A full 15-game slate is on tap tonight. We have some really good matchups to target as well as some sneaky ones I’ll explain below. Let’s jump into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Stephen Strasburg, $10,700, WAS (-230) vs. COL (+195) — The Nationals are the largest favorites tonight as they send Strasburg to the hill against Peter Lambert ($4,600). It feels like an easy favorite on this slate, as the Rockies’ offense on the road has been average at best and Lambert has been dreadful on the mound. When it comes to the Rockies away from Coors Field, they sport a .291 wOBA (29th) and a .167 ISO (23rd). The 4.2 runs per game they average is also amongst the lowest in the league, as they’re in the same company with teams like the Tigers, Orioles and Royals. Strasburg has exhibited some struggles at home this season but still has a .297 wOBA with a 3.03 xFIP through 57 innings. He’s a fine option to take this evening.
Highest TotalNYY (-124) at MIN (+110) 10 runs — With some of the outrageous game totals we’ve seen as of late, it’s quite surprising to see only one game with a double-digit total for this evening. The Yankees are favored once again against Kyle Gibson ($7,700), who allowed two runs on seven hits against the Yankees earlier this season. They have a team total of 5.5 runs, fresh off a game in which they scored six. Gibson continues to defy all expectations I have of him and sports a solid .256 wOBA and a 3.65 xFIP at home this season.
I’m a bit torn on this spot for the Yankees because not only has Gibson been pitching well, he stays deep into games. The Twins’ bullpen has been shaky as of late, but if the Yankees realistically only get three innings to face it, it could be tough for them to hit their total. Gibson has allowed only four of the 15 home runs he’s allowed at Target Field this season and that’s thanks in large part to an almost 50% ground ball rate. I’m going to be debating this all day today, so if you need me, that’s where I’ll be.
Weather ConcernsCOL at WAS (Nationals Park) — Who knows with this. Rain is in the forecast and the Nationals feel like their players will melt if they take the field with any type of precipitation. Roster at your own risk.
SD at NYM (Citi Field) — This likely will play but it’s one of those nights where rain will be more of an annoyance than anything. Keep an eye on this one.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Dylan Covey, .407, 6.95, Wade Miley, .235, 3.67
Tanner Roark, .404, 5.93, Stephen Strasburg, .242, 3.42
Peter Lambert, .404, 4.90, Yonny Chirinos, .253, 4.06
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Aaron Sanchez, .380, 6.13, Felix Pena, .246, 3.57
Dylan Bundy, .370, 4.58, Tanner Roark, .258, 3.41
Dallas Keuchel, .353, 4.59, Trevor Bauer, .262, 3.82
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Aaron Judge, NYY, $5300, 81.8%
Carson Kelly, ARI, $4300, 81.8%
Cam Gallagher, KC, $3000, 80%
Alex Avila, ARI, $4200, 75%
Teoscar Hernandez, TOR, $3700, 71.4%
Pitcher to Build AroundAaron Nola, PHI at DET, $10,100 — Nola is in such a good spot tonight; I don’t know how you don’t consider him. The Tigers have been brutal against righties and enter this game with a just a .294 wOBA, a .155 ISO and a 25.5 K%. We’re seen Nola struggle on the road this season, but this is hardly a matchup I would worry about. Nola will have to face a few lefties in this matchup, which has been a problem for him this season, but the 3.91 xFIP he has against them on the road dispels any worry I would have. Take what feels like a discounted salary for this matchup and ride with Nola.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForRonald Acuna Jr., ATL vs. KC, $5,700 — Acuna has a ridiculously high salary for this slate, but I can’t help but love his matchup against Danny Duffy ($6,100). At home against lefties, Acuna has a .379 wOBA with a .229 ISO. It doesn’t hurt he also is averaging 16.8 DKFP over his past five games, which includes six runs scored and three RBI. This is all before I even mention the 5.51 xFIP Duffy has on the road against righties. Sheesh.
Save Big by Drafting…
Editor’s Note: Segura is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Tigers.
Stack Em UpCLE at TOR (Aaron Sanchez) — How do you NOT stack against Sanchez at this point? He doesn’t make it past the fifth inning, he’s allowed at least four runs in eight of his past 10 starts and he’s always one pitch away from developing the 78th blister of his career. The Indians’ offense is on fire and now gets this total gas can in Sanchez at the Rogers Centre. At home, Sanchez has a .349 wOBA with a 5.08 xFIP and seven of the 15 home runs he’s allowed. Don’t overthink this one.
Favorite Prop Bet
San Diego Padres OVER 4.5 runs (-103)
We’re getting really close to even money on this bet in a game against Jason Vargas. I mean, did we all forget he’s actually a terrible pitcher because he tossed a few good games this season? Not to mention the Padres have been good against lefties this season. Vargas is reverting back to his old ways and has allowed five home runs through 16 1/3 innings in July after combining to allow only four through 46 innings in May and June. Oh, did I mention the Mets’ bullpen is awful?
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