MLB-Cheat-Sheet

After an odd three-game slate last night, we get right back into the groove of things with a massive 15-game fantasy baseball slate this evening. Pitching is at a premium tonight as six (!) pitcher are priced at $10,000 or above. Let’s get into all the information you’ll need for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.


Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Blake Snell, $11,000, TB (-278) vs. DET (+230) — Snell is coming off a disappointing outing against the Blue Jays in which he allowed two runs on six hits while managing to only strikeout five through six innings for 14.7 DKFP. He has a legitimate chance of bouncing back tonight against another team that struggles against lefties. The Tigers sport a .311 wOBA, .160 ISO and 26.8 K%, which is the fourth highest in the league. Snell sports one of the best K% in the league at 35%, which ranks second highest behind Gerrit Cole. Even with that start coming on the road, Snell has a magnificent .275 wOBA and 2.65 xFIP through 27 2/3 innings.

Highest Total

BAL (+110) vs. TEX (-125) 11 runs — A massive total for these teams at Globe Life Park, edging out Rockies at Cubs, which is set at 10.5. The Rangers are favorites against Dylan Bundy ($7,400) and have a team total of 5.5 runs. Bundy really hasn’t been all that bad as of late and just wrapped up the month of May with a .265 wOBA and 4.32 xFIP. He also hasn’t allowed more than three runs in five straight starts, averaging 18.5 DKFP in that span. Home runs are still a big problem for him, allowing 13 on the year, but he hasn’t been the guy I’m looking to target against when he takes the mound.

Without Joey Gallo in the lineup, the Rangers have a .320 wOBA and .192 ISO at home, both of which are down quite a bit. If anything, I think Bundy makes for an interesting tournament play with his strikeout upside. With how poor the Orioles bullpen is, I certainly don’t hate a Rangers stack but it’s not as appealing as one would think.


Weather Concerns

BOS @ KC (Kaufman Stadium) – A slight chance of storms in Kansas City but doesn’t look like anything to worry about. If anything, it’s going to be very humid, which is always a boost to hitters.

CIN @ STL (Busch Stadium) – This game will be worth watching as a line of storms will be in the area, but not necessarily over the park. Depending on where they are, this could be a complete non-issue or a big one. Keep an eye on this one later in the day.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. LHBwOBAxFIP
Eduardo Rodriguez.4253.91Hyun-jin Ryu.1882.40
Reynaldo Lopez.4046.78Madison Bumgarner.2092.41
Jerad Eickhoff.4016.31Stephen Strasburg.2333.05

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. RHBwOBAxFIP
Steven Brault.4036.63Chris Paddack.2043.03
Ryan Carpenter.3705.77Luis Castillo.2273.17
Dylan Bundy.3643.97Hyun-jin Ryu.2443.06

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

NameTeamSalaryHard-Hit%
Hunter RenfroeSD$530080%
Wil MyersSD$420077.8%
Scott KingeryPHI$400072.2%
Willson ContrerasCHC$450071.4%
Juan SotoWAS$550071.4%

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Stephen Strasburg, WAS vs. CWS, $11,500 — Strasburg is the most expensive pitcher on the slate but I absolutely love this matchup for him. The White Sox will be traveling to Nationals Park and will lose one of their power bats, either Jose Abreu ($4,100) or Yonder Alonso ($3,000) with no DH. The White Sox also have one of the highest K% in the league against righties at 25.4%, which ranks fourth. Finally, his numbers at home have been nothing less than stellar, as he’s posting a .270 wOBA with a 2.63 xFIP. Sure, bats will be a bit tough to fit in with Strasburg in your lineup but I think it’s the way to go.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Ronald Acuna, ATL vs. PIT, $4,500 — Acuna feels too cheap for this matchup against Brault. Righties have been mashing him and Acuna mashes lefties, so this makes a lot of sense. Against lefties, Acuna has a .418 wOBA, .340 ISO and 5-of-11 home runs allowed. As for Brault, who I still can’t understand why he’s starting, has allowed a .403 wOBA and 6.63 xFIP with 4-of-5 home runs allowed to righties. Acuna, along with the Braves as a whole, should be in a great spot in this game.

Save Big by Drafting…

Khris Davis, OAK vs. LAA, $3,600 — This is so cheap for Davis that I can’t ignore it. He sees a $600 drop in salary from Sunday against the Astros, when he was $4,200. He’ll be taking on Griffin Canning ($8,500), who has allowed six home runs through 32 1/3 innings thus far. Canning has been good overall but the home runs have been an issue, averaging a 1.6 HR/9. Davis with his home run potential at such a low salary is enticing and will help make other moves for your lineups.

Stack Em Up

TB vs. DET (Ryan Carpenter) — I think the Rays will go overlooked despite a strong matchup against Carpenter ($5,600). Through nine innings at home, Carpenter has allowed a .479 wOBA with a 5.68 xFIP. It gets even uglier when you see he’s given up 14 runs (13 earned) on 16 hits in that span. When they’re away from Tropicana Field, the Rays have a .335 wOBA with a .189 ISO.


Favorite Prop Bet

Brewers OVER 4.5 runs (-134)

The Brewers are lucky enough to draw Pablo Lopez away from Marlins Park in this game. As coined by fellow DK Live writer Garion Thorne, Lopez is the 2019 version of Wei-Yin Chen, as someone who is dominant at Marlins Park but turns into a puddle on the road. Lopez is allowing a .381 wOBA and 4.51 xFIP on the road compared to his .209 wOBA and 3.37 xFIP at home. The Brewers should have no problem teeing off on him at Miller Park, where they average 5.2 runs per game.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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