Friday night brings us a 13-game slate of baseball. Let’s jump right into all the info, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Trevor Bauer vs. Chicago White Sox ($9,500) — Bauer and the Indians are huge favorites tonight against the Chicago White Sox. This will be the second time that he’s faced off against this White Sox club, having pitched 6 1/3 innings allowing two runs on three hits with nine strikeouts earlier this month. Bauer isn’t overly expensive in this matchup either, as he’s $1,800 cheaper than Zack Greinke, who faces the Royals. As long as Bauer has his command, he’s in a great spot against a White Sox team that owns a 23.5 K% in September, which ranks as the seventh highest during that span.
L.A. Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies — 12 projected runs — The Dodgers and Rockies are projected at 12 runs tonight at Coors Field, with the Dodgers as the slightest favorites. I like them in this spot against Chad Bettis, who hasn’t pitched much this season but has produced disastrous results. In 24 1/3 innings at Coors Field, Bettis owns a .353 wOBA with a .543 SLG with a 26% hard-hit rate. Another reason I like the Dodgers tonight is that they’re relatively cheap for playing in Coors Field, with the majority of their starters in the mid-$4K range. Getting a few of those players still leaves you room to comfortably fill out your lineup.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians (Progressive Field) — Rain will be around the area during game time, so a delay is entirely possible here. Keep an eye on this one closer to first pitch.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Coors Field — L.A. Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies — As always, Coors Field is home to our most favorable ballpark for hitters of the evening. All offensive categories get the nod here.
- Globe Life Park — Oakland A’s vs. Texas Rangers — Globe Life Park is our No. 2 ballpark for hitters on this 13-game slate. All offensive categories are favored here.
- Marlins Park — Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins — Marlins Park is our worst ballpark for hitters on the night. All categories favor the pitchers in Miami.
- AT&T Park — San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants — AT&T Park is our second-worst ballpark for hitters on the evening. Heading into this contest against the Padres, only triples are favored here.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Matt Harvey||1.023||.323||Charlie Morton||.555||.172|
|Jordan Lyles||1.005||.344||Stephen Strasburg||.577||.195|
|Hyun-Jin Ryu||.945||.325||Chase Anderson||.603||.211|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Marco Gonzales||.951||.353||Doug Fister||.565||.203|
|Chad Bettis||.907||.326||Stephen Strasburg||.610||.223|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Nolan Arenado||Hyun-Jin Ryu||14||4.14|
|Khris Davis||Martin Perez||16||3.68|
|Brian Dozier||Matt Boyd||27||2.37|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Chase Anderson, MIL vs. STL ($9,100) — With the Cardinals officially eliminated from the playoffs, you have to imagine they’ll be running out their “B” lineup tonight. With that lineup, I like this spot for Anderson at $9,100. On the road, Anderson has posted a .288 wOBA with a .354 SLG and a 9.2 K/9. While Anderson has allowed eight runs against this Cardinals club in the past 16 2/3 innings, he does sport a K/9 of 9.7.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Brian Dozier, MIN vs. DET ($4,800) — With Dozier getting the night off yesterday, he should draw the start tonight against Matt Boyd. It’s certainly a favorable spot for him, as Dozier has crushed left-handed pitching all season long. At home in these matchups, Dozier sports .492 wOBA with a .742 SLG and a .474 OBP. Boyd against righties on the road owns a .361 wOBA with six of his 16 home runs.
Save Big by Drafting …
Chase Utley, LAD vs. COL ($3,200) — It’s not often that a player at Coors Field makes the value section of my article, but Utley does just that tonight. He’ll take on Chad Bettis, who sports a .371 wOBA against lefties in his short time in the majors this season with a .577 SLG and four of his eight home runs. Even with Utley having a down year, he’s simply too cheap for me to ignore at Coors at this price point.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.