MLB-Cheat-Sheet

Maybe it’s Monday but I find myself looking at odd places to attack this slate. As you comb through this article, you may raise and eyebrow or two and that’s ok, I’m warning you ahead of time. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s get into this and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.


Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kenta Maeda, $9,000, LAD (-250) vs. SF (+220) — This will mark the second time that Maeda will be taking on the Giants, tossing five scoreless innings in their first matchup. Despite allowing no runs, Maeda allowed five hits and only struck out three, giving him a DKFP total of 11.9. He has been much better at home and currently has a .214 wOBA with a 3.80 xFIP. With a rather odd grouping of expensive pitchers on this slate, I imagine Maeda is going to carry some heavy interest against a Giants team that has only a .300 wOBA with a .162 ISO against righties. For what it’s worth, Miles Mikolas ($6,400) is the second biggest favorite on this slate and I’m going nowhere near him.

Highest Total

LAA (-155) vs. TOR (+135) 10.5 runs — Another day, another massive total for an Edwin Jackson ($4,200) start. The Angels have a 5.5 team total, the highest on the slate tied with the Twins and Athletics. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, I imagine you’re pretty in tune with how poorly Jackson has been since joining the Blue Jays. Since his numbers across the board have been downright awful, we can focus on his home numbers for this occasion. He’s logged 12 1/3 innings and has been tagged with a .479 wOBA, a 6.07 xFIP and six home runs allowed. The Angels are going to be a VERY popular stacking option and the only way to really mix up your stack is if you go with some of the hitters lower in the order. Aside from that, expect these guys to garner a lot of attention.


Weather Concerns

PHI @ WAS (Nationals Park) – A chance of rain all throughout the night will make this a trouble spot to be cautious about. They may have to play through it if they want to fit this game in but this will be worth keeping an eye on.

HOU @ CIN (Great American Ball Park) – Same deal as in Washington, with a chance of rain all throughout the evening. I would recommend checking out the status of these games prior to lineups locking.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Miles Mikolas, .396, 5.35
Jake Arrieta, .380, 5.76
Edwin Jackson, .366, 4.50

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Joey Lucchesi, .220, 2.78
Wade Miley, .238, 2.78
Patrick Corbin, .240, 3.07

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Edwin Jackson, .564, 7.36
Andrew Cashner, .374, 5.04
Tyler Beede, .354, 5.31

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Mike Soroka, .204, 3.52
Kenta Maeda, .214, 3.69
Luis Castillo, .222, 3.43

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Marwin Gonzalez, MIN, $4200, 76.5%
Nick Senzel, CIN, $4600, 75%
Carlos Santana, CLE, $4900, 71.4%
Logan Forsythe, TEX, $4000, 71.4%
Christian Yelich, MIL, $5800, 70.6%

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Patrick Corbin, WAS vs. PHI, $8,200 — I’m going to regret this. I know I’m going to regret this. Corbin has been AWFUL over his last three starts, averaging just 1.7 DKFP! It’s one of the many reasons he’s dropped $2,100 in salary since his last start to $8,200, the lowest of the season. However, all three of those starts have come on the road. Corbin has not been efficient on the road, although these recent starts aren’t exactly helping those numbers either. He’s been MUCH better at home where he’s averaging 26.4 DKFP with a .225 wOBA and 3.43 xFIP. While the Phillies have been good against lefties, they’ve been much better at home. On the road against lefties, the Phillies have a .305 wOBA and .192 ISO. With some weather concerns at the top-tier of pitching options, I find myself … with Corbin.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Juan Soto, WAS vs. PHI, $4,500 — Sticking with this game, I also want my share of Soto facing Jake Arrieta ($7,300). If all Arrieta had to do was pitch against right-handed bats, he’d be a Cy Young contender! However, life just isn’t fair and he has to face lefties as well (sad!). In those matchups, Arrieta has been tagged with a .380 wOBA, a 5.76 xFIP and 10-of-14 home runs allowed. It gets even worse on the road where eight of those 10 home runs have been hit to go with a .438 wOBA and 5.21 xFIP. This feels like a tremendous spot for Soto to rack up some fantasy points.

Save Big by Drafting…

Justin Smoak, TOR vs. LAA, $3,800 — While the Angels will draw plenty of attention in their matchup against Jackson, the Blue Jays have some guys to consider as well. Felix Pena ($6,700) is scheduled to start and has really struggled against lefties. Thus far, Pena has a .355 wOBA with a 5.13 xFIP and 6-of-10 home runs allowed. Smoak has really struggled to put in production on a consistent basis but still boasts a .376 wOBA and .257 ISO at home against righties. He’s a worthy play at such a cheap salary.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Smoak is not in the lineup for tonight’s game.

Stack Em Up

MIN vs. BOS (Rick Porcello) — I’ll spare you from writing up why you should stack up the Angels. I think that’s basically a given. I do like the Twins a lot against Porcello ($7,000), who has really struggled on the road. Through 29 2/3 innings away from Fenway Park, Porcello has a .385 wOBA with a 4.71 xFIP and 8-of-12 home runs allowed. Not to mention, how poor the Red Sox bullpen is behind Porcello, the Twins have a legitimate chance to put up some big numbers. At home, the Twins boast a .349 wOBA with a .234 ISO.


Favorite Prop Bet

Atlanta Braves OVER 4.5 runs (-129)

The Braves are arguably the hottest team in baseball right now, going 9-1 over their last 10 games. Tonight they face Zack Wheeler and a poor Mets bullpen. While Wheeler has been pitching better as of late, he has struggled on the road and has allowed 8-of-13 home runs. The Braves average 5.7 runs per game at home, the third highest total in the league behind the Rockies and Rangers.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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