even with how poor they’ve been on the road.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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