After a slate that featured every team in action, Wednesday evening brings a nine-game slate without any weather concerns. Pitching is going to be a bit tough after we lock in one of the top-tier guys, as the mid-to-low tier is really void of anyone worth rostering. Let’s jump into all the information you’ll need for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Framber Valez, $6,900, HOU (-235) vs. PIT (+200) — The Astros are once again huge favorites tonight going against the Pirates at Minute Maid Park. Despite the 5-1 victory, it wasn’t a good start fantasy-wise for Gerrit Cole, who scored just 16.1 DKFP, allowing one run on six hits and three strikeouts through six innings. With that in mind, Valez is much, much cheaper at $6,900 compared to the $11,500 Cole drew last night. The downfall here is the Pirates simply don’t strikeout much, evidenced last night with Cole. They own an 18.3 K%, the third lowest in the league. Valdez is much easier to roster than Cole was last night but again, his upside is extremely limited without the strikeouts. If you need a salary-saver, I think he’s a fine option considering his price.
Highest TotalNYM (+135) at PHI (-152) 11 runs — The biggest total of the night belongs to the Mets at Phillies, with the Phillies as the favorites. They sport a 5.5 team total, which is tied with the Astros for the highest on the slate. They’ll be facing locker room enforcer Jason Vargas ($6,600), who hasn’t been the complete gas can we’ve come to know and love. Over the month of June, Vargas has a .244 wOBA with a 4.89 xFIP and a 30.4% hard-hit rate. Despite the good numbers, Vargas rarely goes deep into games and hasn’t pitched more than 4 2/3 innings in two straight starts. That opens up opportunities to go against the Mets’ bullpen, which has been one of the worst in the league this season. With that in mind, the Phillies should be a popular stacking option on this slate.
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Adam Wainwright, .404, 5.07, Framber Valdez, .226, 4.06
Tanner Roark, .374, 6.26, Patrick Corbin, .239, 3.33
Yu Darvish, .341, 4.58, Mike Minor, .256, 4.53
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Nick Pivetta, .412, 3.95, Jake Odorizzi, .221, 4.72
Griffin Canning, .326, 4.74, Charlie Morton, .227, 3.28
Jason Vargas, .314, 5.58, Tanner Roark, .242, 3.12
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Nomar Mazara, TEX, $4200, 81.3%
Mike Moustakas, MIL, $5300, 72.7%
Logan Forsythe, TEX, $3500, 71.4%
Chad Pinder, OAK, $3500, 70%
Bryan Reynolds, PIT, $4900, 69.2%
Pitcher to Build AroundPatrick Corbin, WAS at MIA, $10,600 — Corbin has burned us in the past, but this is a tough matchup to fade him. In their first matchup, which took place in Washington, Corbin threw a complete-game shutout, scattering four hits and striking out five for 36.25 DKFP. While we’ve seen Corbin struggle on the road this season, he’s in one of the best ballparks for pitchers at Marlins Park. Against lefties at home, the Marlins have just a .265 wOBA with a .096 ISO, both of which are the lowest in the league. This is going to be a chalky play tonight so don’t be surprised about ownership ,but I simply don’t want to miss out on him in this spot.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForPeter Alonso, NYM at PHI, $5,400 — Michael Conforto was a bust last night, so why not go back and take another Mets bat?! As you notice from the Splits to Start section above, Nick Pivetta is one of the worst on this slate against righties. Tonight he’ll have to deal with the red-hot Alonso, who is averaging 12.8 DKFP over his past 10 games. On the road against righties, Alonso has a .432 wOBA with a .341 ISO with 11 of his 27 home runs on the season.
Save Big by Drafting…Jean Segura, PHI vs. NYM, $4,100 — Staying in that same game, this is a great spot for Segura against Vargas. I don’t think he’s generated the proper praise against lefties this season, especially at home. In those matchups, Segura has a .480 wOBA with a .385 ISO and two of his eight home runs on the year. With a favorable spot in the batting order and a high team total for the Phillies, I think Segura is a no-brainer in this spot.
Stack Em UpMIL vs. SEA (Wade LeBlanc) — LeBlanc ($5,800) is expected to handle the majority of the innings today after opener Austin Adams ($4,500) departs. LeBlanc has been terrible on the road and sports a .358 wOBA with a 4.57 xFIP with four of his 10 home runs allowed. At home against lefties is a spot the Brewers have smashed in and have a team .373 wOBA with a .269 ISO. It also doesn’t hurt that the Brewers average 5.1 runs per game at home.
Favorite Prop Bet
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins UNDER 9 runs (-115)
This just feels like a lot of runs for a game that features Charlie Morton and Jake Odorizzi. Sure, both of these offenses have the capabilities to post some crooked numbers fast, but we have two good pitchers taking the mound. If this number was a bit lower I’d consider hitting the over, but nine feels just a bit too high. Morton has allowed two runs or less in 13 of his 16 starts while Odorizzi has done so in 10 of his 15 starts.
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