All 30 teams will be in action this evening with this 15-game fantasy baseball slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. This slate is expected to be full of offense with seven games with a total run projection of at least 10. Let’s get into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zack Wheeler, $10,600, NYM (-220) vs. MIA (+190) – Wheeler and the Mets are huge favorites tonight as they host the Marlins at Citi Field. This is the third start for Wheeler since being activated off the injured list with shoulder fatigue. In his two prior starts against the Pirates and White Sox, Wheeler threw a combined 12 1/3 innings allowing three runs on nine hits with 14 strikeouts, good for an average of 26.2 DKFP. Now he faces a Marlins club that he faced once already, allowing two runs on nine hits and 11 strikeouts through seven innings.
While Wheeler has struggled at times, his overall numbers, especially at Citi Field, have been great. He’ll enter this game with a .275 wOBA with a 3.96 xFIP. I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know but the Marlins are one of the worst offenses in the league and against righties have just a .286 wOBA (29th), .130 ISO (30th) and K% of 24.1 (7th). To say Wheeler will be a popular option tonight is an understatement.
Highest TotalTEX (+170) vs. CLE (-195) 10.5 runs — Four games have a 10.5 total for tonight but of those games, the Indians are the biggest favorites. Sporting a 5.5 team total, the Indians will face Ariel Jurado ($4,400) for the first time this season. Jurado has been really struggling lately and since being moved into the starting rotation sports a .356 wOBA with a 5.03 xFIP and 44% hard-hit rate allowed. Right-handed bats have hit him particularly hard, tagging him with a .342 wOBA, 4.60 xFIP and four home runs. Personally, I have no problem mixing in the lefties as well, as a lot of their power comes from their switch hitters like Francisco Lindor ($5,500), Jose Ramirez ($4,800) and Carlos Santana ($5,000). As you can quickly notice, this is going to be a VERY expensive stack which could help their ownership.
Weather ConcernsNYY @ BAL (Camden Yards) – The biggest threat of rain will likely come during the game, making starting pitching a risky play on this slate. Regardless of the time frame, it looks like they’ll experience a delay at some point, so keep that in mind.
MIL @ PIT (PNC Park) – Same scenario as Baltimore, rain will be around the area so a delay at some point is likely. Keep an eye on this one but as of now, bats seem relatively safe in this one.
TEX @ CLE (Progressive Field) – As one of the highest projected totals of the night, this is one to watch even if you aren’t interested in playing any of them. They’ll be dealing with thunderstorms around the ballpark so this has a real threat of a delay and potentially more. Luckily the rain should be happening before first pitch so it could be more of a delayed start and play scenario.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Anthony DeSclafani, .386, 5.44
Jake Arrieta, .379, 5.42
Mike Foltynewicz, .366, 5.62
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Chase Anderson, .227, 5.00
Zack Greinke, .241, 3.26
Clayton Kershaw, .252, 3.86
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jose Suarez, .407, 5.49
Ariel Jurado, .366, 4.30
Chase Anderson, .362, 4.92
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Anthony DeSclafani, .244, 3.22
Asher Wojciechowski, 248, 3.33
Zack Wheeler, .270, 3.41
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Donovan Solano, SF, $4100, 77.8%
Trevor Story, COL, $5000, 76.9%
Justin Turner, LAD, $4400, 71.4%
Carson Kelly, ARI, $4300, 71.4%
Curtis Granderson, MIA, $2900, 70%
Pitcher to Build AroundZack Greinke, HOU vs. COL, $9,800 — Making his Astros debut, Greinke draws a very favorable matchup against the Rockies at Minute Maid Park. He’s quite familiar with this Rockies club, having already pitched against them four times this season. In those starts, Greinke is averaging 17.5 DKFP — and his last start was his best, striking out nine through seven innings. The Rockies continue to be one of the worst offenses in the league on the road and will enter this game with a .290 wOBA, .159 ISO and 25% strikeout rate. Heading to the pitchers friendly Minute Maid Park won’t do them any favors either, making Greinke one of my favorite plays of the evening.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForEddie Rosario, MIN vs. ATL, $4,800 — Mike Foltynewicz ($6,400) will be back on the mound for the first time since June 22 after being sent down to the minors. He’s been a disaster this season and returns with a .367 wOBA and 5.35 xFIP on the road. He didn’t exactly dominate at Triple-A either, posting a 5.02 xFIP through 10 starts. With some poor numbers across the board and a .366 wOBA and 5.62 xFIP against lefties, Rosario should be in a great spot to capitalize against the returning Folty.
Save Big by Drafting…Mark Canha, OAK vs. CHC, $4,100 — Canha and the Athletics are in Chicago to play the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Tonight, they’ll be taking on Jon Lester ($8,200), who hasn’t looked sharp as of late, averaging just 15 DKFP over his last five starts. Canha on the road against lefties sports a .370 wOBA with a .200 ISO, while Lester against righties at home has allowed nine of his 18 home runs on the season.
Stack Em UpLAD vs. STL (Miles Mikolas) — When Mikolas is away from Busch Stadium, he’s someone you want to target against. His numbers on the road are atrocious, evidenced by the 7.1 DKFP average as well as a .387 wOBA, 4.36 xFIP and 12 of the 17 home runs he’s allowed. Not to mention his struggles against lefties, which this lineup features plenty of. With so many high run totals projected for tonight, I don’t expect the Dodgers to be an overly popular play.
Favorite Prop Bet
New York Mets OVER 4.5 runs (-136)The Marlins will be calling up Hector Noesi to start for them tonight at Citi Field. Noesi hasn’t pitched in the major leagues since 2015 and was pitching overseas since then. His numbers in Triple-A have been nothing impressive and will end with a 4.71 xFIP, 1.9 HR/9, and 40% fly-ball rate. The Mets have been rolling offensively as of late and have averaged 6.8 runs over their last five games. With a poor bullpen behind him, the Mets should be able to hit the over on their 4.5 projection.
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