The MLB Trade Deadline provided some late fireworks that helped changed the landscape of the American League. Now that the dust has settled, we’ll start to see some of these teams runs out new lineups and new looking rotations. That will start tonight on this six-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into all the information you’ll need and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Clayton Kershaw, $10,700, LAD (-210) vs. SDP (+180) — Kershaw and the Dodgers are the big favorites tonight as they take on the Padres and Joey Lucchesi ($7,400). This will be the fourth start that Kershaw makes against this club and has pitched a total of 20 innings, allowing eight runs (seven earned) on 16 hits while striking out 20 for an average of 21 DKFP. The Padres have been very good against opposing lefties, sporting a .340 wOBA with a .210 ISO and a 110 wRC+. They do, however, strikeout a lot as well with a 24.1 K%, the eighth highest in the league. While I’m personally not one to take Kershaw often, he is on a very nice stretch of games and is averaging 26.1 DKFP over his last five games. His schedule hasn’t been easy either as those games include the Rockies at Coors Field, the Nationals and this Padres club. I think he’s a great option for tonight, which if I’m saying that, he really must be.
Highest TotalTB (+114) vs. BOS (-129) 10.5 runs — This is one of two games that have a projected run total of 10.5 runs. The Red Sox are the bigger favorites of this game so we’ll talk about this matchup between Brendan McKay ($6,300) and Andrew Cashner ($5,400). The Red Sox have a team total of 5.5 runs, which is tied with both the Blue Jays and the Astros for the highest on the slate. McKay is getting called up from Triple-A to make this start, his fifth of the season in the majors. Aside from his last start against the White Sox, McKay has pitched well thus far and has an overall .274 wOBA and a 3.86 xFIP as a starter. Even with a limited amount of pitchers to target against, this wouldn’t be my first choice. If anything, I’d be more inclined to stack against Cashner, who has allowed a total of 12 runs through 17 2/3 innings since joining the Red Sox.
Weather ConcernsCIN @ ATL (SunTrust Park) – Rain will be in the area of the ballpark, potentially putting this game in a delay. It looks as if they’ll be able to play this game but its worth a check later this afternoon.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Anthony DeSchafani, .385, 5.48
Asher Wojciechowski, .384, 6.25
Trent Thornton, .348, 4.64
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Andrew Cashner, .257, 4.72
Max Fried, .263, 3.24
Clayton Kershaw, .264, 4.00
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Max Fried, .346, 3.62
Andrew Cashner, .346, 4.96
Trent Thornton, .334, 5.27
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Asher Wojciechowski, .183, 2.83
Anthony DeSclafani, .242, 3.20
Gerrit Cole, .260, 2.59
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Chris Davis, BAL, $3,000, 100%
Wil Myers, SDP, $3,300, 76.9%
Alex Bregman, HOU, $4,700, 72.7%
Robinson Chirinos, HOU, $3,900, 66.7%
Will Smith, LAD, $3,600, 66.7%
Pitcher to Build AroundClayton Kershaw, LAD vs. SDP, $10,700 — As I mentioned earlier, I really like this spot for Kershaw against the Padres at Dodger Stadium. The loss of Franmil Reyes (who was traded to the Indians) really makes going after this Padres lineup more enticing on a day to day basis. When he was traded, they rid themselves of one of their best power bats. Kershaw has done well against this Padres club and I’d rather take the chance with him than go for Gerrit Cole ($11,300) against a very tough Indians lineup.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
EDITOR’S NOTE: d’Arnaud is not in the starting lineup for tonight’s game.
Save Big by Drafting…Jason Heyward, CHC vs. STL, $3,600 — Heyward gives us some really good value this evening as he takes on Jack Flaherty ($8,600) at Busch Stadium. Flaherty has really struggled against lefties and enter this game with a .337 wOBA, a 4.93 xFIP and 12 of the 21 home runs he’s allowed on the season. As for Heyward, he’s thrived in these type of matchups on the road and has a .359 wOBA with a .207 ISO and nine of his 15 home runs he’s hit. Not too shabby numbers for a player that will only run you for $3,600.
Stack Em UpATL vs. CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) — This stack will specifically focus on the lefties on the Braves, as it’s the biggest weakness for DeSclafani ($7,300). Despite being very tough against righties, DeSclafani has a .411 wOBA, a 5.53 xFIP and six of his 19 home runs allowed against lefties on the road. The heart of the Braves lineup should feature Freddie Freeman ($5,100), Ozzie Albies ($4,200) and Brian McCann ($3,700) which makes for an affordable three-man stack. If you want to take it further, Johan Camargo ($3,000) will likely be batting sixth and is dirt cheap.
Favorite Prop Bet
Baltimore Orioles OVER 4.5 runs (-125)I totally understand that Thornton did well against the Orioles in his last start but I don’t believe lightning will strike twice. Aside from that good start against the Orioles, Thornton has allowed four, five, seven, five and two earned runs in his last five starts. On the road, Thornton has a .323 wOBA with a 5.24 xFIP. Not to mention he’s coming off the injured list, which is always a favorite scenario of mine to target against.
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