Wednesday has a busy day of baseball with a number of games in both the afternoon and evening. This article will cover the eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. The pitching selection is quite good for a change and brings a number of ways to construct your roster. Let’s get into all the information and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Julio Teheran, $8,000, ATL (-195) vs. KC (+165) — While Teheran and the Braves are the favorites as I write this Wednesday morning, I have a funny feeling it’s only because the lines for the Nationals-Rockies game were not available at the time. I have no doubt in my mind Patrick Corbin ($10,900) will draw the largest odds against the Rockies at Nationals Park. Nonetheless, let’s get into this start for Teheran.
After getting rocked in back-to-back starts against the Mets and Cubs at the end of June, Teheran has turned it around in three starts since. Since then, he’s allowed three runs on 12 hits while striking out 17 through 17 2/3 innings. He certainly has benefited from a light schedule as those games came against the Marlins, Padres and Nationals. To be fair, the Royals have been hitting well since coming out of the All-Star break and sport a .359 wOBA and a .192 ISO since then. While those aren’t numbers you’d normally go and attack, I don’t mind this start for Teheran at his salary. He’s been fantastic at home and sports a .290 wOBA with a 4.36 xFIP and only five of his 13 home runs allowed. I think we have a number of good pitching options to choose from tonight, which could help suppress the ownership of Teheran, something I would never complain about.
Highest TotalNYY (-110) at MIN (-104) 10.5 runs — First and foremost, if you didn’t catch the game between these teams last night, you missed an absolute classic. Worth checking the highlights.
As for tonight, these teams are extremely close in odds and both sides have an implied team total of 5.5 runs. For me, this is an easy game to side with the Twins with the lefty J.A. Happ ($7,200) on the mound for New York. A quick glance shows he’s been better on the road than he has at home, but his 5.15 xFIP tells me otherwise. Not to mention how good this offense has been against left-handed pitching on the year. The Twins enter this game with a .358 wOBA (fifth) a .225 ISO (third) and a 123 wRC+ (third). Both teams were forced to use a number of relievers as well, which is never a bad thing for the offenses.
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jordan Lyles, .408, 5.12, Patrick Corbin, .238, 2.87
Kyle Freeland, .397, 3.99, Zac Gallen, .270, 3.59
Reynaldo Lopez, .386, 6.43, Shane Bieber, .289, 3.08
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jamie Barria, .396, 6.30, Jake Odorizzi, .242, 4.90
Kyle Freeland, .378, 5.43, Marcus Stroman, .258, 4.07
Reynaldo Lopez, .333, 4.48, Shane Bieber, .268, 3.20
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Teoscar Hernandez, TOR, $3600, 76.9%
Cam Gallagher, KC, $2900, 75%
Jorge Alfaro, MIA, $3900, 72.7%
James McCann, CWS, $4300, 70%
Aaron Judge, NYY, $5000, 69.2%
Pitcher to Build AroundPatrick Corbin, WAS vs. COL, $10,900 — I don’t care he’s the most expensive. I don’t care I put him on my personal “Don’t play ever again” list (it’s always subject to change). I am 100% on Corbin tonight. It’s honestly amazing just how bad this Rockies team is on the road. Entering this game, they have a team .289 wOBA with a .162 ISO and a 26.1 K% away from Coors Field. Corbin essentially has been lights out at home and has a .224 wOBA and a 3.17 xFIP. I don’t know how I would leave Corbin off the board in this situation. Unless, of course, he gets blown up and then I’ll really never use him again.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForJosh Bell, PIT vs. STL, $4,700 — Bell is becoming much more affordable as of late but not for a good reason. He’s been struggling as of late, and that’s translated into the lower salary. With that in mind, Adam Wainwright ($7,700) is taking the mound and his struggles against lefties have been immensely high. Wainwright sports a .414 wOBA with a 5.45 xFIP and four of the 13 home runs he’s allowed against lefties on the road. As for Bell, his best hitting has come at PNC Park against righties, as evidenced by his .457 wOBA, .449 ISO and 14 of his 27 home runs. Take the “discount” with Bell.
Save Big by Drafting…Brian Dozier, WAS vs. COL, $3,900 — Dozier and the Nationals have a fantastic matchup ahead of them against Freeland. One thing you’ll notice when you look at the game log for Freeland is he ends with A LOT of negative fantasy points. In fact, if we do the math, the average DKFP total over his past five games is -2.06! Wild. Against lefties, Dozier boasts a .420 wOBA with a .297 ISO and five of his 14 home runs on the season. At $3,900, he’s in easy play for me in this matchup.
Stack Em UpATL vs. KC (Brad Keller) — The Nationals will draw a ton of attention as a stack and rightfully so. However, I think stacking the Braves has a lot of appeal as well against Keller ($6,600). He’s coming off two really good starts but I have to take in consideration it was against the White Sox and Tigers, both of which came at home. Keller has been much worse on the road, where he has a .345 wOBA and a 5.42 xFIP with seven of his 10 home runs allowed. Lefties will be the primary target of my Braves stack, as opposing hitters have tagged Keller with a .352 wOBA and a 5.40 xFIP.
Favorite Prop Bet
J.A. Happ UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-118)
I’m not a fan of Happ hitting the over on this, so naturally, the under makes sense. The Twins simply don’t strike out much against lefties and have a 20.1 K% on the season, which ranks 21st in the league. The most recent time Happ faced this team, he only had three through 5 1/3 innings. Happ’s strikeout totals have been all over the map this season, but against a team that hits lefties extremely well, I’m on the under.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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