Houston Astros v St Louis Cardinals

Friday ends the work week with a 12-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We have a number of high-priced pitching options going tonight but most of them aren’t in the most fantasy-friendly matchups. So how exactly should we navigate this slate? Let’s get into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Wade Miley, $9,100, HOU (-286) vs. SEA (+245) — Miley has faced the Mariners three times this season and hasn’t seen much success. Through those starts, he carries a DKFP average of 9.7 thanks to allowing seven runs on 12 hits while striking out only seven through 15 innings. For as good as Miley has been this season, the Mariners have been one of his trouble spots. Naturally, with his success against other teams recently, his salary has risen to $9,100, which is tied for the highest it’s been all season long. For what it’s worth, his best start against this club did happen at Minute Maid Park, as he held the Mariners to just one run but was only able to strike out two. This is a tough spot to pay up for Miley and not one I’ll be looking to take. I feel very good about him getting the win, especially while opposing Yusei Kikuchi ($5,000), but not sure he performs to his salary.

Highest Total

KC (+220) at MIN (-250) 11 runs — The Twins have a huge total tonight at 6.5 runs as they get set to take on Glenn Sparkman. He’s faced the team twice already with mixed results, allowing five runs on 10 hits while striking out six through 12 innings. After tossing a complete-game shutout against the White Sox, Sparkman has fallen back to earth, lasting a combined 10 2/3 innings against the Indians in which he allowed 13 runs (12 earned) on 18 hits, including five home runs. Figuring he also sports a .441 wOBA, a 6.59 xFIP and has allowed 12 of his 19 home runs on the year on the road, I can’t imagine this start going well for ol’ Sparky tonight. Stacking the Twins sounds like a great idea to me.

Weather Concerns

CWS at PHI (Citizens Bank Park) – A chance of rain throughout the night but they might just end up playing through it. I would keep an eye on this one as the day progresses. Keep in mind, this is the only time the White Sox travel to Philly, so they’ll try to make sure all these games play this weekend.

TOR at BAL (Camden Yards) – Very likely this game starts in a delay and then they will play once it’s over. Again, looks as if they’ll be dealing with rain all throughout the evening so they might just play through it.

CIN at ATL (SunTrust Park) – Another game that likely will start in a delay at the least. As of this morning, this looks as if it could be the biggest trouble spot of these three games.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Peter Lambert, .414, 4.63, Wade Miley, .232, 3.73
Glenn Sparkman, .382, 6.14, Robbie Ray, .273, 2.73
Trevor Williams, .378, 5.33, Martin Perez, .273, 3.93

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Joe Ross, .370, 4.22, Mike Clevinger, .231, 2.23
James Paxton, .362, 4.36, Lance Lynn, .267, 2.84
Ivan Nova, .357, 4.45, Sam Gaviglio, .282, 3.72

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Chris Davis, BAL, $2900, 83.3%
Will Smith, LAD, $3200, 77.8%
Stephen Vogt, SF, $4900, 75%
Carson Kelly, ARI, $4200, 72.7%
Alex Bregman, HOU, $4600, 71.4%

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Steven Matz, NYM at PIT, $7,700 — Let me start off by saying this isn’t the safest spot to be using Matz. I want to make it clear his numbers on the road aren’t good at all. He enters this game with a .382 wOBA, a 5.36 xFIP and 16 of the 19 home runs he’s allowed on the season away from Citi Field. Not good, right? What I DO like is the Pirates are one of the worst offenses in the league against left-handed pitching. As of tonight, they have a team .290 wOBA (29th) a .150 ISO (27th), a 78 wRC+ (30th) and a 21.4 K% (19th). Matz just faced this club in his most recent start (at home) and scored 40.3 DKFP, tossing a complete-game shutout while striking out seven. Again, it’s a risk with how poorly Matz has been on the road, but I think he’s bringing some fantastic value against a team that is one of the worst against lefties.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

George Springer, HOU vs. SEA, $5,300 — Targeting against Kikuchi sounds like a great idea. Besides the fact that he’s been a total disaster, he has to face Springer, who has been a force against lefties at home. In these matchups, Springer boasts a .435 wOBA with a .241 ISO. As for Mr. Kikuchi, he brings a .328 wOBA with a 5.06 xFIP and five home runs allowed against righties on the road.

Save Big by Drafting…

Scooter Gennett, SF at COL, $3,500 — Gennett was moved at the trade deadline, heading over to the Giants. He draws a fantastic matchup to make his debut, as he’ll be at Coors Field against Peter Lambert ($5,200). Against lefties at Coors, Lambert has allowed a .433 wOBA with a 5.17 xFIP with four of the 10 home runs he’s allowed this season. Gennett hasn’t regained that power we’ve seen from 2018, but tell me the last time you have someone who hit 23 home runs last season at just $3,500 at Coors Field?

Stack Em Up

HOU vs. SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) — As I mentioned, Kikuchi is downright terrible, even at Safeco Field. The Astros have some of the best numbers in the league against left-handed pitching and bring a .375 wOBA, a .232 ISO and a 140 wRC+ to this game against Kikuchi. When you go back and look at how poorly he’s been on the road, I don’t see how the Astros aren’t one of your top stacking options.

Favorite Prop Bet

Chicago White Sox OVER 3.5 runs (-139)

You might have missed it, but Jason Vargas was traded to the Phillies and will be making his debut tonight in interleague action against the White Sox. Other than it being very amusing that the Phillies are putting their hopes into Vargas, I think the White Sox hit the over in this game. Vargas has been very poor on the road this season and has a .321 wOBA with a 5.53 xFIP with nine of his 14 home runs allowed.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.

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