A short five-game slate is on tap for Monday. The pitching selection is U-G-L-Y but that always means we have a plethora of hitting options to choose from. Let’s dive into all the information for tonight and as always, you can follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ryne Stanek, $4,200, LAD (-265) vs. BAL (+255) — You’ll notice the asterisk next to Stanek, as he’ll only be the opener in this game. Ryan Yarbrough ($6,500) is expected to handle the bulk of the innings after Stanek departs. Regardless, the Rays are huge favorites here over the Orioles at Tropicana Field. Looking at their matchup against the lefty, the Orioles have some pretty poor numbers across the board with a team .307 wOBA, a .162 ISO and a 26 K%, which is the third highest in the league. Yarbrough has yet to face this club but he’s coming into this game having pitched extremely well as of late. He wrapped up the month of June throwing 32 2/3 innings allowing just a .274 wOBA with a 4.04 xFIP. This sets up as a really strong start for him but I always worry about his length out of the bullpen. We’ve seen him pulled after three innings before and we’ve also seen him go seven. It’s tough to gauge but matchup wise, he’s in a great spot.
Highest TotalLAA (+128) vs. TEX (-148) 10.5 runs — The Rangers are the favorites in this one with a 5.5 team total against Jose Suarez ($8,500). He’s only made four starts in the majors this season with the rest of his time spend in Triple-A. In his starts in the majors this season, Suarez has posted a .370 wOBA with a 5.83 xFIP. What he does have going for him is a Rangers team that struggles against lefties. Coming into this game they have a team .293 wOBA and a .160 ISO with a 29.1 K%, the highest in the league. Suarez hasn’t been bad in the minors this year so quite frankly, I could totally see him having a decent start here. The over on their team total if they can get into the Angles bullpen early but quite honestly, I’m not exactly giddy about taking a Rangers club in a matchup they’ve been at their worst.
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Tyler Mahle, .371, 5.22
Adrian Houser, .359, 4.32
Jeff Samardzija, .331, 5.67
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Mike Minor, .255, 4.54
Trevor Williams, .327, 5.16
Ryan Yarbrough, .329, 4.47
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jose Suarez, .370, 5.16
Jimmy Yacabonis, .366, 5.94
Trevor Williams, .302, 4.13
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Ryan Yarbrough, .258, 4.27
Logan Allen, .265, 3.56
Adrian Houser, .270, 2.64
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Eric Thames, MIL, $4900, 75%
Christian Yelich, MIL, $5900, 71.4%
Keston Hiura, MIL, $4000, 71.4%
Renato Nunez, BAL, $3900, 66.7%
Ji-Man Choi, TB, $3700, 66.7%
Pitcher to Build AroundLogan Allen, SD vs. SF, $9,200 — You look at the pitching options for tonight and you can’t help but think “Where’s the rest of the options?” Yeah, what you see is what we get tonight. Nothing really stands out as a MUST but Allen looks to be in one of the best spots. He faces the Giants at home and they’ve been downright brutal against lefties. Entering this game they have a league-worst .285 wOBA and .136 ISO, both of which are lower than the Marlins! They strikeout around league average with a 22.8 K% but beggars can’t be choosers on this slate. Pay up for Allen here.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForYasmani Grandal, MIL vs. CIN, $4,900 — If they’re going to keep batting Grandal leadoff, I’m going to continue to lock him in my lineups. You have to love his matchup against Tyler Mahle ($7,500) who is allowing an overall .372 wOBA and a 5.23 xFIP with 11 of his 15 home runs to lefties. His .310 wOBA against them at home is nice but his xFIP is 5.79, the highest of all his splits. As for Grandal, since moving into the leadoff spot, he’s sporting a .385 wOBA with a .320 ISO and two home runs.
Save Big by Drafting…Kyle Schwarber, CHC vs. PIT, $3,900 — It hasn’t been a great return for Trevor Williams ($8,100) who has made two starts since coming off the injured list. In those starts, he’s gone 11 2/3 innings allowing 11 runs on 17 hits, including four home runs. Tonight, he faces a tough Cubs lineup including Schwarber. Against lefties, Williams has a .327 wOBA with a 5.17 xFIP. Getting Schwarber at a cheap $3,900 salary batting leadoff makes a lot of sense here, especially with a .339 wOBA and a .275 ISO against righties on the road.
Stack Em UpSDP vs. SF (Jeff Samardzija) – – The Padres have been SMASHING at the plate lately. Over the past week, they have a team .403 wOBA, a league-leading .320 ISO (!) and just a 21.6 K%. Now they have the luxury of facing the BIG SCARY SHARK Jeff Samardzija. He is such fraud and has allowed at least four runs in three straight starts, averaging 9.1 DKFP in that span.
Favorite Prop Bet
San Diego Padres to score first and win (+160)I really like these bets, especially if you’re getting plus money on them. The Giants scoring first are slim, as they have the second lowest run average in the first inning at 0.25. The Padres aren’t that much higher but sat at 0.51. What I do like is that through the first time in the order, Samardzija has a .339 wOBA and a 5.27 xFIP. Those numbers are higher than both his second and third time through. The fourth time through is the lowest but we ALL know that won’t happen.
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