Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies

There are only four games being played tonight as the afternoon featured the majority of the action today. With that being said, we do have a game at Coors Field going, so all is not lost. Let’s just into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Stephen Strasburg, $11,900, WAS (-215) at MIA (+200) — After being mowed down by Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin, the Marlins mercifully will see this series come to an end but not before facing Strasburg. Earlier this season, Strasburg faced this team at Marlins Park and scored 41.6 DKFP, tossing eight innings of shutout baseball, striking out 11 and allowing only two hits. He’s been much better on the road than he has at home, posting a .228 wOBA with a 3.11 xFIP. With the way the Marlins have been hitting (or not hitting) this should be an extremely popular spot for Strasburg on this short slate. Fade him at your own risk.

Highest Total

LAD (-210) at COL (+180) 11.5 runs — Nothing like a Coors Field game on a four-game slate! The Dodgers are huge favorites in this game with Walker Buehler ($8,900) taking the mound and the team sporting a 6.5 implied team total. The reason for the high total is the team facing Peter Lambert ($4,700), whom the Dodgers just faced in his most recent start. Lambert has pitched only eight innings at Coors Field but already has allowed nine runs on 12 hits, including two home runs. Against this powerful Dodgers lineup, this isn’t a good spot for Lambert to bounce back after two bad outings. You’re going to have to make a decision if you want Coors or Strasburg in your lineups for tonight, so choose carefully!

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Tyler Beede, .422, 6.05, Walker Buehler, .219, 3.43
Sandy Alcantara, .302, 5.39, Stephen Strasburg, .249, 3.44

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Tyler Beede, .336, 4.59, Walker Buehler, .261, 3.09
Griffin Canning, .326, 4.75, Stephen Strasburg, .291, 3.04

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Carson Kelly, ARI, $3700, 72.7%
Mike Yastrzemski, SF, $4000, 72.7%
Chris Iannetta, COL, $4100, 71.4%
Stephen Vogt, SF, $3700, 70%
Alex Dickerson, SF, $3900, 68.8%

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Walker Buehler, LAD at COL, $8,900 — I talked about Strasburg being in a strong spot tonight, but I do like Buehler as well. Yes, this game takes place at Coors Field, but Buehler has been downright untouchable. In four starts this month, including one at home against the Rockies, Buehler is averaging 38.5 DKFP, allowing just four runs over 31 innings while striking out 42. We would never, ever get a pitcher who is throwing like that at $8,900, but thanks to Coors Field, we get the massive discount.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Ketel Marte, ARI at SF, $5,500 — If you want an expensive bat not in Coors Field, Marte could be your guy. Sure, this game is in San Francisco so the ballpark isn’t the greatest, but Tyler Beede has been so bad against lefties it’s hard to ignore. Against lefties, Beede is allowing a .422 wOBA with a 6.05 xFIP and four of his six home runs allowed. As for Marte, he’s posting a .382 wOBA and a .245 ISO against righties with 11 of his 20 home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Tyler Austin, SF vs. ARI, $3,800 — There’s not a ton of value on this slate; as you’d imagine with only four games going. I’m assuming with the lefty on the mound, Austin will draw the start. When he does, he usually is slotted into either the second or third spot in the order because he boasts a solid .404 wOBA and a .294 ISO against lefties at home. He’ll be taking on Alex Young ($6,300), who’ll be making his major league debut despite struggling in Triple-A.

Stack Em Up

SF vs. ARI (Alex Young) — I think stacking the Giants on this slate makes a lot of sense quite honestly. Everyone likely is going to be flocking to the same players tonight, so why not try to mix it up and grab the Giants? I mentioned Young is making his debut, and if he’s out of this game early, which I’d expect, he gives way to a poor Diamondbacks bullpen that has a 4.46 xFIP over the past two weeks.

Favorite Prop Bet

Los Angeles Dodgers to score first and win (-112)

Imagine going against Walker Buehler?

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