Thursday night brings us an eight-game slate of baseball. Let’s jump right into all the info, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Lance Lynn vs. Chicago Cubs – ($6,400) – The Cardinals and Lance Lynn are the heavy favorites tonight as they take on the Cubs. While it might not make sense on the surface, the Cubs will be rolling out essentially a Triple-A lineup tonight with four starters in the mix. With that, Lynn is a huge value tonight at just $6,400. He’s fresh off his worst start of the season against the Pirates, where he lasted just 2/3 of an inning allowing eight runs on six hits for a whopping -17.3 fantasy points. With no real data on the Cubs minor leaguers in this lineup tonight, it’s certainly is a bit risky to roll out Lynn, but his price tag is just too low to ignore in what should be a favorable matchup.
Oakland A’s vs. Texas Rangers – 10.5 projected runs – The A’s own the highest projected run total of the night at 5.5, as they face the Rangers and Miguel Gonzalez. This will be the second start in the row facing the A’s for Gonzalez, where he pitched six innings allowing one run on four hits with a 5:0 K:BB ratio. While that looks good, the start did come in Oakland, which certainly is a much more favorable spot for Gonzalez. He’s only made one start at Globe Like Park as a Ranger, so looking overall at his time since the trade from the White Sox, Gonzalez sports a .380 wOBA in 16.1 innings with a .556 SLG with five home runs. In the much more favorable Globe Life Park, the A’s should have a much better performance against the Rangers.
No weather concerns for tonight!
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Globe Life Park – Oakland A’s vs. Texas Rangers – Globe Life Park is our number one ballpark for hitters tonight. All offensive categories are favored here.
- *Yankee Stadium – Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees – Yankee Stadium is our second most favorable ballpark for hitters. Runs and home runs are favored here.
- Marlins Park – Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins – Marlins Park is our worst ballpark for hitters on the night. All categories favor the pitchers in Miami.
- Busch Stadium – Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Busch Stadium is our second least favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. No offensive categories are favored in St. Louis.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Dylan Covey||.915||.283||Danny Duffy||.440||.160|
|Miguel Gonzalez||.867||.288||Jake Faria||.514||.163|
|Ivan Nova||.844||.302||Sean Manaea||.598||.230|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Dylan Covey||1.075||.341||Brad Peacock||.504||.172|
|Edwin Jackson||1.019||.296||Lance Lynn||.608||.205|
|Sean Manaea||.820||.284||Kyle Hendricks||.638||.241|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Andrew McCutchen||Edwin Jackson||36||2.88|
|Matt Wieters||Ivan Nova||39||2.58|
|Marcell Ozuna||Julio Teheran||39||2.33|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Sonny Gray – NYY vs. TB – $11,700 – While we do have some pitchers that bring tremendous value on this slate, I can’t deny the upside the Gray carries against the Rays. He’s faced this club three times already and has allowed six runs on 21 hits in 20.1 innings with a K/9 of 11. Strikeouts are always king and Gray has the best opportunity to rack them up tonight. On the road, the Rays currently sport a .315 wOBA with a .428 SLG and a K% of 23.2%, which ranks eighth in the league.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Khris Davis – OAK vs. TEX – $4,000 – It’s more important than ever to pay attention to lineups, as many players are on rest due to playoffs or other reasons. Davis at $4K feels like a value play in my opinion, but he’s still my stud to take. Hitting in a favorable ballpark like Globe Life Park and facing Miguel Gonzalez checks all the boxes for someone I’d want to roster this evening. Davis has mashed against the Rangers this season, hitting six of his home runs with 11 RBIs.
Save Big by Drafting…
Ian Kinsler – DET vs. KC – $3,700 – Kinsler has found his way into this section of my article quite often lately, but he remains way too cheap to ignore. At just $3,700, you’ll grab the Ian Kinsler that sports 11.7 fantasy points over his last 10 games with four home runs and three doubles. He faces off against Danny Duffy, who against righties owns a .328 wOBA with a .434 SLG with 11 of his 13 home runs allowed.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.