Chicago Cubs v Colorado Rockies

Almost every team is in action tonight, except for the Red Sox and Yankees, who are on a weird trip to London. Coors Field continues with another massive projection for the Dodgers, and Jacob deGrom takes the hill against the Braves for the third time this season. Let’s jump into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Hyun-jin Ryu, $8,900, LAD (-215) at COL (+185) — Over at Coors Field, Ryu is a massive favorite tonight as he and the Dodgers continue their series against the Rockies. Pitching didn’t have a good night last night, as these teams combined for 20 runs, including seven off Walker Buehler through 5 2/3 innings. Ryu has been on a whole different level this season both at home and on the road. In fact, he’s allowed only eight runs through 41 1/3 innings this season on the road. With that in mind, he is a left-handed pitcher entering Coors Field, which usually never ends well. Nonetheless, the Rockies have been tagged with only a 4.5 run total compared to the 7.5 of the Dodgers (more on that in a moment). His price point makes him an attractive option, but Coors Field changes people, man.

Highest Total

LAD (-215) at COL (+185) 12 runs — Just a massive run total for the Dodgers here at 7.5 runs going against Antonio Senzatela ($4,600). He’s been an absolute nightmare at Coors Field through six starts, owning a .347 wOBA with a 4.79 xFIP with five of his 11 home runs allowed. Lefties have gotten the best of him at Coors, which is dangerous considering this Dodgers lineup. In those matchups, Senzatela has a .409 wOBA with a 6.13 xFIP. Not that I would focus only on the lefties in this matchup, but it will make you consider someone like Matt Beaty ($4,200), who is lower in the order but is both 1B/OF eligible. Despite this being a 14-game slate, I expect the Dodgers to be popular with such a massive team total.

Weather Concerns

CLE at BAL (Oriole Park at Camden Yards) — Some pop-up storms could occur right before or during the game. We could end up seeing a slight delay but doesn’t look like anything worth fading.

MIN at CHW (Guaranteed Rate Field) — Rain will occur during the game, so we have a good shot at an in-game delay. This could end up being a bit dicey for the starting pitchers, so I would check again before lock to get an update before taking any of them.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Antonio Senzatela, .402, 5.77, Hyun-jin Ryu, .172, 2.94
Danny Duffy, .377, 5.99, Wade Miley, .240, 3.10
Anibal Sanchez, .367. 4.94, Sonny Gray, .246, 2.80

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Michael Wacha, .419, 4.90, Elieser Hernandez, .204, 3.35
Jhoulys Chacin, .363, 4.86, Mike Soroka, .208, 3.50
Chris Archer, .354, 4.41, Hyun-jin Ryu, .250, 2.91

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Mitch Garver, MIN, $5700, 83.3%
Roberto Perez, CLE, $4200, 75%
Chad Pinder, OAK, $3500, 75%
Nomar Mazara, TEX, $4200, 73.7%
Ildemaro Vargas, ARI, $3500, 73.3%

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Cole Hamels, TEX at CIN, $9,900 — Hamels will face a weak Reds club against lefties at Great American Ball Park tonight. On the year, the Reds sport just a .310 wOBA and a .144 ISO with a 22 K% against lefties. This team has almost no power in these matchups, and despite a less-than-favorable ballpark, has me on Hamels. When he’s away from Wrigley Field, Hamels owns a .287 wOBA with a 4.29 xFIP with just three of his nine home runs allowed on the season.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Max Muncy, LAD at COL, $5,600 — I’m usually not big on writing up hitters at Coors Field because it’s fairly obvious. With that being said, it’s hard to ignore a team that has a 7.5 run total on a given day. Muncy is one of my favorite plays in this game as he sports a massive .406 wOBA, a .341 ISO and eight of his 19 home runs on the road against righties. He’s expensive, but he’s one of the “cheaper” lefties on this team with Cody Bellinger topping the $6,000 mark. I feel as though you do need at least one of these lefties in your lineup tonight, and Muncy is a good way to do so.

Save Big by Drafting…

Brian Dozier, WAS at DET, $3,400 — Finding some salary-saving options is going to be a must on this slate, and Dozier is one of the best options. He’s hitting low in the Nationals’ lineup but he’s been mashing lefties this season. Entering this game, Dozier sports a .447 wOBA and a .333 ISO with five of his 12 home runs on the year. Getting Dozier at such a low salary in a matchup he should perform well in is something you want to target. He’ll be taking on Daniel Norris ($5,700), who is allowing a .335 wOBA and six of his 14 home runs to righties at home.

Stack Em Up

WAS at DET (Daniel Norris) — Showcasing Dozier was my long way of saying, you should be stacking the Nats tonight and in doing so, make sure you add Dozier. This club is so underrated when it comes to facing left-handed pitching it’s almost become automatic for me to stack it in this matchup. On the year the Nationals sport a team .366 wOBA (third) with a .218 ISO (fifth) and 31 home runs (11th). With how poorly Norris has been pitching, especially as of late, I’ll be stacking the Nationals.

Favorite Prop Bet

Washington Nationals OVER 5.5 runs (-118)

Did you know I love the Nationals tonight?

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