This afternoon brings us a nine game slate (the slate does not include the 1:07 start for DET/TOR) to kick off the day. I’ll give you some of my favorite targets for this afternoon. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Julio Teheran – ATL vs. CHW – $12,300 – Teheran is supposedly over his thigh infection that contributed to one of his worst starts of the season against the Marlins. In that start, Teheran allowed five runs on a season high 11 hits with a 6:0 K:BB ratio. Amazingly, before this start, Teheran had not allowed more than five hits in a game since April 25th! He takes on the White Sox this afternoon, a team that owns a .307 wOBA with a .313 OBP and a .397 SLG. The White Sox strikeout at a decent clip against righties with a 21.2 K%. Teheran has been at his best on the road this season, owning a 2.10 ERA with a 0.66 WHIP. He may be a bit expensive today at $12,300, but if we get the Teheran we’ve seen before the Miami start, he should be sitting pretty this afternoon.
Carlos Martinez – STL vs. MIL – $9,300 – Martinez is nicely priced this afternoon at just $9,300 as he takes on the Brewers. This will be the second time he’s faced this Brewers team this season where had one of his best starts of the season. In that game, Martinez pitched eight innings allowing no runs on five hits with an 8:1 K:BB ratio. I’ve said it before, and I’ve reminded you many times, the Brewers currently lead the league in K% against righties this season at 25.9%. Martinez owns a 7.1 K/9 on the season and could be in line for a great start at a reasonable price this afternoon.
Adam Conley – MIA vs. CIN – $8,000 – Adam Conley isn’t the sexiest name on any slate, but his matchup against the Reds this afternoon intrigues me. The Reds have not hit left-handed batters well at all this season. Coming into this game, they own a .308 wOBA, which ranks 23rd in the league, to go with a .305 OBP and a .411 SLG. Conley has been most successful at home this season, averaging 16.2 FPPG with an 8.3 K/9. With the Reds ranking 12th in K% against lefties at 22.5%, Conley becomes quite the value play on the afternoon.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF) – CIN vs. SDP – $5,500 – As recent as July 1st, Stanton was priced at $3,400. Those days may be long gone, as Stanton seems to have fully recovered from his early season woes. At $5,500, Stanton matches up with John Lamb this afternoon, who has allowed 10 of his 12 home runs to right handed batters. On the season, Stanton owns a .376 wOBA against lefties with a .583 SLG and a .333 ISO. I think we’ve entered the days of Stanton becoming a strong consideration again on a daily basis.
Xander Bogaerts (SS) – BOS vs TBR – $4,500 – Bogaerts at $4,500 against a left-handed pitcher is what dreams are made of. Taking on Matt Moore today, Bogaerts owns a .389 wOBA against lefties with a .483 SLG. Those numbers get even better at home against lefties, where his wOBA jumps up to .412 with a .500 SLG. Moore has really struggled on the road this season, owning a .383 wOBA overall and a .373 against righties. This should be a great spot for Xander.
Jake Lamb (3B) – ARZ vs. SFG – $5,400 – It’s a bit disappointing that this game takes place in AT&T Park and not Chase Field, as Lamb would easily be the number one option for this afternoon. Nonetheless, he takes on Jake Peavy who has had struggles with lefties all season. Peavy owns a .379 wOBA against them with a .523 SLG. Surprisingly, Peavy has only allowed two home runs to lefties while righties have eight. While I don’t expect a big fly from Lamb, his .429 wOBA against righties makes him a dynamic play today.
Mark Trumbo (OF) – BAL vs. LAA – $5,100 – Trumbo has 27 home runs on the season and looks to continue to add to his huge numbers. He faces off against Nick Tropeano today in Camden Yards, where Trumbo owns 13 of those 27 bombs. Tropeano is allowing a .365 wOBA to righties on the road with four of his 10 home runs allowed. Trumbo is essentially an automatic at home this season.
Francisco Lindor (SS) – CLE vs. NYY – $4,100 – Lindor has been a solid contributor at the shortstop position this season. Lindor is batting .300 on the season with 10 home runs 44 RBIs and a .453 SLG. He gets CC Sabathia today, who has been pitching better as of late, but is in a run of three average to below average starts. A switch-hitter, Lindor owns a .336 wOBA against lefties with a .443 SLG. Lindor has been his best at home and looks to exploit the weakness of Sabathia in a pure hitters park like Progressive Field.
Buster Posey (CATCH) – SFG vs. ARZ – $4,100 – Posey feels a bit cheap for this matchup today and we can reap the benefit of it. Posey has been hitting left-handed pitchers well this season, owning a .412 wOBA with a .571 SLG. Robbie Ray draws the start for the Diamondbacks this afternoon and has been having issues with righties all season. They own a .361 wOBA with a .472 SLG against him coming into this start.
Ji-Man Choi (1B/OF) – LAA vs. BAL – $3,400 – C.J. Cron suffered a broken hand last night after getting hit by a pitch, so Choi will now be the primary first baseman for the Angels. At such a low price, he starts off in a great matchup against Yovani Gallardo. In a surprise to no one, Gallardo has gotten off to a rough start for the Orioles, allowing six home runs, five of them to lefties. Choi is a switch hitter that was hitting .329 with four home runs in Triple-A this season. He’s in a good spot at a low price today.
Evan Longoria (3B) – TBR vs. BOS – $3,500 Longoria feels like he’s really underpriced today, even with his matchup with Rick Porcello on deck. Porcello has mostly had his troubles with righties on the road, not at Fenway Park this season. Porcello owns a .395 wOBA against righties on the road compared to his .298 wOBA at home. However, I like what Longoria has done at Fenway Park in his career, batting .282 with 15 home runs and a .515 SLG in 70 games. Against righties on the road, Longoria own a .372 wOBA with a .554 SLG.
Pedro Alvarez (1B) – BAL vs. LAA – $3,900 – Alverez is starting to get on a hot streak, which instantly makes him someone to consider on a daily basis. Averaging 9.4 FPPG over his last 10 games, Alverez is 11-38 in that span with a double, three home runs and nine RBIs. Facing Nice Tropeano today, who is allowing a .352 wOBA to lefties this season with four of his 10 home runs allowed, makes Alverez a nice sneaky play at first.
Christian Yelich (OF) – MIA vs. CIN – $3,900 – Yelich isn’t the greatest in L/L matchups, but Lamb has been exceptionally bad against lefties on the road this season. Going into this start, Lamb owns a .428 wOBA against lefties with a .524 SLG. Overall, Yelich owns a .326 wOBA with a low SLG of .377. While the numbers for Yelich aren’t overly impressive, grabbing him at $3,900 is worth a shot.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above