An eight-game slate will start our week Monday night beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. Zack Greinke headlines the pitching options for tonight, but the weather could change those plans quickly if the threat of a postponement continues. Let’s get into all the information for this slate and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zack Greinke, $10,700, HOU (-295) at CWS (+255) — The Astros are huge favorites again this evening as they start their series against the White Sox in Chicago. They’ll send Greinke the mound for his second start in an Astros uniform and hoping for better results. Greinke was shaky against the Rockies, allowing five runs on seven hits and only two strikeouts through six innings.
He’s in a fantastic position to redeem his debut against a White Sox team that has just a .298 wOBA, a .143 ISO and a 25.7 K%, which is the fourth-highest in the league. The White Sox have been struggling offensively as of late and are averaging just 3.4 runs over their past five games, which includes being shut out twice by the Athletics in their most recent series. We have a decent selection of pitching options on this slate, but I think Greinke stands tall amongst the others. That is, of course, if the weather holds off.
Highest TotalARI (-103) at COL (-113) 14 runs — It’s an insane total over at Coors Field this evening with Merrill Kelly ($7,400) and Pete Lambert ($5,700) taking the hill for the Diamondbacks and Rockies, respectively. The D-Backs are slight favorites here and boast a 6.5 team total against Lambert. At Coors Field, Lambert has been tagged with a .399 wOBA, a 5.28 xFIP and nine of the 13 home runs he’s allowed on the season. Lefties have been the bane of his existence, and that bodes well for a D-Backs club that can load up on them. At Coors, lefties have a .400 wOBA, a 5.21 xFIP with five of those home runs this season against Lambert.
It’ll be expensive, but it’s hard to not love the top of the D-Backs’ order that usually features Jarrod Dyson ($5,300), Ketel Marte ($5,500), Eduardo Escobar ($5,500) and David Peralta ($4,900), all of whom bat from the left side. I much prefer the D-Backs’ side of this game to the Rockies’ despite the massive total.
Weather ConcernsHOU at CWS (Guaranteed Rate Park) – There are some legitimate concerns if this game will even play this evening with a ton of rain in the forecast. They do have a window to potentially squeeze this game in, but it’s going to be tight. As of this morning, the starting pitchers could be risky, so make sure to check the forecast later today.
Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the White Sox and Astros has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Peter Lambert, .408, 4.86, Zack Greinke, .252, 3.40
Dylan Cease, .403, 5.56, Zach Plesac, .258, 5.12
Anthony DeSclafani, .378, 5.47, Jose Suarez, .270, 4.98
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jose Suarez, .433, 5.71, Anthony DeSclafani, .261, 3.30
Peter Lambert, .362, 4.49, Zack Greinke, .271, 4.21
Gabriel Ynoa, .353, 5.01, Joey Lucchesi, .289, 4.40
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Teoscar Hernandez, TOR, $4000, 77.8%
Eugenio Suarez, CIN, $4500, 72.7%
Joey Votto, CIN, $3800, 71.4%
Francisco Mejia, SDP, $3400, 69.2%
Danny Santana, TEX, $5000, 66.7%
Pitcher to Build AroundJoey Lucchesi, SD vs. TB, $10,000 — If the weather works out in Chicago, Greinke would be the top option on this slate. Until then, Lucchesi is a fine replacement going against the Rays. This will be played over at Petco Park, so Jesus Aguilar likely will be out of the lineup with no DH. Then we factor in how poor the Rays have been against lefties, sporting just a team .316 wOBA, a .169 ISO and a 24 K%. Lucchesi has been much, MUCH better at Petco Park, where he has a .250 wOBA, a 3.96 xFIP and only six of the 16 home runs he’s allowed. I think this is a great spot for him against a weaker-than-usual Rays lineup.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForEduardo Escobar, ARI at COL, $5,500 — If you’re looking to take at least one hitter in this Coors Field game, Escobar would be my choice. Batting third in the lineup, Escobar comes into this game with a .334 wOBA and a .242 ISO against right-handed pitching with 17 of his 26 home runs on the season. While he hasn’t been getting on base as much in the second half of the season, the power has been better with eight home runs and three doubles through 27 games. As I mentioned, Lambert has been hit the hardest by opposing lefties, so Escobar should be considered one of the top options.
Save Big by Drafting…Joey Votto, CIN at WAS, $3,800 — It’s been a while since I wrote up Votto for anything. To his credit, he’s been hitting well as of late and enters this game averaging 8.7 DKFP over his past 10 games with two home runs, three doubles and five RBI. Tonight he’ll be facing Erick Fedde ($6,200), who against lefties has a .366 wOBA with a 4.70 xFIP. Even with Votto hitting better recently, he’s still quite cheap on this slate and will help make some of the more expensive bats fit.
Stack Em UpCLE vs. BOS (Eduardo Rodriguez) — We have the obvious stacking choices over in Colorado, but I think the Indians also are worth consideration. Rodriguez has struggled on the road this season and has a .343 wOBA with a 4.59 xFIP against righties in this matchup. The Indians improved their numbers against lefties with the moves for Franmil Reyes ($3,200) and Yasiel Puig ($4,100), both of whom have at least a .180 ISO against lefties. Despite some good numbers in the second half, E-Rod has been struggling with his command and faces an Indians club that is tough to strike out. I think this ends up as an underrated stack tonight.
Favorite Prop Bet
Red Sox OVER 4.5 runs (-125)
It’s a low total for the Red Sox, who’ll be facing Zac Plesac at Progressive Field. Plesac has been good, don’t get me wrong, but good lord, look at his game log. He’s been able to feast against the Rangers, Tigers, Orioles and Royals. His 5.14 xFIP overall really makes me think he’s in for a world of shock very soon, and the Red Sox are in a prime spot to do so.
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