Friday night features almost every team in action with 14 games on this slate, which starts at 7:05 p.m. ET. Tonight is going to be a tough night of roster construction, and sacrifices are going to be needed at a couple of positions. With a number of high totals and five pitchers with a salary of $10,000 and above, it’s going to be hard to get in all the guys you love.
Let’s get into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Wade Miley, $9,000, HOU (-250) at BAL (+220) — Miley continues to impress almost every time he takes the mound, averaging 18 DKFP over his past 10 starts. He’ll face the Orioles for the second time this season after previously tossing six innings allowing no runs on six hits while striking out five for 22.7 DKFP. Miley hasn’t been on good on the road as he has at Minute Maid Park and has a .298 wOBA and a 4.90 xFIP with 10 of his 18 home runs allowed on the road.
The Orioles do have a few bats to worry about, specifically Renato Nunez ($3,700), Pedro Severino ($3,600) and Trey Mancini ($4,500). After them, however, the power against lefties drops off dramatically. At $9,000, I think Miley is in a good spot against this Orioles team and has one of the best chances to earn a win with this offense behind him.
Highest TotalHOU (-250) at BAL (+220) 10.5 runs — This game also has the highest projected run total, thanks to the Astros sporting a team total of 6.5 runs. Dylan Bundy ($6,600) and his love for allowing home runs is taking the mound for the Orioles in this matchup. Bundy has been massively inconsistent this season, and while he does possess some great strikeout upside, the ability to give up runs in bunches usually keeps me away. Bundy already has allowed four home runs in the second half through 17 innings after giving up 20 through 91 in the first half. Righties have been his biggest issue at Camden Yards, tagging him with a .400 wOBA, a 4.52 xFIP and 10 of his 24 home runs. The Astros likely will be a very popular stack this evening — and rightfully so.
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Drew Smyly, .457, 6.55, Gio Gonzalez, .166, 3.13
Dakota Hudson, .384, 5.21, Wade Miley, .247, 4.08
Tyler Beede, .360, 5.67, Stephen Strasburg, .248, 3.44
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Brian Johnson, .507, 5.78, Devin Smeltzer, .241, 4.57
Jaime Barria, .408, 5.77, Sean Reid-Foley, .245, 5.56
Kyle Freeland, .391, 5.58, Marcus Stroman, .250, 3.89
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Donovan Solano, SFG, $4100, 80%
Cody Bellinger, LAD, $5400, 73.3%
George Springer, HOU, $5600, 72.7%
Jason Kipnis, CLE, $4100, 72.7%
Curtis Granderson, MIA, $3200, 71.4%
Pitcher to Build AroundRobbie Ray, ARI vs. LAD, $9,800 — I’m not one to go out of my way to roster against the Dodgers, but a case can be made for Ray. He’s made three starts against them spanning 18 1/3 innings, allowing nine runs on 13 hits. Those numbers aren’t great, but what I DO like are the 27 strikeouts he has against them. Thanks to that, he’s averaging 21.2 DKFP on the year against the Dodgers.
Ray likely will give up a few runs in this game, but the strikeout potential is high, as he’s struck out exactly nine in each of these three starts against L.A. Through 29 1/3 innings in the second half, Ray has seen his K% rise from 30.6% to 33.6%.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForAlex Bregman, HOU at BAL, $5,400 — The Astros aren’t going to be a sneaky play by any means, but that won’t dissuade me from using Bregman. Anyone capable of hitting a home run is in play for the Astros. As I mentioned, righties have given Bundy the most issues at Camden Yards and now he faces a lineup full of them and with plenty of power. Bregman has been hitting very well as of late and enters this game averaging 11.8 DKFP with a home run, five doubles, a triple and seven RBI over his past 10 games.
Save Big by Drafting…Albert Pujols, LAA at BOS, $4,000 — Pujols totally is worth using when facing a left-handed pitcher. Tonight is a good spot to use that advice against a poor lefty in Brian Johnson ($7,600). Against lefties on the road, Pujols sports a .381 wOBA with a .355 (!) ISO and seven of his 17 home runs on the season. Weren’t expecting those type of numbers, were you? As for Johnson, he’s pitched only 17 innings this season but has allowed four home runs, three of which were to right-handed bats.
Stack Em UpSTL vs. PIT (Chris Archer) — It’s a road start for Chris Archer ($7,500), so you know it’s time to get some exposure to the opposing team. Archer seems like he’s allergic to pitching on the road, as he has a .351 wOBA, a 4.75 xFIP and 12 of the 25 home runs he’s allowed. The Cardinals have given him issues through three starts already, tagging him for seven runs on 14 hits through 17 innings this season. The Cardinals have been struggling as of late, but this is a good bounce-back spot.
Favorite Prop Bet
Robbie Ray OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-142)
Seeing as Ray registered nine strikeouts three times against this club, I like the prospect of him hitting the over in this game. As I mentioned, Ray has seen a slight bump in his K% since the second half of the season began and in that same span, the Dodgers have a 23.7 K%, which ranks the 12th highest in the league.
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