Tampa Bay Rays v Boston Red Sox

Monday starts off the week with a 12-game slate of baseball starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Once you go through the top three priced pitchers on the slate, it becomes a wasteland of options, making that SP2 spot a tough one to navigate. Let’s jump into all the information for this evening and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Charlie Morton, $10,700, TB (-250) vs. TOR (+215) — Morton and the Rays are massive favorites as they host the Blue Jays at Tropicana Field. This is the second time Morton has faced this club, tossing 4 2/3 innings allowing one run on four hits and four strikeouts, good for only 11.7 DKFP. Morton has put together quite the season since facing this club and brings with him a stellar .249 wOBA and a 2.88 xFIP at home. Against a RHB-heavy lineup, Morton could dominate, as righties have been able to tag him for only a .237 wOBA and a 2.44 xFIP at Tropicana Park. Overall, this pitching selection doesn’t feel all that strong, so I expect Morton to be one of the more popular plays.

Highest Total

KC (+185) at BOS (-215) 12 runs — A huge run total at Fenway Park tonight as Mike Montgomery ($4,800) takes on Rick Porcello ($6,400). Montgomery has started only three games but it’s been a complete disaster, as he’s allowed a .403 wOBA with a 4.60 xFIP and a 45.5% hard-hit rate. The Red Sox are one of the best hitting clubs at home, sporting a .370 wOBA with a .226 ISO. The Royals’ bullpen has been struggling since the break with a team 4.53 xFIP, a 1.47 HR/9 and a 10.1 BB%. Stacking the Red Sox in this spot would be optimal.

With that in mind, the Royals shouldn’t be ignored in this game, either. Porcello has been an absolute disaster and it doesn’t look as if anything will change. Since shutting out the Twins through seven innings back on June 17, Porcello has gone on to allow at least five runs in five of his past seven starts, a span he’s averaging just 4.6 DKFP in. While lefties have hit Porcello much harder than righties, I still have no problem taking those bats in my lineup. Despite their struggles, this Royals lineup still has some pop with guys like Hunter Dozier ($4,700), Jorge Soler ($4,600) and Alex Gordon ($4,100).

Weather Concerns

ATL at MIN (Target Field) — Good chance we see a delay to start this game as rain will be around the area before first pitch. Once it clears out, they should be good for the rest of the evening. I would target this game as normal.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Erick Fedde, .391, 4.81, Lucas Gioltio, .240, 4.17
Rick Porcello, .364, 6.11, Jacob Waguespack, .259, 4.79
Masahiro Tanaka, .354, 4.51, Chris Bassitt, .286, 4.91

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Michael Wacha, .405, 4.96, Luis Castillo, .226, 3.57
Jacob Waguespack, .403, 5.37, Mike Soroka, .234, 3.52
Dario Agrazal, .393, 6.06, Charlie Morton, .234, 3.35

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Nelson Cruz, MIN, $5800, 77.8%
Donovan Solano, SF, $3200, 75%
Matt Wieters, STL, $3700, 75%
Jesus Aguilar, TB, $3300, 75%
Brandon Dixon, DET, $3800, 75%

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Lucas Gioltio, CWS at DET, $11,000 — He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but I think you need to make sure you make him fit. I’m sure you’ve heard this before but the Tigers’ lineup absolutely stinks. The Tigers own the highest K% in the league against right-handed pitching at 26.8%, just edging the Padres. The team’s wOBA and ISO? Yeah, awful. Both are amongst the worst in the league. Giolito is coming off his worst month of the season but still managed a 28.5 K%, which looks appealing seeing how much the Tigers strike out.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. KC, $5,100 — Even if this game didn’t have the highest projected total on the slate, Martinez still would be one of the top options to choose from. At home against lefties has been a prime spot for him offensively, as he enters this game with a .555 wOBA, a .561 ISO and six home runs. Going against Montgomery, who I mentioned earlier has been a total disaster since entering the Royals’ rotation, seems like a matchup you wouldn’t want to miss out on.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Martinez (back) has been scratched from tonight’s lineup.

Save Big by Drafting…

Brian McCann, ATL at MIN, $3,700 — Jake Odorizzi ($8,100) has fallen off in the second half of the season. During that span, Odorizzi has pitched 20 innings and is allowing a .382 wOBA with a 4.88 xFIP. In that same span when he’s facing lefties, he has a .426 wOBA with a 4.91 xFIP. McCann should be batting fifth tonight, putting him in a prime spot in the order in a good matchup. For as cheap as he is, I think he’s a great option at the catcher position.

Stack Em Up

MIL at PIT (Dario Agrazal) — On the surface, Agrazal looks as if he’s been a decent option in the rotation for the Pirates. However, when you pull the curtain back and look at his advanced numbers, they’re downright awful. Despite just a .292 wOBA at PNC Park, Agrazal has a 5.85 xFIP at home and a 6.18 xFIP against righties. His FB% has jumped dramatically in the second half, from 35.2% to 47%, and he already has given up five home runs through 21 innings. I think the Brewers will go overlooked in this spot.

Favorite Prop Bet

Kansas City Royals OVER 4.5 runs (-107)

With the way the Red Sox have been pitching as of late, this total just feels too low. Porcello shouldn’t be in a major league rotation at this point and has allowed 22 runs on 34 hits, including seven home runs through 22 2/3 innings in the second half. That’s good for a .405 wOBA and a 5.54 xFIP. The Royals aren’t an offensive force, but between his poor pitching and the carousel of relievers the Red Sox run out, I can’t see them not hitting the over in this matchup.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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