Despite only eight games on Wednesday’s main slate, it is full of potential fireworks. With a lackluster selection of pitchers and a potential offensive blowout in Baltimore, we have lots to discuss. Let’s get into all the information you’ll need and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mike Soroka, $10,900, ATL (-210) vs. PIT (+180) — This is a massive line for the Braves as they continue their series against the Pirates at PNC Park. Soroka has allowed no more than a run in nine of his 10 starts, which is a huge reason why he’s averaging 23.1 DKFP on the season. The Pirates can load up on lefties in their lineup, and that’s where Soroka has seen some of his issues but believe me, these “issues” are nothing that worries you. Lefties have tagged him with only a .286 wOBA with a 3.68 xFIP. Hardly numbers that make you worry. Soroka should be high owned on this eight-game slate.
Highest TotalTOR (-108) at BAL (-106) 10.5 runs — “Oh yes, there will be blood” – Jigsaw from Saw 2 (2015) (decent movie, not the best of the franchise).
Let’s jump right into this disaster. David Hess ($4,100) will be pitching at Camden Yards, and I use the term “pitching” loosely. Through 23 innings at Camden Yards, Hess has allowed a .438 wOBA with a 6.72 xFIP and 10 of the 20 home runs he’s allowed. Righties have tagged him with a ridiculous .542 wOBA and an 8.02 xFIP.
As for Edwin Jackson ($5,300), he’s logged only 19 2/3 innings but as you’d expect, it’s been an ugly 19 2/3 innings. In that short amount of time, he’s allowed eight home runs (how is that possible?), 32 runs (26 earned, as if that’s supposed to soften the blow) and walked eight (not bad!). I don’t think I really need to go in much more detail on why you should be interested in this game but expect it to be extremely chalky.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Derek Law will start in place of Edwin Jackson for the Blue Jays tonight. Law is expected to go 1-2 innings before Jackson enters, per Blue Jays play-by-play man Mike Wilner.
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns for tonight!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|Miles Mikolas||.399||5.13||Justin Verlander||.183||3.00|
|Edwin Jackson||.395||4.28||Joey Lucchesi||.196||2.45|
|Brandon Woodruff||.337||3.93||Jose Berrios||.277||4.32|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|David Hess||.421||6.18||Mike Soroka||.173||3.43|
|Merrill Kelly||.343||4.67||Brandon Woodruff||.243||3.04|
|Daniel Norris||.341||4.37||Miles Mikolas||.264||3.52|
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Pitcher to Build AroundMike Soroka, ATL vs. PIT, $10,900 — Just as the odds indicate, I think Soroka is the guy to target. Justin Verlander ($11,300) is always someone who will grab your attention, but I don’t love this matchup for him against the Brewers. I have no doubt he’ll be in line for a bunch of strikeouts against a team just inside the top 10 in K% against righties. With that said, they have such a high-powered offense that the $11,300 price tag is a lot to consider. Soroka will be my guy tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForEduardo Escobar ARI at PHI, $5,500 — Hopefully I can give you guys a hitter that doesn’t get ejected tonight. To be fair, any time a batter yells “You suck” over to umpire Angel Hernandez, I’ll happily roster you on my team even at the cost of the ejection. We were all Andrew Benintendi last night.
For tonight, I’ll be rolling with Escobar and, quite frankly, all of the Diamondbacks’ lefties. They’ll be taking on Zach Eflin ($8,700), who has a .361 wOBA and a 5.71 xFIP against lefties at Citizens Bank Park. On the road against righties, Escobar sports a .346 wOBA with a .269 ISO with seven of his 17 home runs.
Save Big by Drafting…Ehire Adrianza, MIN vs. SEA, $3,700 — If you’re looking to target the Twins, Adrianza is a good way to mix up your stack. Tommy Milone ($6,900) is expected to take the bulk of the innings after opener Cory Gearrin ($4,000). Against lefties, Adrianza has a .373 wOBA with a .222 ISO. He primarily bats in the lower part of the order and never draws high ownership. With a favorable matchup on tap, I think this is a sneaky way to save some salary.
Stack Em UpPHI vs. ARI (Merrill Kelly) — Look, I’ll spare you a writeup about stacking the Orioles or Blue Jays, I think you know that. One stack I think will go overlooked is the Phillies against Kelly. He’s been brutal on the road and sports a .363 wOBA and a 5.74 xFIP through 36 innings away from Chase Field. Righties have tagged him the hardest with a .410 wOBA, a 6.01 xFIP and five of his 11 home runs allowed.
Favorite Prop Bet
TOR at BAL OVER 10.5 runs (-114)Imagine taking the under?
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.