Tuesday is always my favorite day of the week when it comes to baseball as almost every team is in action on this 14-game slate. As you’d expect we have plenty of different ways to attack this slate so I’ll give you my opinions on how to do so. Let’s jump into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
J.A. Happ, $7,300, NYY (-245) vs. ARI (+215) — Boy, do I disagree with this one. Happ has NOT been good lately and now gets a matchup at Yankee Stadium against one of the best hitting clubs against left-handed pitching. When he’s been at Yankee Stadium, Happ has been tagged with a .369 wOBA, 4.53 xFIP and 14 of the 25 home runs he’s allowed. As for the D-Backs, they sport a .352 wOBA (4th), .215 ISO (4th) and 20.4 K% (21st). This certainly doesn’t set up to be a good spot for Happ. I would not be looking to take Happ in this spot and would be really comfortable stacking the D-Backs in this position.
Quick note from a betting perspective: I think the D-Backs carry some value in this spot being such a big underdog. With that said, I’m not sure how I feel about Taylor Clarke ($5,300) carrying this team to victory. I think a small bet on the moneyline makes sense or the over on the team total, which is currently set at 5.5 runs.
Highest TotalLAD (-143) vs. COL (+128) 14 runs — An absolutely ridiculous total for tonight’s game, which has Julio Urias ($6,400) taking on Rockies starter Kyle Freeland ($4,400). The Dodgers have a 7.5 team total against Freeland while the Rockies sport a 6.5 mark. The massive total for the Dodgers is because of the horrific numbers Freeland has posted this season, especially at home. Entering this game, Freeland has allowed a .419 wOBA, 5.55 xFIP and nine of the 17 home runs at Coors Field this season. Of the seven starts he’s made at Coors, he’s allowing an average of 5.2 runs per game. That deserves a #notgood. I’ll be curious just how popular the Dodgers will be on a 14-game slate, especially when we have a really good pitching selection to choose from.
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Drew Smyly, .493, 7.19
Tanner Roark, .397, 5.92
Adrian Houser, .395, 5.35
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
David Price, .222, 3.52
Zac Gallen, .235, 3.52
Justin Verlander, .252, 3.37
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Matt Grace, .405, 6.09
Taylor Clarke, .394, 4.66
Drew Smyly, .378, 5.87
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Julio Urias, .214, 4.30
Charlie Morton. .230, 3.24
Justin Verlander, .252, 3.79
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Austin Riley, ATL, $4100, 100%
Stephen Vogt, SF, $4300, 85.7%
Nick Williams, PHI, $2500, 80%
Paul DeJong, STL, $4100, 75%
Alex Bregman, HOU, $4500, 72.7%
Pitcher to Build AroundNoah Syndergaard, NYM vs. CWS, $10,300 — I’m 100% playing into this narrative that this is a massive start for Syndergaard and he has the ability to show off to all the potential suitors. He gets a White Sox offense that is ripe for the picking and has been downright awful in the second half of the season. During that span, the White Sox have a .277 wOBA with a .129 ISO and 26.4 K%, which is one of the highest in the league. With this essentially being a final showcase for Syndergaard, I fully believe he’ll be on his A-game for this start and pick apart an offense that has been brutal as of late.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForKetel Marte, ARI vs. NYY, $5,000 — Going back to my sentiment that I think the D-Backs will give Happ a lot of trouble, I’m digging the idea of paying up for Marte in this spot. On the road against lefties, Marte has a .410 wOBA, .352 ISO and seven home runs on the season. Again, with so much focus on Coors Field tonight, I don’t expect the ownership on Marte to be high, putting you in a great position if you end up taking him. Marte is averaging 12 DKFP over his last five games, which includes four games taking place at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park.
Save Big by Drafting…Guillermo Heredia, TB vs. BOS, $3,000 — What a ridiculous salary saver for this slate? Heredia is where I’ll be looking to against David Price ($9,000). Heredia isn’t someone you’re going to take on a nightly basis but against lefties on the road, he sports an impressive .366 wOBA with a .211 ISO. Is he someone that’s going to crack a home run? Probably not, but he’ll help make a lot fit and certainly is in a matchup that benefits his splits. For what it’s worth, Price is in the midst of his worst month of the season, posting an overall .321 wOBA with a 4.23 xFIP.
Stack Em UpMariners vs. TEX (Ariel Jurado) — The Mariners have quietly been posting some solid offense as of late, averaging 5.8 runs per game over their last five games. Now, they draw a matchup against Jurado ($5,700), who has a .341 wOBA, 4.38 xFIP and five of his 10 HRs allowed. You want to talk about a stack that will fly under the radar and check in at really low ownership? I think the Mariners is the way to go this evening.
Oh, did I mention the Rangers bullpen has been amongst the worst in the league, especially since the All-Star Break?
Favorite Prop Bet
San Francisco Giants OVER 4.5 runs (-136)Drew Smyly is back in our lives and will be making his second start on the Phillies. He was impressive his last time out against the Pirates, but I’m not going to let that fool me. We ALL know he’s a complete gas can and as a starter has a .388 wOBA with a 5.48 xFIP and 12 of his 19 HRs allowed through 41 1/3 innings. The Giants offense has (somehow) been hitting well and have the luxury of this matchup.
Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of the applicable MLB entity. All rights reserved.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.