MLB-Cheat-Sheet

Monday features a nine-game slate of baseball starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We have a few weather concerns to worry, including a game with one of the highest priced pitchers of the evening, which could really sway ownership. Let’s jump into all the information you’ll need for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Tonight’s game between the Yankees and Mets has been postponed due to rain.


Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chris Sale, $10,900 BOS (-265) vs. TEX (+230) — I wasn’t surprised to see the Red Sox and Sale as big favorites on this slate, seeing as Sale is the most expensive pitcher. Sale is back to dominating opposing pitchers, averaging 30.5 DKFP with 54 strikeouts over his last five starts. This Rangers club brings another opportunity for Sale to rack up strikeouts, as they have a 23.7 K%, which ranks 12th in the league. Overall against lefties, the Rangers have a .300 wOBA with a .162 ISO.

The only concern I have here is that the Rangers are one of the best hitting clubs against the slider, the pitch Sale has thrown 41.3% of the time this season. In fact, they’re only behind the Phillies in terms of rankings against this pitch. Obviously, Sale is a different breed than the majority of pitchers the Rangers have faced already. It’s not enough for me to fade Sale but I think I’ll scale back my exposure a bit.

Highest Total

CHC (+114) vs. COL (-129) 11 runs — The Cubs head to Coors Field in tonight’s highest projected run total. Both teams have a projection of 5.5 runs but it’s the Rockies who are favored. They’ll be taking on Yu Darvish ($6,200), who’ll be pitching at Coors Field for just the second time in his career. For me, Darvish is almost never a fantasy option because of his 14.8 BB%. You’re just asking for trouble with the number of walks he allows and I’d want no part of that. Lefties are also hitting him particularly hard, so this is not a lineup I’d want to target against. On the year, lefties have a .353 wOBA with a 4.26 xFIP against Darvish.

I also have no problem with taking the Cubs in this spot against German Marquez ($8,700). As you’d expect, his numbers at home are much more inflated than they are on the road. Lefties have a .350 wOBA and a 4.32 xFIP against him at Coors. It’s going to be tough to pay up for these bats if you’re looking at guys like Sale or Hyun-Jin Ryu ($10,400) but I think this will provide enough offense to consider.


Weather Concerns

ARI @ PHI (Citizens Bank Park) – Rain will be in the area but the timing could work out that it won’t disrupt the game. Worth watching as the day moves on.

NYM @ NYY (Yankee Stadium) – This looks like a potential delay to start but once it clears they should be fine for the rest of the evening. Depending on the timing, this could either be a non-issue or something bigger. UPDATE: The game has been postponed.

TEX @ BOS (Fenway Park) – This game could end up playing through some rain, which isn’t ideal. As of this morning, we have some legitimate concern that this could be a problem so it’s worth watching the status, even if you aren’t playing anyone from this game. Ownership for people playing Sale could easily shift to Ryu if it starts to look ugly.

PIT @ ATL (SunTrust Park) – Potential delay to start this game but should be fine once they start playing.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. LHBwOBAxFIP
Anibal Sanchez.3844.68Hyun-jin Ryu.1802.44
Jerad Eickhoff.3846.12Griffin Canning.2554.04
Taylor Clarke.3716.89German Marquez.2793.99

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. RHBwOBAxFIP
Michael Wacha.4174.99Charlie Morton.2273.27
Kevin Gausman.3344.89Hyun-jin Ryu.2323.10
Yu Darvish.3224.48Taylor Clarke.2553.37

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

NameTeamSalaryHard-Hit%
Chris TaylorLAD$300072.7%
Gregory PolancoPIT$450066.7%
Russell MartinLAD$300067.7%
Justin TurnerLAD$390066.7%
JT RiddleMIA$310066.7%


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Charlie Morton, TB vs. OAK, $9,900 — I talked about Sale earlier so you already have my thoughts on him. I really like Morton a lot as well against the A’s in Oakland. They haven’t been doing much at the plate lately and over the past week have one of the highest K% in the league at 23.2%. Morton has been nearly untouchable and has allowed no more than two runs in four of his last five starts while striking out at least five in all of them. He’s also pitched his best baseball on the road, where he sports a .253 wOBA and a 3.31 xFIP. If you’re worried about the weather in Boston, Morton is a very good second option.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

David Dahl, COL vs. CHC, $5,300 — I talked about Darvish a bit earlier so you likely were thinking about some of these lefty bats in the Rockies lineups. Dahl makes a lot of sense here and is in the midst of a really good run lately. Over his last 10 games, Dahl is averaging 13.3 DKFP with two home runs, five doubles and 11 RBI. Not to mention at Coors Field, Dahl has a .431 wOBA and a .243 ISO against righties.

Save Big by Drafting…

Cesar Hernandez, PHI vs. ARI, $3,600 — With Andrew McCutchen down for the season, Hernandez has been bumped to the leadoff spot in the Phillies order. In five games at the top, Hernandez is averaging 6.6 DKFP with a triple, three runs scored and a stolen base. If he starts swiping bags more frequently, we’ll see a quick rise in his salary, making him a potentially good value until then. Against righties at home, Hernandez has a .365 wOBA with a .205 ISO.

Stack ‘Em Up

ARI vs. PHI (Jerad Eickhoff) — This stack will be strictly focused on the lefties in this D-Backs lineup. Eickhoff has really struggled in these matchups and against lefties sports a .384 wOBA with a 6.12 xFIP and a 52% hard-hit rate. This lineup features a number of players that are capable of hitting from the left side, making it a really enticing one to target.


Favorite Prop Bet

Oakland Athletics UNDER 4.5 runs

Doubling down on my love for Morton, I think the A’s hit the under on their team total. As I mentioned, Morton has pitched his best baseball on the road and especially as of late. Behind him is one of the best bullpens in the league and has pitched 48 2/3 innings in June has a 3.07 xFIP (3rd) a 25.8 K% (9th) and a 3.52 SIERA (6th).

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