That felt like the longest All-Star break in the history of All-Star breaks. But great news: We backkkkkkkkkkk. Friday features a good 13-game slate with a few games with high totals. Let’s dive into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Domingo German, $10,100, NYY (-295) vs. TOR (+250) — Even with Gerrit Cole ($11,500) on this slate, it’s German and the Yankees who are the biggest favorites on the evening. They’re not just the favorites, they’re massive favorites at -295. German has yet to face this Blue Jays club this season but brings with him a .258 wOBA allowed and a 3.39 xFIP. The Blue Jays have some decent power against righties with a .194 ISO but also carry some high strikeout upside at 24.2% and only a .310 wOBA, which ranks them 24th in the league. His salary is high and he hasn’t pitched much as of late (only two starts since June 7 due to a hip injury), but he draws a favorable matchup this evening.
Highest TotalNYY (-295) vs. TOR (+250) 11 runs — This game also carries the highest run total on the slate, thanks in large part to the Yankees’ 6.5 team total. A big reason for that is because Aaron Sanchez ($4,900) will be on the hill for the Blue Jays. He’s faced the Yankees once already and lasted 5 1/3 innings, allowing seven runs on nine hits for a -1.2 DKFP total. Sanchez essentially has been a disaster the entire season and is averaging two, yes TWO DKFP over his past 10(!) starts. That’s a span of 44 innings in which he’s allowed 44 runs on 60 hits with a 31:29 K:BB ratio. Furthermore, in the month of June, Sanchez allowed a .434 wOBA with a 6.09 xFIP and seven home runs. Interested in the Yankees yet?
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns for tonight!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Adam Wainright, .389, 5.01, Jesse Chavez, .234, 3.88
Ivan Nova, .375, 4.97, Chase Anderson, .238, 4.57
Eduardo Rodriguez, .369, 3.44, Sonny Gray, .242, 2.99
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Chase Anderson, .387, 4.72, Mike Clevinger, .160, 2.11
Aaron Sanchez, .377, 6.07, Kenta Maeda, .205, 3.73
Ivan Nova, .368, 4.50, Gerrit Cole, .256, 2.52
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Nelson Cruz, MIN, $4900, 100%
Hunter Renfroe, SD, $4700, 85.7%
Mitch Garver, MIN, $5300, 80%
Miguel Cabrera, DET, $3600, 80%
Jonathan Schoop, MIN, $4000, 75%
Pitcher to Build AroundCaleb Smith, MIA vs. NYM, $8,600 — The majority of the most expensive pitchers don’t feel all that enticing tonight so I’ve found myself rostering Smith. He’ll be at home, where he’s pitched his best baseball, facing a Mets team that has one of the highest K% in the league against lefties at 23.6%. When pitching at home, Smith sports a solid .228 wOBA with a 2.76 xFIP with only two of the 15 home runs he’s allowed on the season. While the Mets do have some good power against lefties with a .197 ISO, I really like the strikeout upside Smith has in this matchup coupled with his $8,600 salary.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForEduardo Escobar, ARI at STL, $4,800 — I’m intrigued with Escobar despite playing in an unfavorable Busch Stadium tonight. He’ll be taking on Adam Wainwright ($8,100), who surprisingly is pitching well but is having trouble with lefties. In those splits, Wainwright has a .389 wOBA and a 5.01 xFIP with seven of his 13 home runs allowed. At home it doesn’t get much better with a .356 wOBA and a 4.14 xFIP. With the way Escobar has been hitting, I have no problem paying up for him here. He sports a .347 wOBA and a .222 ISO against righties on the road.
Save Big by Drafting…Jason Kipnis, CLE vs. MIN, $3,600 — The salary on Kipnis continues to be so low he’s worth taking almost every night. Tonight he’ll be taking on Kyle Gibson ($7,600), who has seen his share of struggles on the road this season. In particular, when he’s facing lefties on the road, Gibson has allowed a .369 wOBA with a 4.06 xFIP and six of the 13 home runs he’s allowed on the season. As for Kipnis, he sports a .388 wOBA, a .197 ISO and three of his seven home runs on the year against righties at home.
Stack Em UpBOS vs. LAD (Kenta Maeda) — We have a lot of good stacking options on this slate. The Yankees stick out immensely, we have a game at Coors Field as well. However, I think one stack that could fly under the radar is the Red Sox against Maeda. When he’s on the road, Maeda is posting a .323 wOBA with a 4.70 xFIP and seven of the 14 home runs he’s allowed. The Red Sox showcase some really good power at home against lefties with a .192 ISO, which ranks 12th in the league. With the way the Red Sox were hitting prior to the break, they’re worth a shot.
Favorite Prop Bet
San Diego Padres OVER 4.5 runs (+120)
Facing a left-handed pitcher is right in the wheelhouse for the Padres this season. In these matchups, they’re posting a .332 wOBA with a .205 ISO. Dallas Keuchel is looking good lately, but this is a matchup the Padres can take advantage of. Keuchel has pitched much better at home than he has at the road through his four starts with Atlanta. Getting plus money is the cherry on top.
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