I hope everyone had a safe and Happy 4th of July! As we all recover and roll out of bed sometime in the mid-afternoon, we can turn our attention to the 13-game slate we have going tonight starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. As always, feel free to reach out on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Eduardo Rodriguez $8,700, BOS (-230) vs. DET (+200) –Despite a number of top-tier pitchers taking the mound, it’s Rodriguez and the Red Sox that are the big favorites on this slate. They’ll be taking on the Tigers at Comerica Park, a team who against lefties sports a .308 wOBA with a .152 ISO and a 23.6 K%, which ranks as the eighth highest in the league. The concern here is the numbers E-Rod has on the road. Through 50 innings, he has a .360 wOBA with a 4.54 xFIP with 10 of his 15 home runs allowed. This Detroit offense certainly isn’t one that you fear but the splits don’t exactly make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside. At the salary he’s at, Rodriguez is a fine option and should be one that will be highly considered.
Highest TotalBOS (-230) vs. DET (+220) 11.5 runs — This game also features the highest run total on the slate thanks to a 6.5 team total for the Red Sox. The reason being is they’ll be facing Ryan Carpenter ($4,800), who is making his way back up from the minors. Prior to his demotion, Carpenter was being demolished as a starter, posting a .411 wOBA with a 6.05 xFIP and 10 home runs allowed through 32 2/3 innings. Now he gets the call back up and will face a Boston club that has a .327 wOBA and a .202 ISO against lefties on the season. I would most certainly grab some exposure to the Red Sox in this spot.
Weather ConcernsAs has been the case as of late, we have a number of games with a delay potential due to rain. The following games fall into that category and should be monitored up to first pitch.
MIL at PIT (PNC Park)
KCR at WAS (Nationals Park)
PHI at NYM (Citi Field)
BOS at DET (Comerica Park)
MIA at ATL (SunTrust Park)
TEX at MIN (Target Field)
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Dakota Hudson, .394, 5.19
Antonio Senzatela, .393, 5.78
Eduardo Rodriguez, .377, 3.55
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Justin Verlander, .231, 3.25
Zack Greinke, .243, 3.17
Clayton Kershaw, .251, 4.32
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Ryan Carpenter, .402, 5.99
Drew Pomeranz, .400, 4.75
Aaron Sanchez, .383, 6.02
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jordan Yamamoto, .219, 5.03
Masahiro Tanaka, .261, 4.07
Justin Verlander, .261, 4.02
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Yasmani Grandal, MIN, $4600, 81.8%
Rougned Odor, TEX, $3,900, 80%
Tom Murphy, SEA, $3,700, 80%
Christian Yelich, MIL, $5,800, 71.4%
Evan Longoria, SF, $3,800, 68.8%
Pitcher to Build AroundMasahiro Tanaka, NYY vs. TB, $9,500 — Tanaka has completely dominated the Rays this season. He’s made three starts against them this season spanning 22 innings and has allowed just one run on 10 hits while striking out 23 for an average of 33.3 DKFP. Truly, that’s about as dominant as you can get. Tanaka has had some issues on the road this season but pitching at Tropicana Park certainly has its benefits and I think Tanaka has a very good chance to succeed here once again.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForJ.D. Martinez, BOS vs. DET, $4,800 — The matchup against Carpenter is good enough as it is. Carpenter has been the league punching bag when he’s been up in the minors. The cherry on top here is how good Martinez has been against lefties on the road. In these matchups, Martinez has a .526 wOBA, a .465 ISO and six of his 18 home runs on the season. I don’t see how you ignore someone like Martinez on this slate. Even if he goes out and has an 0-for-4 night, the numbers are just too strong to ignore.
Save Big by Drafting…Harrison Bader, STL vs. SF, $2,700 — With so many high priced pitcher and bats that are in attractive spots tonight, we need some serious savings somewhere on our roster. Bader is a really good way to do so as his salary has plummeted to $2,700. It’s not because he’s being discounted on good faith, he’s been slumping lately. What I do like is that he’s always been strong against lefties and even with the slump still sports a .220 ISO against them. Truly, you don’t need much for him to reach value so grabbing someone who is starting in a plus matchup at $2,700 sounds good to me.
Stack Em UpOAK vs. SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) – Another punching bag on this slate is Kikuchi, who’ll be making his start against the Athletics. He’s faced this club three times already and has gone 14 innings allowing 10 runs on 14 hits, including four home runs, for an average of 6.4 DKFP. The A’s have been a much stronger team when facing lefties and boast a .350 wOBA with a .232 ISO against them. For a stack that could go easily overlooked, I think this is a great spot for them.
Favorite Prop Bet
Oakland A’s score first and win (+112)Through the order the first time around, Kikuchi owns a .366 wOBA with a 5.53 xFIP and six of the 18 home runs he’s allowed. With the amount of offense he has been giving up lately, I like this spot a lot and gives you plus money in return.
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