We have nine games being played this afternoon as we are now knee deep in our 4th of July Celebrations. Take a quick minute to go over my favorite targets for today! As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Jon Lester – CHC vs. NYM – $12,800* – Lester has to be considered one of the most consistent pitchers of the season as we head into the All-Star break. Coming into this start, Lester owns a 2.03 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.7. He takes on a Mets team that has struggled against left-handed pitching all season, as they own a .301 wOBA with a .306 OBP and a .377 SLG. The 25.8 K% is the highest in the league, which makes this a sensational start for Lester. We’ve seen Lester reach double-digit strikeouts three times this season, most recently in the month of May against the Dodgers. Lester checks in as the second highest priced pitcher for this afternoon and should be one of the highest scoring.
Jose Quintana – CHW vs. HOU – $9,200 – After a bit of a rough month of June, Quntana looks to right the ship here in July. Quintana posted his worst numbers by far in June, owning a 5.51 ERA with a .347 wOBA. He gets a great matchup this afternoon against the Astros, who are not good against lefties this season. The Astros own a .312 wOBA with a .324 OBP and a .394 SLG. Their K% is right up their with the Mets, as they rank second in the league at 24.7%. Quintana has been striking out batters at a good clip, owning an 8.2 K/9 on the season. Quintana has impressively reach double-digit strikeouts twice this season against tough teams to do so, the Blue Jays and Royals. At what feels like a discounted $9,200, Quintana should be a fine play today.
Mike Trout (OF) – LAA vs. BOS – $5,400 – Trout had a great matchup last night against Clay Buchholz and today will be no different against Sean O’ Sullivan. Making his fourth start of the season for the Red Sox, O’Sullivan has been failing to impress, owning a .431 wOBA against righties in his short stint up in the majors. Against righties this season, Trout owns a .435 wOBA with a .611 SLG. Fun fact: Trout has yet to hit a home run at Fenway Park with 68 at-bats to his name. Today would be a good day to change that.
Aledmys Diaz (SS)- STL vs MIL – $5,000 – Diaz has been someone I’ve been going to a lot this season when I need to fill my shortstop position. Averaging 8.5 FPPG, Diaz takes on Chase Anderson this afternoon. Anderson has been horrific against right-handed batters this season, owning a .417 wOBA with a .633 SLG and 10 of his 16 home runs allowed. Diaz owns a cool .395 wOBA with a .558 SLG and for whatever reason, constantly goes over looked on a daily basis.
Ryan Braun (OF) – MIL vs. STL – $4,200 – Braun feels really cheap today and I’m really not sure why. He takes on Michael Wacha, who’s been decent on the mound. Coming into this start, Wacha owns a .308 wOBA against righties with only three of his seven home runs allowed. Normally I might not go crazy with exposure against him, but only $4,200 for Braun is hard to pass up. On the road against righties, Bruan owns a .393 wOBA with a .545 SLG and four of his 13 total home runs.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS vs. LAA – $5,300 – Taking David Ortiz at Fenway Park has been a no brainer this season. Ortiz is averaging 11.4 FPPG at Fenway, hitting .380 with a .486 OBP and a .606 SLG. He faces Matt Shoemaker, who has been fantastic as of late. However, his road numbers aren’t nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Shoemaker owns a .347 wOBA on the road with a .513 SLG with eight of his 11 total home runs allowed.
*Odubel Herrera (OF) – PHI vs. KCR – $4,800 * – Herrera is essentially the only shining part of this Phillies lineup. Coming into today, he owns a .302 average with nine home runs, 30 RBIs and averaging 8.2 FPPG. The RBI opportunities are few and far between, but Herrera can get it done on his own quite honestly. He faces off against Yordano Ventura, who is his own worst enemy on the mound. Ventura is allowing a .343 wOBA to lefties with a .413 SLG and six of his 11 home runs allowed.
Wilson Ramos (CATCH) – WAS vs. CIN – $4,400 – Ramos has been hitting left-handed pitching this season and gets a very tasty matchup against John Lamb. Lamb hasn’t had much success against anyone this season and righties give him the most trouble. Owning a .354 wOBA with a .482 SLG with eight of his nine home runs allowed will do that to you. Ramos comes into this game with a .316 wOBA against lefties with a .464 SLG and three of his 12 home runs. I expect Lamb to get knocked around in this one, so Ramos should be part of barrage.
C.J. Cron (1B) – LAA vs. BOS – $3,900 – I think it’s safe to say that Cron has been enjoying this series at Fenway Park, huh? In the first two games of the series, Cron is 8-11 with three home runs, nine RBIs, and six runs scored for a combined 77 points. Not too shabby for a guy under $4,000, right? With his impending matchup against Sean O’Sullivan, you have to believe that Cron is in line for another solid game.
Corey Dickerson (OF) – TBR vs. DET – $3,700 I REALLY don’t like taking Dickerson when he’s playing at Tropicana Field; we haven’t seen very good results when we do so. At home this season, Dickerson owns a .182 average with a .235 OBP (yikes) and a .318 SLG. So what would cause me to take him in this spot? Mike Pelfrey is why. Pelfrey owns a .392 wOBA against lefties that jumps up to .408 on the road. Pelfrey has allowed six of his 13 home runs to lefties with a .519 SLG. If Dickerson can make something happen at home, you have to believe that today could be that game.
Nomar Mazara (OF) – TEX vs. MIN – $3,600 – Mazara is another guy that continues to hover around the $3,500 mark on a daily basis and never seems to see a huge bump up in his salary. Believe me, no complaints on this end, as he matches up nicely against Kyle Gibson this afternoon. Gibson can’t seem to get it right against lefties this season, owning a .362 wOBA with a .500 SLG and three of his five home runs allowed. Mazara has been excelling at this spot, owning a .360 wOBA against righties with a .492 SLG.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS) – TOR vs. CLE – $3,000 – This is a complete punt play at the shortstop position. I can’t really point to the matchup, as it doesn’t add up well for Tulo. However, he’s been hitting extremely well as of late and at $3,000, that’s the most I can ask for. Over his last 10 games, Tulo is averaging 10.2 FPPG hitting .330 with a .625 SLG. Tulo has gone 12-40 with four home runs, eight RBIs and five runs scored.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.