This is the second slate in a row where I go through everyone playing and just give my monitor a confused look. How is it possible that all 30 teams are playing and not once did I say “That’s the chalk pitcher for tonight.” Yeah, it’s pretty bad. But with bad pitching comes PLENTY of stacking options and this slate is not short of high totals. Let’s jump into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zach Plesac, $7,000, CLE (-220) vs. DET (+190) — Another day, another Indians pitcher strongly favored over the Tigers. Earlier in the season vs. Detroit, Plesac lasted seven innings allowing one run on five hits while striking out only two for 18.2 DKFP. That’s the kind of start you can expect for him, as he won’t grab you many strikeouts but he does go deep and limits the damage. The Tigers currently rank as one of the worst in the league against righties and sport a team .292 wOBA with a .148 ISO and 24.7 K%. I don’t mind using Plesac on this slate, but with all 30 teams in action, he’s not in my “must-plays.” The weather is looking ugly for this game as well, so that doesn’t help either.
Highest TotalSF (+116) vs. COL (-132) 14 runs — 14 runs……14…RUNS!!!!! In a game that features the Giants, Coors Field takes the usual honor of the highest projected game of the evening. Granted, the Giants scored 19 (!) runs in the first of two games Monday, but only managed two in the second. The Rockies have the massive 7.5 total in this one as they face Drew Pomeranz ($4,500) for the third time this season. To his credit, Pomeranz has pitched well against the Rockies albeit both starts coming at Oracle Park. We all know the Rockies against lefties at Coors Field is always something to target and Pomeranz has been much worse on the road than at home. Through 27 2/3 innings on the road, Pomeranz has a .452 wOBA with a 5.38 xFIP and 11 of 17 home runs allowed. While I think the 14-run total may come up a bit short, I think this is certainly a game to target, per usual.
Weather ConcernsWAS @ BAL (Camden Yards) – One of the highest projected totals will be dealing with some storms all throughout the night. Keep an eye on this one even if you aren’t targeting as it will shift some ownership.
DET @ CLE (Progressive Field) – This game has legitimate PPD risk and will need another look as we get closer to lineup lock. As of now, it looks as if this might be one to avoid.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Peter Lambert, .444, 4.79
Steven Matz, .406, 5,01
Daniel Mengden, .399, 6.00
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jordan Yamamoto, .178, 4.47
Andrew Cashner, .223, 4.58
CC Sabathia, .245, 4.07
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Drew Pomeranz, .412, 4.93
Vince Velasquez, .365, 5.13
CC Sabathia, .364, 5.07
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jordan Yamamoto, .199, 4.97
Daniel Mengden, .216, 4.79
Brandon Woodruff, .233, 3.04
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Aaron Judge, NYY, $5000, 91%
Tyler O’Neil, STL, $3900, 87.5%
Eric Thames, MIL, $4300, 87.5%
Danny Jansen, TOR, $3500, 83.3%
Buster Posey, SF, $4200, 81.8%
Pitcher to Build AroundBrandon Woodruff, MIL vs. ATL, $8,700 — It’s quite amazing that on a slate where EVERY team is in action, the pitching… stinks. Woodruff isn’t in the best matchup but truly, the options are really, really limited. Admittedly, the Braves are a tough team to strikeout but we saw Woodruff strike out six of them earlier this season in a 23-DKFP performance at SunTrust Park. What I also like about Woodruff is he is great to go deep into games. He’s gone at least six innings in six straight starts and has at least six strikeouts in all of them. With some of the wild pricing on this slate, I think Woodruff makes sense.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForJuan Soto, WAS vs. BAL, $5,300 — This is a great spot not only for Soto but the Nationals as a stacking option. The Orioles send out their version of a #WojBomb with Asher Wojciechowski ($5,300) taking the hill. He’s made brief appearances every now and then throughout his career and struggles with his command and home runs. What I’m most interested in is getting into the bullpen, as the O’s relievers have the worst xFIP in the league against lefties at 5.17 as well as a 1.6 HR/9, which is the sixth highest in the league. The cherry on top is Soto on the road against righties; he has a .394 wOBA with a .247 ISO.
Save Big by Drafting…Kyle Schwarber, CHC vs. CIN, $3,900 — Schwarber is just too cheap for the way he’s come out of the gate since the All-Star break. In the four games, since returning, Schwarber is averaging 12.2 DKFP with two home runs, two doubles and two RBI. Now, he faces Anthony DeSclafani ($8,900), who has a .414 wOBA and 5.32 xFIP against lefties on the road. It’s always an optimal strategy to target against DeSclafani with lefties, so Schwarber in the leadoff spot makes a lot of sense here.
Stack Em UpCLE vs. DET (Ryan Carpenter) — We have some legitimate weather concerns here but it would be a lie if I didn’t say the Indians are my favorite stack. How can you NOT be excited about this team getting Carpenter at Progressive Field? The last time Carp faced this club he allowed six runs on eight hits through just three innings for a whopping -8.45 DKFP. I’m HOPING the weather clears up enough that we can feel safe about using these guys because this could be a big spot for the Tribe.
Favorite Prop Bet
Nationals/Indians PARLAY (+116)I’m the biggest sucker for parlays (because they’re sucker bets) but I REALLY like this one. Two heavy favorites for tonight in really good spots and parlaying them together actually generates plus-money. As I write this, the Nationals are -190 favorites and the Indians are at -245. Those odds normally would be too steep for me to take to putting them together gives us a much more favorable number. Again, let’s just hope that weather clears up for the Tribe.
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