This Monday night slate is WILD! Not because we have a ton of great plays but because a pitcher who is hardly someone you’d trust on a normal basis is likely the chalk play of the evening. Are you baffled yet? Let’s jump into all the info for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
EDITOR’S NOTE: SP Jordan Lyles has reportedly been traded to the Brewers. He was slated to start tonight for the Pirates vs. the Reds.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jaime Barria, $7,200, LAA (-235) vs. DET (+205) — Barria will take the hill tonight in his fourth start of the season against the Tigers at Angels Stadium. Although he’s only pitched 38 innings this season, his splits at home and on the road are massively different. At home, he’s been great, posting a .262 wOBA with a 3.92 xFIP with two of his seven home runs allowed. Now, he faces arguably one of the worst offenses in the league against right-handed pitching as the Tigers have a .258 wOBA (30th), .148 ISO (29th) and 26.3 K% (1st). On a short slate and a cheap price tag, it’s hard to imagine the appeal for Barria won’t be high. I’m not exactly excited for Barria chalk night but he has exhibited some decent strikeout upside, and for the most part has had good control. Regardless of if you’re on him or not, his ownership will certainly be something to keep in mind when constructing your lineups.
Highest TotalLAD (-136) vs. COL (+118) 12.5 runs — The Dodgers are the favorites with a 6.5 team total against Jon Gray ($6,600) and the Rockies. Gray has not fared well in his two starts against the Dodgers, already spanning a total of 12 2/3 innings while allowing eight runs (seven earned) on 15 hits while striking out 12. What makes these stats even worse is that neither of these games took place at Coors Field. Both matchups were at Dodger Stadium, making this an unattractive start for Gray. The Dodgers enter this game having played seven games at Coors, averaging nine runs per game this season.
This is just another reason why I think Barria is going to be popular. He’s a very cheap pitcher going against an extremely poor offense in a pitchers park. To help afford these bats, Barria will make a lot of sense. So in a situation like this, fading Barria in tournaments makes sense.
Weather ConcernsPIT @ CIN (Great American Ball Park) – Doesn’t look to be overly threatening but some rain could move into the area during game time. Keep an eye on this one.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jordan Zimmermann, .400, 5.26
Jon Gray, .340, 4.29
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Patrick Corbin, .236, 2.90
Sonny Gray, .242, 2.98
Caleb Smith, .262, 3.74
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jaime Barria, .384, 6.18
Jordan Zimmermann, .358, 5.42
Dallas Keuchel, .331, 4.39
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Kenta Maeda, .215, 3.84
Chris Paddack, .225, 3.42
Caleb Smith, .284, 4.17
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Chris Davis, BAL, $2400, 100%
Jose Peraza, CIN, $3300, 87.5%
Wil Myers, SDP, $3800, 75%
Brian McCann, ATL, $3400, 71.4%
Carson Kelly, ARI, $3700, 71.4%
Pitcher to Build AroundChris Paddack, SDP vs. BAL, $10,200 — Another pitcher in a really good spot is Paddack facing the Orioles at Petco Park. While Paddack has had his share of inconsistencies, he enters this game with a .214 wOBA and 3.22 xFIP at Petco Park this season. Along with that, he also sports a 26.5 K%, which bodes well against an Orioles club that has a 23.1 K% against righties. Not only will the O’s be losing their DH but they already have a .308 wOBA and .162 ISO on the road. I imagine Paddack, along with Barria, will be a popular pairing across the board.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForAnthony Rendon, WAS vs. ATL, $4,900 — There is a lot to like in this matchup for Rendon. First and foremost, against lefties at home, Rendon sports a .485 wOBA with a .415 ISO. We like that. Then we see that on the road against righties Keuchel has a .428 wOBA with a 5.49 xFIP and three of the seven home runs he’s allowed. With so much focus on the Coors Field game, I imagine Rendon won’t carry much ownership, which is never a bad thing. Over his last 10 games, Rendon is averaging 10.2 DKFP with two home runs, three doubles and 11 RBI.
Save Big by Drafting…Josh VanMeter, CIN vs. PIT, $3,700 — VanMeter is smashing the ball lately and draws a really good matchup against Jordan Lyles ($6,200). Lyles has been a disaster as of late and has allowed a .599 wOBA, 5.25 xFIP and 43% hard-hit rate through the month of July. Then we have VanMeter, who is averaging 14.4 DKFP over his last five starts. Oh, did I mention Lyles has allowed an overall .416 wOBA and 5.23 xFIP to lefties on the season? Enjoy that $3,700 salary.
Stack ‘Em UpLAA vs. DET (Jordan Zimmermann) — Zimmermann ($4,200) has been absolutely terrible since returning from the injured list in late June. Since then, he’s made seven starts and has come away with a .418 wOBA (yikes), 5.17 xFIP (gross) and 45.5% hard-hit rate (yowie wowie!). While I’m not exactly thrilled with getting a bunch of Angels bats in my lineup, it’s hard not to like them against a pitcher who clearly has lost his way and is getting out no one.
Favorite Prop Bet
Washington Nationals OVER 4.5 runs (-130)I really like this spot for the Nationals as a whole, as they’ve been one of the best hitting clubs against lefties in the league. They enter this game with a .352 wOBA and .205 ISO against lefties, both of which are amongst the highest in the league. Not to mention the Nationals are averaging 5.1 runs per game at home this season, which ranks 11th in the league.
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