Another huge baseball slate is on tap for tonight with all 30 teams included. The pitching selection is impressive at the top and even features some really solid mid-tier options. Weather will be a concern in some spots but the majority of the games are in the clear. Let’s get into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cole Hamels, $10,500, CHC (-240) vs. CWS (+210) — The Cubs are the big favorites tonight as they face Ivan Nova ($5,000) at Wrigley Field. Hamels has pitched his best baseball at home this season, posting a .265 wOBA with a 3.49 xFIP. After a rough month of May, Hamels has been nearly untouchable through 22 innings in June, as he’s yet to allow a run and sports a 29.1 K%. The White Sox have very little power against lefties and enter this game with one of the lowest ISO in the league against them at .139. Couple that with a 23.1 K% and this is a really good spot for Hamels. With every team playing tonight, I don’t imagine his ownership will be that high, making him all the more enticing. With a gas can like Nova on the mound, Hamels should be in line for the win as well.
Highest TotalCOL (-120) vs. ARI (-137) 10.5 runs — The Indians and Rangers also have a 10.5 run projection but the Diamondbacks are the bigger favorites of the two games. The D-backs have a 5.5 team total against the Rockies, who’ll be sending Antonio Senzatela ($4,900) to the mound. His road numbers are brutal and a tough matchup ahead should make them even worse. Through 30 2/3 innings, Senzatela has a .377 wOBA with a 5.60 xFIP with six of his 11 home runs allowed. Lefties are raking against him on the road, tagging him with a .459 wOBA and a 5.42 xFIP. I love an Arizona stack tonight despite some mediocre home numbers against righties. This Rockies bullpen was battered over the weekend against the Padres and going against them fresh off that series is never a bad thing.
Weather ConcernsDET at PIT (PNC Park) – Potential ugly night of baseball as Pittsburgh will be under a flash flood watch. This will need another check close to lineup lock.
PHI at WAS (Nationals Park) – Last night went really well here, right? Rain will be in the area once again tonight so unless we get a clear indication of clearing, this might be best to steer clear.
NYM at ATL (SunTrust Park) – Good chance of a late start here but doesn’t look to be enough to postpone.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Antonio Senzatela, .433, 5.77
Anthony DeSclafani, .401
Ivan Nova, .400, 4.68
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Justin Verlander, .193, 2.85
5.44, Patrick Corbin, .240, 3.06
Cole Hamels, .252, 4.43
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Gabriel Ynoa, .417, 4.91
Adrian Sampson, .371, 5.37
Michael Pineda, .359, 5.03
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Brandon Woodruff, .240, 3.16
Anthony DeSclafani, .254, 3.71
Jacob deGrom, .258, 2.62
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Freddie Freeman, ATL, $5,200, 73.9%
Marwin Gonzalez, MIN, $3,700, 73.7%
Tyler White, HOU, $3,300, 72.7%
Mark Reynolds, COL, $,3100, 71.4%
Brian McCann, ATL, $3,800, 69.2%
Pitcher to Build AroundCole Hamels, CHC vs. CWS, $10,500 — As the odds indicate over on the DraftKings Sportsbook, I do agree that Hamels is the guy to target tonight against the White Sox. Their lack of power against lefties is really what entices me, especially on a night where the wind doesn’t look like it’ll be a factor at Wrigley. The White Sox also lose a bat with no DH in the lineup, giving Hamels essentially a free out. I think Justin Verlander ($11,900) will generate plenty of buzz, as he normally does but his salary is simply too high when you figure he’s in one of the best hitter’s ballpark in the league. His upside is tremendous, it’s just such a steep price to pay.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForMichael Brantley, HOU vs. CIN, $4,500 — I love this spot for Brantley at Great American Ball Park against a pitcher who really struggles against lefties. Anthony DeSclafani ($7,100) will be taking the mound for the Reds and brings with him a .401 wOBA and a 5.44 xFIP with nine of his 14 home runs allowed to lefties. At home, it doesn’t get much better with a .389 wOBA a 5.41 xFIP and four of those nine home runs. Brantley has been hitting righties well all season long and has a .364 wOBA with a .198 ISO on the road.
Save Big by Drafting…
EDITOR’S NOTE: Hernandez (wrist) is not in the lineup tonight.
Stack Em UpARI vs. COL (Antonio Senzatela) — I mentioned this earlier but I do really like the D-backs in this spot. When you look at their numbers against righties at home, it’s rather unimpressive. They own just a .295 wOBA with a .165 ISO. With that in mind, Senzatela has been atrocious on the mound and will be followed by a bullpen that has been ravaged as of late. Over the past week, the Rockies relievers have combined for a 5.11 xFIP with a 1.7 HR/9.
BONUS STACK!!!! I think the Twins against the Red Sox is a tad bit sneaky.
Favorite Prop Bet
Atlanta Braves OVER 3.5 runs (-143)This total is simply too low for one of the hottest teams in the majors. Sure, they have a tough matchup against Jacob deGrom but their bullpen has been a complete disaster lately. Over the last week, the Mets relievers have combined for 5.60 xFIP, a 2.6 HR/9 and a 5.3 BB/9. If the Braves can get one or even two runs off deGrom, they should be in a very good position to hit the over in this game.
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