In a shock to no one, last night’s horrible pitching slate featured some horrible pitching. Tonight we get back on track with some good options to choose from and we can even identify two pitchers to use in a lineup! Let’s celebrate this monumental achievement and dive into the info for tonight. As always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mike Cleveinger, $9,900, CLE (-275) vs. DET (+235) — Day 32 of an Indians pitcher favored over the Tigers (dates may not be accurate). Clevinger is taking the mound tonight in his seventh start of the season and fourth at home. He’s been fantastic at Progressive Field, where he sports a .180 wOBA with a 2.02 xFIP through 17 innings. The Tigers continue to be one of the worst teams in the league against right-handed pitching with a .289 wOBA, .147 ISO and 24.7 K%, the fifth highest in the league. It sets up as one of the most enticing starts on this slate, even with names like Gerrit Cole ($12,500) and Domingo German ($10,500) on the mound as well.
Highest TotalTOR (+215) vs. BOS (-250) 11 runs — The Red Sox are massive favorites at Fenway Park as they take on Aaron Sanchez ($4,400) for the third time this season. Through 11 innings, they’ve tagged Sanchez for six runs (three earned) on nine hits. Seeing how Sanchez has pitched this season, he’s actually done “well” against this Red Sox club. Nonetheless, Boston has a 6.5 team total, which is the highest on the slate. On the road, Sanchez has a .375 wOBA with a 5.69 xFIP and 7-of-14 home runs allowed. He’s only logged 10 inning in July but has quickly been tagged with a .350 wOBA and 6.08 xFIP in that span. While I have zero interest in betting on the Red Sox from a money line perspective (bullpen is the worst), I think they have a really good chance to put up some offense.
Weather ConcernsAll of these games below have the same weather forecast so I’ll spare the redundant sentencing over and over. These games are all expected to be dealing with thunderstorms all throughout the night, so make sure to check again before locking your rosters.
TB @ NYY (Yankee Stadium)
LAD @ PHI (Citizens Bank Park)
WAS @ BAL (Camden Yards)
TOR @ BOS (Fenway Park)
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Ivan Nova .378, 4.97
Danny Duffy, .372, 5.72
Eduardo Rodriguez, .365, 3.46
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Yonny Chirinos, .255, 3.98
Jesse Chavez, .260, 4.30
Domingo German, .264, 3.56
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Nick Pivetta, .385, 4.49
Aaron Sanchez, .380, 6.18
Ivan Nova, .378, 4.49
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Mike Clevinger, .201, 2.30
Kenta Maeda, .207, 3.82
Chris Paddack, .235, 3.18
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Aaron Judge, NYY, $4500, 92.3%
Tyler Naquin, CLE, $4000, 75%
Alex Bregman, HOU, $4800, 75%
Danny Jansen, TOR, $3500, 75%
Whit Merrifield, KC, $5000, 61.1%
Pitcher to Build AroundRobbie Ray, ARI vs. TEX, $10,100 — I’m never SUPER excited to play Ray. You truly never know what you’ll get out of him each and every start. However, the way this slate is shaping up, I feel like he might be one of your best options. With the amount of games with weather concerns, Ray going against the team with the highest K% in the league against lefties is attractive. The Rangers enter this game with a 27 K% to go with a .307 wOBA and .183 ISO. I’m very well aware that we could get maybe four to five innings out of Ray with the amount of pitches he throws but I think the upside here is worth the risk. We saw before when these teams met that Ray only lasted five innings but was able to strike out 10 while giving up just one run on two hits for 27.5 DKFP.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForJoc Pederson, LAD vs. PHI, $4,600 — This is just going to be called the “boom-or-bust” edition of the Cheat Sheet today. Pederson is exactly that but I absolutely love this spot for him against Nick Pivetta ($5,600). It’s been quite a rough go for Pivetta, who since the beginning of June has a .330 wOBA, 4.50 xFIP and 9-of-11 home runs allowed. Not to mention, how poorly he’s been at home against lefties, a spot where he has a .412 wOBA with a 5.43 xFIP.
Save Big by Drafting…Randal Grichuk, TOR vs. BOS, $3,800 — Grichuk has been on a nice run since returning from the All-Star break, collecting six hits in five games — including two doubles and a home run. He’s been fantastic against lefties on the road, where he sports a .368 wOBA and .177 ISO. Rodriguez has been a complete hit or miss this season and was wrecked by the Blue Jays in their only meeting this season, allowing six runs on six hits through five innings. I have no issue taking a shot with Grichuk here at his salary.
Stack Em UpLAD vs. PHI (Nick Pivetta) — I think a Dodgers stack is in order against Pivetta and the Phillies bullpen. The Dodgers have come out of the All-Star break swinging, averaging 8.6 runs in five games. With Pivetta struggling on the mound and a poor bullpen behind him, I can’t imagine the Dodgers not being able to post yet another night of strong fantasy production. On the season, Phillies relievers have combined for a 4.70 xFIP (7th) with a 1.58 HR/9 (3rd).
Favorite Prop Bet
Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 5.5 runs (-117)Have you been paying attention to anything I’ve been saying?
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