This is just any 10-game slate, this is a “Max Scherzer is going to pitch with a broken nose and a black eye” slate. If you were ever going to get hyped for a game, this would be a time. Aside from that, we have a number of weather concerns to deal with and will need to watch. Let’s get into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rich Hill, $10,300, LAD (-250) vs. SF (+220) — I have a certain list of pitchers that I’ve blacklisted over the years and Hill has been one of them. So you can imagine how I’ve felt lately, watching Hill pitch from the sidelines and doing very well in the process. I rarely take players off the list but man, Hill is making his case. The Giants are one of the worst offenses in the league against lefties and enter this game with a .277 wOBA, .119 ISO and 24.1 K%. With the way Hill has been pitching, how can you not love him in this spot? He’s been fantastic at Dodger Stadium and sports a .290 wOBA with a 3.58 xFIP. The overall pitching selection for tonight is decent but Hill really stands out as the top option, as backed by the odds.
Highest TotalNYM (+145) vs. ATL (-165) 9.5 runs — Steven Matz ($6,900) has been a really solid option at Citi Field this season, essentially making him a must play in those scenarios. Well, I have some bad news, we aren’t at Citi Field tonight. Instead, this matchup takes place at SunTrust Park, which means a road start for Stevie. Through 32 2/3 innings, Matz has a .365 wOBA with a 4.70 xFIP and 10 (!) of his 13 home runs allowed. To make matters worse, the Braves have been raking at home against lefties, with a .343 wOBA, and .239 ISO. This should be a huge spot for the Braves and a nice bounce back from getting shut down by Jacob deGrom last night. The unfortunate part is that you’ll be paying a pretty penny for this stack, as the majority of their lineups is $4,500 and above.
Weather ConcernsInstead of giving you the same spiel for every game, I’m going to list all the games that have the potential to be in a delay.
PHI @ WAS (Nationals Park)
DET @ PIT (PNC Park)
NYM @ ATL (SunTrust Park)
CLE @ TEX (Globe Life Park)
CHW @ CHC (Wrigley Field)
MIA @ STIL (Busch Stadium)
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Eduardo Rodriguez, .413, 3.86
Steven Matz, .389, 4.67
Jordan Zimmermann, .384, 5.85
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Lucas Giolito, .211, 3.81
Zack Greinke, .220, 2.84
Adam Plutko, .249, 5.89
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Adam Plutko, .404, 4.52
Drew Pomeranz, .395, 4.82
Aaron Sanchez, .360, 5.74
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Max Scherzer, .247, 2.05
Lucas Giolito, .251, 3.60
Kyle Gibson, .275, 3.09
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%Scott Kingery, PHI, $4300, 77.8%
Marwin Gonzalez, MIN, $3700, 75%
Mark Reynolds, COL, $3100, 71.4%
Brian Dozier, WAS, $3500, 71.4%
Josh Bell, PIT, $4800, 68.2%
Pitcher to Build AroundZack Greinke, ARI vs. COL, $9,000 — The Rockies bats looked good last night despite being on the road at Chase Field. Overall, they have combined for a .291 wOBA with a .167 ISO away from Coors Field. Greinke hasn’t been getting the praise he deserves for how he’s been pitching and brings with him a .251 wOBA and 3.36 xFIP through 40 innings at home. For the salary you’re getting him at, I don’t see how I’d be fading him tonight in what is slated to be a really favorable matchup.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForRonald Acuna, ATL vs. NYM, $5,500 — It’s hard not to like Acuna, who enters this game averaging 14.7 DKFP over his last 10 games. During that span, Acuna has four home runs, three doubles and 11 RBI. He draws a very favorable matchup against Matz, as Acuna has been smashing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .436 wOBA, .311 ISO and five of his 17 home runs. With the Braves involved in one of the highest projected scoring games of the night, Acuna is essentially a must-play.
Save Big by Drafting…Marwin Gonzalez, MIN vs. BOS, $3,700 — This is a dirt cheap price for Gonzalez, who is averaging 7.6 DKFP over his last 10 games. He draws a favorable matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,500), who has not pitched well on the road. Through 43 innings, E-Rod has amassed a .359 wOBA with a 4.58 xFIP with four of his 11 home runs allowed. As for Gonzalez, he has a .384 wOBA and .333 ISO against lefties at Target Field.
Stack Em UpPIT vs. DET (Jordan Zimmermann) – – I think this is a really strong spot for the Pirates, who’ll be facing a returning Zimmermann ($7,000). He hasn’t pitched since April 25 as he was receiving from a UCL sprain in his elbow. He wasn’t pitching well to begin with, and likely won’t see much action in this game to begin with. After that, we have a Tigers bullpen to feast on, one that has a 5.17 xFIP and a 43.7% hard-hit rate over the past week.
Favorite Prop Bet
Trevor Williams UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-125)Six strikeouts for Williams feels like a tall task for someone that is coming back from injury and likely will have his workload monitored. Of the nine starts, he’s made this season, he’s only had at least six strikeouts twice. The Tigers are a team that does strikeout a lot and they carry the second highest K% in the league against righties at 25.7%. With that in mind, I can’t see a scenario where Williams goes deep into this game and for someone that has only an 18.8 K% on the year, could hit the under here instead.
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