Thursday will feature a short, six-game slate of fantasy baseball. Make sure to be following @DKLive for the latest MLB news updates and lineup information. As always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Top PitcherJ.A. Happ, NYY vs. TEX, $9,300 — The returning Happ and the Yankees are the largest favorites tonight as they host the Rangers at Yankee Stadium. Happ, who landed on the DL due to hand, foot and mouth disease, missed minimal time and should be ready to go tonight. I must admit, I’m a bit surprised how heavily the Yankees are favored, as the Rangers have been a good hitting club against lefties. They enter tonight with a .345 wOBA against southpaws with a .182 ISO and a 23 K% on the year. They aren’t scuffling at the plate lately either, as they own a .376 wOBA and a .223 ISO, both of which lead the league over the past two weeks. I’ll be staying away from Happ in this spot — I might even stack the Rangers.
Highest TotalsLAD at COL, 10.5 runs — The Dodgers head to Coors Field for a series against the Rockies for the highest run total of the night. The Dodgers have bumped up to a 5.7 run projection against lefty Tyler Anderson ($5,900), who faces this club for the third time. In those prior starts, Anderson has thrown 13 innings, allowing five runs on 11 hits with a 12:4 K:BB ratio for an average of 19 DKFP. The Dodgers are average at best against lefties, owners of a .322 wOBA and a .175 ISO. They’ve also haven’t been exactly crushing the ball either, with a .304 wOBA and a .162 ISO over the past two weeks. If I’m taking any Dodgers for this game, I’d be going with Max Muncy ($5,000), Matt Kemp ($4,200) and Manny Machado ($5,400).
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns tonight!
Coors Field, LAD at COL — Whenever Coors is on the slate, it tops our list as our most favorable ballpark for the night. As always, all offensive categories are favored here.
Miller Park, SD at MIL — Miller Park is our second-most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight as the Brewers host the Padres. Singles are the only category that isn’t favored toward hitters.
Tropicana Field, BAL at TB — The Trop checks in as our least favorable ballpark tonight as the Rays host the Orioles. No offensive categories grab the nod here.
Minute Maid Park, SEA at HOU —The Astros will host the Mariners in our second-least favorable ballpark. Triples (?!) are the only category that is favored here.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|David Hess||.886||.290||Andrew Suarez||.509||.210|
|Ivan Nova||.866||.298||J.A. Happ||.512||.182|
|Tyler Anderson||.853||.287||Justin Verlander||.616||.185|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|David Hess||.876||.278||Justin Verlander||.553||.199|
|Andrew Suarez||.853||.304||James Paxton||.598||.200|
|Ivan Nova||.761||.263||Ryan Borucki||.646||.250|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Francisco Lindor||Jake Odorizzi||11||4.09|
|Jose Ramirez||Jake Odorizzi||11||2.63|
|Kyle Seager||Justin Verlander||25||2.92|
|Justin Smoak||Rick Porcello||37||2.89|
|Evan Longoria||Ivan Nova||44||2.13|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build AroundJames Paxton, SEA at HOU, $10,600 — This Astros lineup is beaten up, plain and simple. Tonight, the ‘Stros be without Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and George Springer. Looking at the lineup they used in their previous game, which was against a lefty, this club has five players with at least a 23.7 K% against lefties. These players also combined for just a .328 wOBA, which hardly is a number that would take you off Paxton. Let’s not forget, Paxton has faced this team three times already and has averaged 28.4 DKFP through 20 2/3 innings with a 21:4 K:BB ratio.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForDidi Gregorius, NYY vs. TEX, $4,900 — The Yankees are projected for 5.7 runs against Ariel Jurado ($4,200) at Yankee Stadium. Gregorius should be one of the focal points in this offense tonight, as his numbers against righties are fantastic. Entering this game, he sports a .406 wOBA with a .289 ISO with 11 of his 20 home runs. This won’t be a sneaky play by any means, but I think it would be a mistake leaving him on the board.
Save Big by Drafting…Josh Harrison, PIT at SF, $3,800 — This is more of a play based on how poor Andrew Suarez ($5,100) is against righties rather than how Harrison is against lefties. On the year, Suarez is allowing a .366 wOBA against righties with a 4.68 FIP with 14 of his 15 home runs allowed. If anything, this is also a plus play for all the righties in the Pirates’ lineup. At his low $3,800 salary, Harrison easily could exceed value here.
Stack Em UpNYY at TEX (Ariel Jurado) — The Yankees should smash here. As you’d expect, the Yankees are one of the best hitting clubs at home, sporting a .345 wOBA with a .196 ISO and a 117 wRC+. If — I’m sorry WHEN — Juardo is knocked out early, the Rangers don’t have a stellar bullpen to lean on, so the offense could continue throughout the evening.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.