The majority of the games are being played this afternoon, but tonight still features a six-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Tonight is a hitter-friendly slate as the pitching selection is … not good. After Clayton Kershaw, it’s truly a tough spot to nail down anyone you’d feel good about rostering. Let’s get into all the information and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Clayton Kershaw, $11,800, LAD (-275) at MIA (+230) — No real shock here to see the Dodgers as huge favorites once again as they continue their series against the Marlins. They’ll be sending Kershaw to the hill to take on the Marlins for the second time this season, a start he completely dominated in. Going six innings, Kershaw allowed only two hits and struck out 10, good for 31.7 DKFP, which is his second-highest fantasy output of the season.
As many of you likely know, I’m not a big Kershaw guy, but the guy has flat out mowed down teams as of late, particularly since the calendar turned to July. He’s made six starts in that span and scored at least 25.9 DKFP in five of them. We know this Marlins club hardly poses as a threat to Kershaw and his salary reflects that, being the most expensive on the slate. This isn’t a particularly strong selection of pitchers to choose from, so expect the ownership on Kershaw to be sky-high.
Highest TotalNYM (+128) at ATL (-148) 10.5 runs — The Braves own a 5.5 team total going against Steven Matz ($7,100) at SunTrust Park. I’m not sure what happens to Matz when he leaves Citi Field, but he essentially becomes a puddle on the mound when he’s on the road. Through 55 2/3 innings, Matz has a .381 wOBA, a 5.23 xFIP and 16 of the 20 home runs he’s allowed when he’s pitching on the road. With those numbers, it’s nearly impossible to trust him in a lineup. Matz has not fared well against this Braves team to begin with, going a combined 13 innings allowing nine runs on 13 hits with a 13:5 K:BB ratio. With the Braves being one of the stronger teams against lefties in the league, this is an easy stacking option on this slate.
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Elieser Hernandez, .399, 5.87, Dallas Keuchel, .257, 2.24
Dakota Hudson, .388, 5.28, Clayton Kershaw, .259, 3.91
Edwin Jackson, .378, 5.90, Cole Hamels, .268, 4.19
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Edwin Jackson, .527, 6.42, Clayton Kershaw, .273, 3.47
Dillon Peters, .355, 4.23, Aaron Nola, .289, 3.77
Dallas Keuchel, .355, 4.49, Elieser Hernandez, .292, 4.70
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Jorge Soler, KC, $5100, 71.4%
Bryce Harper, PHI, $4600, 71.4%
Josh Bell, PIT, $5000, 69.2%
Starlin Castro, MIA, $3500, 68%
Hunter Dozier, KC, $5100, 65%
Pitcher to Build AroundClayton Kershaw, LAD at MIA, $11,800 — Eh, whatever. I tried to make a legitimate case for someone else to be the SP1 on this slate but I’d be doing so just to be different. It’s Kershaw and it’s not close. For all the reasons I stated above, Kershaw should be the anchor in your lineup tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForOzzie Albies, ATL vs. NYM, $5,200 — Albies is almost a must when he’s facing a lefty, especially when it’s at home. I went over how poor Matz is on the road, so this matchup feels like a layup. As for Albies, he brings a .467 wOBA and a .295 ISO at home against lefties. He’s been having himself quite the month of August to begin with, hitting three home runs and knocking in seven through 12 games. Even if you aren’t on stacking the Braves, Albies should be in your lineup.
Save Big by Drafting…Miguel Cabrera, DET vs. SEA, $3,600 — I remember my old girlfriend had this ridiculous poster in her room that included the quote “Sing like no one is listening.” Well, Cabrera is “playing like no one is watching” because let’s be honest, no one is paying attention to the Tigers. But thankfully for you guys, I have been paying (somewhat) attention to his hitting as of late. Through the month of August, Cabrera has a .376 wOBA with a .182 ISO and a 40.5% hard-hit rate. All throughout the season, the majority of his power has come against lefties, which sets up well for his matchup against Marco Gonzales ($8,700).
Stack Em UpLAD at MIA (Elieser Hernandez) — Did you see that onslaught the Dodgers had against the Marlins last night? The made a joke out of Marlins Park being a pitcher-friendly ballpark. They have a very good chance of doing more of the same tonight against Hernandez, who has struggled post-All-Star break. In that span, he sports a .366 wOBA with a 6.20 xFIP with five of his 11 total home runs allowed on the season. His numbers against lefties are quite poor as well, sporting a 5.87 xFIP against them overall.
Favorite Prop Bet
Clayton Kershaw OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-134)
I’ve been on a strikeout kick as of late and we’ll continue that again with Kershaw against the Marlins. Since the All-Star break they actually have one of the highest K% in the league, posting a 25.1 K%, which ranks them fifth in the league. We’ve seen Kershaw strike out 10 in their prior matchup, and I have no reason to believe he can’t hit the over in this spot. This just feels way too low.
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