Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: July 11 MLB Slate Breakdown

WATCH: Why Machado was one of Tuesday’s top fantasy stars

Wednesday night provides an 11-game slate of fantasy baseball with almost no weather concerns to watch out for. With a good mix of pitching and hitting matchups, tonight should be a great night to play. Let’s jump right into all the information you’ll need and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Chris Sale, BOS vs. TEX, $13,000 — Sale and the Red Sox are massive — and I mean MASSIVE — favorites tonight against the Rangers. Opening with just a run projection of 3, that number has since dropped to 2.7 runs for Texas since this morning. Sale has faced this club once already, scoring 37.6 DKFP, allowing one run on four hits through seven innings with 12 strikeouts. Sale has also scored at least 29 DKFP in six straight starts while striking out at least 10 in all but one of those starts.

Sale is in the midst of a ridiculous run, as since the beginning of June he owns a .202 wOBA with a 1.17 FIP and a K/9 of 13.8. Expect Sale to be one of the more popular plays on the slate despite his $13K salary, which is the highest among all pitchers.

Highest Totals

ARI at COL, 11.5 runs — Coors Field was disappointing last night, as only eight runs were scored. Tonight the game owns an even higher overall run projection at 11.5 runs with the Rockies opening at 6.2 projection. Shelby Miller ($4,500) is taking the hill for the Diamondbacks, making his fourth start since returning from Tommy John surgery. It’s been a lackluster start, as he’s averaged just 8.2 DKFP against the Padres, Giants and Marlins. It’s still early, but Miller allowing an absurd 61 percent hard-hit rate is concerning, or beneficial, depending on your stance. I think the Rockies will make up for last night, as I can’t imagine Miller will get through this start unscathed.

NYY at BAL, 9.5 runs — These two teams are once again in our highest projected game outside of Coors Field. The Yankees opened with a 5.3 run projection against Dylan Bundy ($6,100). Bundy is surprisingly taking on the Yankees for the first time this season, and he’ll do so at home. Bundy has been the definition of boom or bust this season, ranging from DK point totals of -18.2 to 30.2 in back-to-back starts (true story). This is not an ideal spot for Bundy, who at home owns a .335 wOBA with a 4.81 FIP with a 32 percent hard-hit rate allowed. His extremely low salary does give him some GPP appeal, but that’s about as far as I’d go with him.

Weather Concerns

TOR at ATL (SunTrust Park) — We could see some rain roll through at some point, but it’s not enough to create a meaningful delay. I wouldn’t worry about it too much and target this game as normal.

Park Factors

Coors Field, ARI at COL Coors Field is on this slate, so it’s our most favorable ballpark on the night. As always, all offensive categories are favored.

Fenway Park – TEX at BOS Fenway Park is our second-most favored ballpark tonight as the Red Sox continue their series against the Rangers. All offensive categories except home runs are favored here.

Citi Field, PHI at NYM The Phillies travel to tonight’s worst offensive ballpark: Citi Field. As you’d expect, no offensive categories are favored here.

Marlins Park, MIL at MIA The Brewers continue their series in Miami, our second-worst offensive ballpark for hitters. As you’d expect, no offensive categories are favored.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Tyler Mahle.939.272Chris Sale.433.164
Dylan Bundy.870.311Chris Bassitt.552.229
Vincent Velasquez.835.251Joey Lucchesi.555.213

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Jaime Barria.900.282Freddy Peralta.237.058
Sonny Gray.841.292Jacob deGrom.475.178
Bartolo Colon.810.259Mike Foltynewicz.564.202

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Paul GoldschmidtGerman Marquez154.6
Tim BeckhamSonny Gray163.18
DJ LeMahieuShelby Miller192.68

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Chris Sale, BOS vs. TEX, $13,000 — Sorry guys, no need to get cute on this slate. Sale is by far the best option on this slate and, unfortunately, everyone will know it. Still, fading him is just too risky with the way he’s been pitching. Now, the case can always be made to not play him, especially in GPPs.

I do like Seattle LHP Marco Gonzales ($7,000) a lot as well. The Angels have been a tough team to strike out, but through three starts, Gonzales owns an 11.1 K/9 through 17 innings against them. For what it’s worth, a Sale/Gonzales pairing leaves you with an average of $3,750 per hitter, which sounds quite appealing if you ask me.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Andrew Benintendi, BOS vs. TEX, $5,300 — With the seasons Mookie Betts ($6,000) and J.D. Martinez ($5,600) are having, it’s easy to forget Benintendi is having one himself. I really like this spot for him against Texas RHP Bartolo Colon ($4,100), especially at Fenway Park. At home against righties, Benintendi owns a .446 wOBA with a .282 ISO and a 34 percent hard-hit rate. Oh, does it matter he’s also averaging 12.1 DKFP over his past 10 games?

Save Big by Drafting…

Marcell Ozuna, STL at CWS, $3,300 — Ozuna is dirt cheap and gets a matchup against White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon ($6,000). While he hasn’t been hitting lefties as well as previous years, he still owns a .327 wOBA against them with a 47 percent hard-hit rate on the year. Rodon has had some issues with the home run ball in the early going, averaging just under two per nine innings since he returned from the disabled list. With Ozuna as cheap as he is, I feel it’s worth taking a shot on the Cardinals’ outfielder.

Stack Em Up

CLE vs. CIN (Tyler Mahle) — Give me all the Indians that bat from the left side tonight. Mahle ($6,800) struggles immensely against lefties, allowing a .396 wOBA with a 6.54 FIP and 12 of his 16 home runs allowed. This Indians lineup will be loaded with batters on the left side, so this should be a complete smash spot for them. They’ll be tough to load up on if you’re taking the likes of Sale, but they also have guys like Jason Kipnis ($3,700), Yonder Alonso ($3,800) and Tyler Naquin ($2,900) that could help get you some cheap exposure as well.

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