Almost every team is in action tonight as we have a 14-game slate on the docket. Tonight has some REALLY solid pitching options AND stacking options. So which route do we go!? Funny you should ask, I have my opinions to give! Let’s jump into the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, $11,000, LAD (-305) vs. MIA (+255) — I’m so excited to write up a pitcher that isn’t on the Indians’ pitching staff. The Dodgers are MASSIVE favorites tonight as they take on the Marlins in L.A.. This is where Ryu has been essentially untouchable, as he’s allowed only 10 runs (six earned) through 63 2/3 innings here. The rest of his numbers turn out as a .202 wOBA and a 2.66 xFIP \ at Dodger Stadium. While the Marlins do have the ability to surprise offensively at times, I don’t see this being one of those times. They enter this game averaging 4.4 runs per game over their past five, but that’s in large part to a 12-run game against the Padres. Otherwise, they’d be averaging just 2.5 runs in the other four games. Ryu should be on your radar.
Highest TotalCOL (+200) at NYY (-230) 11 runs — The Yankees are quite the big favorites as well as they host Kyle Freeland ($4,900) and the Rockies at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees carry a massive 6.5 team total, which is highest on this slate. Freeland has been nothing less than a disaster even away from Coors Field this season. Through 30 1/3 innings on the road, Freeland has a .332 wOBA with a 5.12 xFIP and seven of the 16 home runs he’s allowed. A Yankees stack likely is going to be uber popular tonight, so be prepared for high ownership.
For what it’s worth, J.A. Happ ($6,400) has been awful at home himself and sports a .360 wOBA with a 4.69 xFIP and 13 of the 20 home runs he’s allowed. I realize the Rockies’ bats have been pretty cold as of late and essentially all season long on the road.
Weather ConcernsThe following two games will have some rain to deal with around the time first pitch is scheduled but is expected to clear up soon after. Expect a potential delayed start for both of these contests:
WAS at ATL (SunTrust Park)
OAK at MIN (Target Field)
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jordan Lyles, .403, 5.21, Hyun-Jin Ryu, .203, 2.87
Jordan Zimmermann, .390, 5.58, Patrick Corbin, .224, 2.84
Reynaldo Lopez, .389, 6.60, David Price, .234, 3.82
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jamie Barria, .398, 6.42, Jake Odorizzi, .219, 4.79
Taylor Clarke, .392, 4.81, Justin Verlander, .265, 4.15
Kyle Freeland, .376, 5.55, Marcus Stroman, .265, 3.99
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Brian Goodwin, LAA, $3400, 85.7%
Max Stassi, HOU, $2100, 83.3%
Aaron Judge, NYY, $5300, 81.3%
Tim Federowicz, TEX, $2900, 80%
Danny Jansen, TOR, $3300, 77.8%
Pitcher to Build AroundShane Bieber, CLE vs. KC, $10,400 — It’s hard to discount just how well Biber has been pitching — now he draws a favorable matchup against a Royals team that is struggling offensively. At home, Bieber owns a .302 wOBA with a 2.93 xFIP through 56 2/3 innings. Offensively, the Royals have been one of the worst against righties and have a .324 wOBA and a .169 ISO to show for it. The 21 K% isn’t amongst the highest, but we just saw Bieber strike out six in his most recent start against this club.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForAaron Judge, NYY vs. COL, $5,300 — It’s hard not to like the Yankees a lot in this spot against Freeland. While he’s been healthy, Judge has been mashing lefties every chance he has and sports a .469 wOBA with a .286 ISO and three home runs. Freeland has been mashed in almost every start he’s made this season, and this is NOT the start where I expect him to turn it around.
Save Big by Drafting…Jesse Winker, CIN vs. STL, $3,600 — This is a really cheap price for a hitter going against a pitcher who has struggled against lefties. Winker draws a matchup against Adam Wainwright ($8,200), who on the road against lefties, sports a .419 wOBA with a 5.89 xFIP and four of the 12 home runs he’s allowed on the season. Winker has been a bit inconsistent this season, but he does have a .390 wOBA, a .291 ISO and nine of his 13 home runs against righties at home.
Stack Em UpTB vs. CWS (Reynaldo Lopez) — I love picking on Lopez and have done so on numerous occasions. I don’t get how the White Sox continue to run him out on the mound every five days, but here we are. Sure, he has a favorable ballpark behind him at Tropicana Field but he still sports a .367 wOBA and a 5.43 xFIP through 47 innings on the road. Not to mention, he allows a ton of home runs with 23 on the year. I love the Rays in this spot.
Favorite Prop Bet
Tampa Bay Rays OVER 5.5 runs (+110)Yup, Lopez is pitching in this game. Take the over for goodness sakes.
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