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Monday’s slate is on the short side with seven games. Rafael Devers (hamstring) is a candidate to return to the Red Sox lineup after sitting out the entire weekend series. Ketel Marte’s (groin) status is uncertain for the D-Backs as well. Fantasy owners can receive up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups by downloading the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter at @DKLive.


GAME NOTES

Largest Favorite

This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

CC Sabathia, $7,100, Yankees (-240) vs. Blue Jays (+205) — Despite being home run prone, allowing over two dingers per nine innings, Sabathia has prevented runs at a better than average clip after adjusting for the park and run scoring environment. Sabathia has done this in part due to stranding an unusually high amount of baserunners at 82%, a spike from his career average of 73%. Sabathia has also been decent at limiting opponent contact quality, allowing batters to produce an expected wOBA of .317 based on the exit velocities and angles of their batted balls, slightly better than the league average of .321. His ERA is a candidate to rise going forward as his strand rate normalizes.

The good news for Sabathia is that he draws a matchup against a Blue Jays team that has been bottom-five by wOBA and has remained towards the bottom of the league against left-handed pitching. The Yankees’ lineup is also loaded, which makes him a candidate to receive run support against Blue Jays SP Aaron Sanchez ($4,500), who has been below average at preventing runs this season and has poor peripheral statistics.

Highest Total

11 runs — Yankees vs. Blue Jays — Monday’s highest implied run total also appears to be located in the Bronx, as the Yankees play a home game in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and face off against below average pitching. The aforementioned Sanchez has posted a 5.49 ERA and 5.48 FIP, both about a run higher than the league average. Sanchez has also allowed poor contact quality, allowing batters to produce an expected wOBA of .355 based on the exit velocities and angles of their batted balls, higher than the league average of .321. The Yankees’ lineup is loaded with thunder after recently adding Aaron Judge ($5,000) and Giancarlo Stanton ($4,500) from the injured list and trading for Edwin Encarnacion ($5,200). The Yankees are pegged with an over/under of 6.5 runs on DK Sportsbook, the highest on Monday’s slate.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Encarnacion and Judge are not in the starting lineup tonight.


Weather Concerns

The biggest weather risk appears to be in Cleveland, where the forecast calls for a high chance of thunderstorms beginning in the afternoon and extending until after midnight. There is also a chance of thunderstorms in Philadelphia, but not until 10:00 p.m. ET, which would be towards the end of the game. A similar report is in line for the Bronx, with a chance of thunderstorms at 11:00 p.m. ET.


SPLITS TO START

This section shows who has been giving up the best and worst contact quality by exit velocity + batted ball angle this season.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Best vs. LHB
Lucas Giolito
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke


Worst vs. LHB
Drew Pomeranz
Steven Matz
Brad Keller


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Best vs. RHB
Jake Arrieta
Zack Greinke
Eduardo Rodriguez


Worst vs. RHB
Aaron Sanchez
Adam Plutko
Drew Pomeranz


Top contact quality by batters recently

This section shows who has been making the best contact quality by exit velocity + batted ball angle over the last 30 days.

Max Muncy
Pete Alonso
Cody Bellinger
Ketel Marte
Ozzie Albies
Freddie Freeman
Charlie Blackmon
Justin Turner
Dansby Swanson
Carlos Santana


LINEUP STARTERS

Pitcher to Build Around

Jon Gray, COL (-136) at SF (+120), $9,800 — Gray is pricey, but is in an excellent and safe spot in a massive park upgrade in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park against one of the most impotent offenses in baseball. The Giants have been the league’s second worst offense by both isolated power and wOBA, with only the lowly Marlins ranking worse. Gray has struck out 25% of the batters he has faced, a better than average rate, and the Giants have struck out slightly more often than average. The Rockies are also the favorites on DK Sportsbook to get the win. This is a reasonably safe spot in one of the best parks for run prevention against a punchless offense and poor overall team.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Gary Sanchez, NYY vs. TOR ($5,600) — Sanchez is having a ridiculous season by the light-hitting standards of the catcher position, posting a .394 wOBA and .361 isolated power, both significantly higher than the catcher league averages of .306 and .166, respectively. Sanchez’s contact quality has been even more elite, producing an expected wOBA of .424 based on the exit velocities and angles of his batted balls. He faces RHP Aaron Sanchez, who has been worse than average and has allowed poor contact quality to righties. Sanchez is a home run threat at the core of a potentially high-scoring lineup on Monday.

Save Big by Drafting…

One of the best ways to find value is to examine unexpected lineup slot upgrades due to rest days, which fantasy owners can do by downloading the DK Live app, where up to the minute news, lineups and analysis is provided. Prior to lineups being released, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,600) is a cheap option in the highest projected run scoring game of the day. Guerrero, the undisputed top prospect prior to 2019, gets to play on the road in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and has been batting in the two-hole, a strong lineup slot for fantasy production. Guerrero has flashed incredible raw power, already posting the second highest max exit speed on a batted ball among all players this season at 118.9 mph. His contact quality derived expected wOBA of .357 is better than his actual wOBA of .324, which could point towards some bad luck.

Stack ‘Em Up

Yankees vs. TOR (Aaron Sanchez, $4,500)– The Yankees are just loaded with pop, and as mentioned above, they play in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium against below average pitching opposition. Their team total runs of 6.5 leads all teams on DK Sportsbook.


FAVORITE PROP BET

NYM (+112) at PHI (-127): total runs by away team, over 4.5 (-108)

While the Mets’ manager and back-end starting pitcher pick fights with members in the media, the offense is also a candidate to threaten to slug someone. The Mets have averaged slightly above this number on the season and get a significant park upgrade in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Phillies starter Jake Arrieta ($7,300) is having his worst season since he was with the Orioles by both FIP (5.01) and ERA (4.12) and has allowed worse than average contact quality, allowing batters to produce an expected wOBA of .341 based on the exit velocities and angles of their batted balls, higher than the league average of .321. The Phillies have the third worst bullpen by FIP (5.01) and 10th worst by ERA (4.73).


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is timfinn521) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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