If you’re looking for a slate with lots of enticing and exciting pitching options, you’re out of luck. This should be an offensive driven slate with the number of poor pitchers taking the mound tonight. Let’s jump into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jake Odorizzi, $10,800, MIN (-190) vs. KC (+165) — The Twins are huge favorites as they wrap up their series against the Royals. Odorizzi ($10,800) will take the mound for the second straight time against this team, having previously tossed six innings allowing four runs on seven hits while striking out seven for 18.1 DKFP. It was only the second start this season that Odorizzi allowed more than three runs, having done so against the Phillies. Overall, Odorizzi has been fantastic this season and on the road sports a .258 wOBA with a 4.43 xFIP. The Royals have been hitting better as of late but I’d still have no issues taking him in this spot.
Highest TotalLAA (-155) vs. TOR (+135) 10.5 runs — These two teams produced a slugfest last night, combining for 17 runs in the Angels 11-6 win. Tonight expects to be more of the same as the Angels are favorites against Clayton Richard ($5,200). Since joining the rotation, Richard has been fantasy irrelevant averaging just 2.6 DKFP on the season. At home, he has a .385 wOBA with a 5.24 xFIP through 11 1/3 innings. Right-handed bats have smashed him overall, sporting a .430 wOBA and a 5.98 xFIP. The Angels are raking at the plate and have scored at least five runs in seven of their last 10 games, giving them 5.3 runs per game during that span.
Weather ConcernsHOU at NYY (Yankee Stadium) – Very likely this game sees a delay at some point, it’s just a matter of when. With this in mind, starting pitchers could end up being really risky if we get an in-game delay. Keep an eye on this one.
PHI at WAS (Nationals Park) – By now you should be used to something going on at Nationals Park. Rain is in the area once again so make sure to keep an eye on the status before first pitch.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Tanner Roark, .381, 6.38
Glenn Sparkman, .280, 6.18
Erick Fedde, .380, 4.58
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Madison Bumgarner, .219, 3.02
Framber Valdez, .225, 3.83
Charlie Morton, .282, 3.41
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Clayton Richard, .430, 5.98,
Nick Pivetta, .375, 3.55,
Wade LeBlanc, .363, 5.70
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jake Odorizzi, .215, 4.74
Julio Urias, .231, 4.60
Charlie Morton, .234, 3.19
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Tyler Austin, SF, $3,300, 80%
Max Kepler, MIN, $5,300, 73.7%
Justin Turner, LAD, $4,000, 72.7%
Cesar Hernandez, PHI, $3,600, 69.2%
Yordan Alvarez, HOU, $4,200, 68.8%
Pitcher to Build AroundCharlie Morton, TB vs. OAK, $11,300 — You’re not going to look through the list of pitchers and think “Oh boy, look at all these great options I have to choose from!” Morton feels like the best option going against an Oakland offense that is nothing special against righties. When facing them at home, they sport just a .300 wOBA with a .171 ISO and a 21 K%. Morton has been essentially untouchable on the road and boasts a .253 wOBA with a 3.35 xFIP. He’s the most expensive option on the slate but I think he’ll be worth the price of admission.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForMichael Conforto, NYM vs. CHC, $4,800 — The Mets have been blessed with a spot start from Tyler Chatwood ($4,600), who has primarily pitched out of the bullpen for the Cubs. He’s struggled immensely against lefties and last season had a .402 wOBA and a 5.83 xFIP with seven of his nine home runs allowed. Conforto should be in a great spot today.
Save Big by Drafting…Chris Taylor, LAD vs. SF, $3,200 — When the season started, Taylor didn’t have a defined role in this Dodgers offense. Lately, he’s been doing whatever he can to get into the lineup and lately it’s been because of his bat. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 13.4 DKFP and is fresh off a two home run game last night. He’ll be taking on Madison Bumgarner ($9,200), who is allowing a .330 wOBA with a 4.41 xFIP and 11 of the 14 home runs to righties. As for Taylor, the majority of his success is against lefties, boasting a .368 wOBA and a .300 ISO.
Stack Em UpLAA vs. TOR (Clayton Richard) – Just as the odds indicate, I think the Angels are the top stack tonight against Richard. Over the past week, the Angels have a team .360 wOBA with a .264 ISO and a 38.8% hard-hit rate. Richard is not going deep into this game and I can’t envision him shutting this offense down before he exits. Once he’s out, he’ll give way to a poor Blue Jays bullpen who has a 4.81 xFIP (4th) and a 1.7 HR/9 (3rd).
Favorite Prop Bet
New York Mets OVER 3.5 runs (-129)I think the Mets could easily hit this total off of Chatwood. The Cubs bullpen is improving but they still have their share of struggles as well, especially with putting guys on base. Regardless, this total just feels way too low for a team that will be facing a spot starter who struggles with his command and home runs.
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