MLB-Cheat-Sheet

All 30 teams will be in action tonight as a 15-game slate is set to take place at 7:05 p.m. ET. Unlike yesterday, Tuesday is rather quiet on the weather front and won’t cause us to be scared off of any stacks (damn you, Diamondbacks). Let’s jump into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

James Paxton, $10,100 NYY (-190) vs. NYM (+160) — The Yankees and Paxton are the favorites for Game 2 of this day-night doubleheader. With the Yankees, limiting his pitch count in his first two starts back from the injured list, he should be in line for a full workload after throwing 83 pitches in his previous start against the Blue Jays. It’ll be a tough matchup for him as the Mets have been one of the best hitting clubs against lefties and enter this matchup with a .347 wOBA (6th) a .216 ISO (7th) and a 24.2 K% (12th). To his credit, however, Paxton has pitched his best baseball at Yankee Stadium, as he owns a .170 wOBA and a 3.04 xFIP through 26 2/3 innings. Personally, I like this spot for the Mets and some of their best hitters in this matchup feel a bit underpriced like Peter Alonso ($4,500), Wilson Ramos ($4,000) and Amed Rosario ($3,700).

Highest Total

CHC (-129) vs. COL (+114) 12 runs — A massive total at Coors Field with Jose Quintana ($6,500) taking on Peter Lambert ($5,600). The Cubs are favored here and have an implied team total of 6.5 runs. Lambert will be making just his second major league start and first at Coors Field of his career. His last time out against the Cubs was at Wrigley where he threw seven innings allowing one run on four hits while striking out nine. His numbers in the minors were nothing impressive and through 11 starts this season had a 4.82 xFIP with just a 19.8 K%. He does generate a ton of ground balls and before exiting Triple-A had a 51.6% rate.

People will naturally flock to Coors tonight and the heavy total for the Cubs will generate plenty of interest. Personally, I see three other games with a total of at least 10 runs on this slate and will look towards those with more interest.

Weather Concerns

SEA @ MIN (Target Field) – Potential for a delayed start but overall looks like this game should play. I would keep an eye on this one but it doesn’t look concerning.

NYM @ NYY (Yankee Stadium) – No rain to worry about but winds will be blowing out toward right field at 12 mph to start the game.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. LHBwOBAxFIP
Dakota Hudson.4205.35John Means.2283.65
Manny Banuelos.4135.32Patrick Corbin.2403.02
Jakob Junis.3974.63Ariel Jurado.2455.09

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters


Worst vs. RHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. RHBwOBAxFIP
Manny Banuelos.4055.48Kenta Maeda.2203.76
Mike Foltynewicz.3914.47Chris Paddack.2282.98
Ariel Jurado.3653.03Luis Castillo.2303.35

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

NameTeamSalaryHard-Hit%
Nick CastellanosDET$4,00076.5%
Nelson CruzMIN$4,70075%
Gregory PolancoPIT$4,20075%
Mitch GarverMIN$5,00075%
Travis ShawMIL$2,60075%


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Luis Castillo, CIN vs. CLE, $10,400 — The Indians have been nothing special offensively and draw a tough matchup against Castillo at Progressive Field. At home against righties, the Indians have a .312 wOBA with a .169 ISO, both of which ranks amongst the worst in the league. After hitting a bit of a rough patch at the end of last month, Castillo bounced back against the Cardinals his last time out, allowing one run on two hits and striking out eight. Against this weak offense, Castillo has a legitimate chance to make it two quality starts in a row.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Andrew Benintendi, BOS vs. TEX, $4,700 — Ariel Jurado ($7,500) may look as if he’s having a decent year but his advanced numbers say otherwise. Despite just a .245 wOBA against lefties, his xFIP currently sits at 5.09. I think this is a spot where the Red Sox could smash him and Benintendi should be a big part of that. At home against righties, Benintendi has a .332 wOBA with a .208 ISO with three of his seven home runs on the season.

Save Big by Drafting…

Marwin Gonzalez, MIN vs. SEA, $3,700 — Usually the forgotten man in the Twins stack, Gonzalez draws a really favorable matchup against Mike Leake ($7,600) at Target Field. On the road against lefties, Leake sports a .355 wOBA with a 4.51 xFIP and seven of his 18 home runs allowed on the year. Gonzalez, who is eligible at both third base and outfield, already has two home runs and four doubles this month with a .451 wOBA and a .370 ISO.

Stack Em Up

WAS vs. CWS (Manny Banuelos) — Banuelos ($6,000) has been a disaster then taking the mound and I expect more of the same against the Nationals. This is not a team you want to face if you’re a struggling lefty and that’s exactly what is on tap. Against lefties, the Nationals have a .365 wOBA with a .201 ISO. Banuelos throws a ton of pitches, has trouble with home runs and rarely goes deep into games. This is a smash spot for the Nats.


Favorite Prop Bet

Atlanta Braves OVER 5.5 runs (+120)

I was completely off on the Braves going against Chris Archer the last time they faced each other, so why not double down on them tonight! This matchup will take place at SunTrust Park and will feature what is arguably one of the worst bullpens in the league as of late with the Pirates relievers. Over the past week, they’ve posted a 6.21 xFIP through 24 2/3 innings and have been giving up a number of home runs in the process. If Archer ends up struggling, like he has the majority of this season, could be a long night for the bullpen.

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