Happy Trade Deadline Day! As this slate locks, the dust on a (hopefully) busy deadline will be settled and teams will be set for the playoff run. Tonight is one of the most important nights to keep up with the news as players could be traded/scratched and whatnot, so make sure to keep up with the DK Live app, which you can download from the app store on any of your devices.

Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jose Berrios, $10,700, MIN (-200) vs. MIA (+175) — No big surprise to see the Twins and Berrios as the big favorites tonight in Miami against the Marlins. Berrios enters this start having not allowed more than three runs in a game since May 18, a span of 11 starts in which he’s averaged 18.4 DKFP. Now, he faces a Marlins lineup that could potentially be without Garrett Cooper (hamstring) and boy do we have our chalk play for the evening. I won’t be telling you anything new when I say the Marlins have been one of the worst offenses in the league against righties with a .289 wOBA (29th), .128 ISO (30th) and 24.2 K% (8th). Clearly, this is a very strong matchup for Berrios so expect the ownership to translate that.

Highest Total

TB (+128) vs. BOS (-148) 11 runs — No Coors Field on this slate so we don’t have a ridiculous 14 or 15 run total to deal with. Instead, the Rays and Red Sox will carry the highest total at 11 with the Red Sox projected at 5.5 runs against the Andrew Kittredge/Ryan Yarbrough ($7,100) combo. Per usual, Kittredge will open this game and giving way to Yarbrough, so the majority of your research for the Red Sox bats should be against lefties not righties. Yarbrough has made two appearances against the Red Sox this season and has done relatively well, allowing five runs (four earned) on seven hits and 13 strikeouts through 10 2/3 innings. With that in mind, the Red Sox offense has been smashing as of late and they’re currently one of the better hitting clubs against lefties with a .339 wOBA (7th), .215 ISO (4th) and 107 wRC+ (12th).

We certainly have some appeal with the Rays bats as well going against Rick Porcello ($6,700). At home, Porcello has a .310 wOBA but also a 5.67 xFIP and seven of his 19 home runs allowed. He has not done well against the Rays, who have tagged him for six runs on 14 hits through 11 2/3 innings this season. Focusing on some of their left-handed bats could be the key here with guys like Austin Meadows ($4,800), Nate Lowe ($4,300) and Ji-Man Choi ($4,000).

Weather Concerns

SFG @ PHI (Citizens Bank Park) – Ugly looking forecast for this evening as Philly will be dealing with thunderstorms late in the afternoon and potentially this evening. For now, I’d say this could be one to consider fading but I would wait until later in the day to make a final decision on that.

TB @ BOS (Fenway Park) – If they’re willing to potentially go through a lengthy delay, they could fit this game in. However, like the Phillies game, this one is best suited with a look later this evening.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jordan Lyles, .416, 5.23
Miles Mikolas, .361, 5.07
Rick Porcello, .359, 6.21

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Lucas Giolito, .239, 4.11
Jacob deGrom, .283, 3.81
Jose Berrios, .286, 4.46

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Sandy Alcantara, .345, 5.07
Vincent Velasquez, .342, 4.83
Wade LeBlanc, .339, 5.38

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Ryan Yarbrough, .239, 4.16
Jacob deGrom, .264, 2.93
Kyle Hendricks, .270, 4.25

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Stephen Vogt, SF, $4400, 85.7%
Zach Green, SF, $3100, 80%
Alex Bregman, HOU, $5200, 80%
Scott Kingery, PHI, $4100, 69.2%
Ben Gamel, MIL, $3800, 66.7%

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. CWS, $11,800 — “Oh wow, let’s suggest deGrom for tonight, I never would have thought that” – our readers.

I get it, it’s a boring pick. But, when going through the options for tonight, deGrom is really the only player who I’d feel confident in returning value. Berrios is certainly up there as well but his ownership is going to be so massively high that I’d rather pay up a bit more for deGrom. He’s certainly in a groove as of late, averaging 26.2 DKFP over his last five starts while striking out at least six in each one. Now, he faces a White Sox team that is really struggling offensively and is likely without the service of Yoan Moncada ($4,300), who left in the first inning last night due to a hamstring issue. I think you lock in deGrom and figure out the rest after that.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Austin Meadows, TB vs. BOS, $4,800 — I mentioned him earlier in this writeup and will be taking him across the board in the outfield. Porcello has been so extremely poor against lefties at home that I want to make sure I’m targeting Meadows in this matchup. On the road against righties, Meadows has a .449 wOBA with a .310 ISO and eight of his 15 home runs on the season. With the poor numbers Porcello brings to this matchup, this feels like a no-brainer.

Save Big by Drafting…

Marwin Gonzalez, MIN vs. MIA, $3,600 — This is not a great slate for value bats. Gonzalez caught my eye because of his matchup against Sandy Alcantara ($5,200) because of the struggles he’s had against lefties. Alcantara at Marlins Park has allowed a 5.16 xFIP and five of his 13 home runs against lefties. Gonzalez isn’t a huge power bat but his value in this potent Twins lineup can’t be denied.

Stack Em Up

HOU vs. CLE (Zach Plesac) — Plesac has been good this season but one area he struggles with is the home-run ball. He’s posted a 1.4 HR/9 through 11 starts and has allowed six of the 10 allowed at Progressive Field. With the Astros lineup being one of the most powerful against righties with a team .210 ISO, which ranks fourth in the league, I think you can make the case to stack the ‘Stros in this spot.

Favorite Prop Bet

Tampa Bay Rays OVER 4.5 runs (-124)

When you mix Rick Porcello and the Red Sox bullpen at Fenway Park – you generate a lot of runs. Tonight, we’re all Rays fans.

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