With six games being played this afternoon, we have plenty of targets to go after. Let’s get you ready for this slate, and as always you can get find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Chris Sale – CHW vs. DET – $12,100 – Sale has faced the Tigers three times already this season, and he’s been good, not great, against them. In those three matchups, Sale pitched a total of 21.1 innings allowing nine runs on 21 hits with a 19:4 K:BB ratio. Amongst teams that’s he’s faced at least twice (eight teams), Sale has the second lowest K/9 against the Tigers at 8. The lack of strikeouts is a bit of a deterrent at his price tag, but on a shorter slate, he’s still a very viable option. As a team, the Tigers aren’t great against left-handed pitching, owning a .326 wOBA with a .433 SLG, with both categories ranked 15th and 17th in the league. The ceiling is always sky high with Sale, and he’s coming off two dominant starts against the Mariners and Oakland where he averaged 37.8 FPPG.
Justin Verlander – DET vs. CHW – $10,800 – This game has a projected total of 7.5 runs with Verlander the slight favorite over Sale. After another dominant performance his last time out against the Angels, his $10,800 salary feels awfully friendly today. Verlander has averaged 20 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games with at least five strikeouts in each game. The White Sox are brutal on the road this season, owning a .308 wOBA with a .395 SLG and a 20.5 K%. Verlander has been his best at home this season, and I expect nothing less than that today.
Tyler Anderson – COL vs. LAD – $7,100 – Last night’s game got postponed, so Anderson is scheduled to take the ball again this afternoon. First and foremost, I still love this matchup. The Dodgers are brutal against lefties, and the lineup they made last night was downright terrible. On the season, the Dodgers own a .287 wOBA against lefties with a .344 SLG and a 20.1 K%. Even at Coors Field you have to like those numbers. The bad news is that Anderson has seen a price jump of $1,600 since last night. Even though $7,100 is still a reasonable price for Anderson, it’s at the top end of what I realistically want to spend for a pitcher at Coors Field. For as good as Anderson has been at home, averaging 16.4 FPPG in 10 starts with a .315 wOBA and a .422 SLG, my enthusiasm for this matchup has faded a bit. I still think he’s a fine play today, but returning value on a $5,500 salary compared to a $7,100 salary is a big difference.
Nolan Arenado (3B) – COL vs. LAD – $5,300 – I wasn’t really jumping at the chance to get some Rockies in my lineup last night with their impending matchup against Rich Hill. Instead, Ross Stripling will take the hill this afternoon, and that’s a game changer for the Rockies’ hitters. Arenado owns a .416 wOBA against righties at home with a .651 SLG with 14 of his 35 home runs.
Mookie Betts (OF) – BOS vs TBR – $5,000 – Drew Smyly was able to shut down this Red Sox offense once already this season, but I’m wondering if he can do it again. Betts batting in the middle of the order has increased his overall production, and he’s averaging 10 FPPG over his last 10 games. At home against a left-handed pitcher, Betts owns a .350 wOBA with a .541 SLG.
Evan Longoria (3B) – TBR vs. BOS – $4,100 – It’s hard to pinpoint which Steven Wright will show up to the ballpark today. Weather reports call for the temperature to be around 85-86 today, and Wright pitches much worse when the weather is 80 degrees or higher. With that being the case, I like Longoria and his success against righties. Longoria owns a .396 wOBA on the road against a RHP with a .571 SLG with 13 of his 31 home runs. I also have a funny feeling he’s going to be low owned this afternoon as well.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B) – ARZ vs. SFG – $5,000 – I’m interested in this spot for Goldschmidt, as Matt Moore is coming off a complete game one-hitter that saw him throw 133 pitches. No matter how you slice it, Goldy can hit left-handed pitching, owning a .448 wOBA with a .592 SLG. The park shift is not in his favor, but hopefully he can pounce on a tired Moore.
David Dahl (OF) – COL vs. LAD – $5,000 – I miss the days when Dahl was only $3,000 playing at Coors Field. Nonetheless, he’s been a force at the plate since his call up and should be in a good spot here today. Against righties at home, Dahl owns a .432 wOBA and a .628 SLG.
Buster Posey – (CATCH) – SFG vs. ARZ – $4,000 What a great day, Shelby Miller is being called back up to the majors to make a start against the Giants. Although I wouldn’t normally target a Giants stack with how they have been hitting lately, this is one I certainly can’t pass over. Posey comes into play with his .339 wOBA against RHP at home. Miller has truly been a train wreck on the mound this season, allowing a .335 wOBA to righties with five of his 13 home runs given up.
J.D. Martinez (OF) – DET vs. CHW – $3,900 – I’m not all about going after hitters facing Chris Sale, but Martinez has been insanely good against lefties at home this season. Coming into this game, Martinez owns a .433 wOBA with a .660 SLG in those situations. For what it’s worth, Martinez has hit three home runs off of Sale in 28 at-bats, but hasn’t done much more besides that, hitting a respectable .286 against him.
Brandon Belt (1B) – SFG vs. ARZ – $3,700 – Again, trying to take advantage of how poorly Shelby Miller has been pitching. If you thought he was bad against right-handed batters, you haven’t even seen what happens when a lefty comes to the plate. They own a .426 wOBA with a .588 SLG in Miller’s short time up with the big club this season. Belt provides good value at $3,700 today.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – TEX vs. SEA – $3,000 – Beltran hasn’t exactly been the spark that the Rangers were hoping for when they acquired him at the trade deadline, but I think he’s in an interesting spot against Felix Hernandez today. Hernandez has struggled against lefties on the road this season, owning a .348 wOBA. It might be a bit of a stretch, but at just $3,000 and Beltran owning a decent .329 wOBA against righties, I’m willing to take a shot.
Matt Duffy (3B/SS) – TBR vs. BOS – $2,900 – This is another punt play at shortstop that I feel like could pay off if Wright comes out of the gate struggling. Since being traded to the Rays, Duffy is batting .270, although he’s mostly been poking singles. What I do like is that he’s cheap, won’t need to do much to return value and is hitting at Fenway Park. While he isn’t the flashiest name on this slate, he’s a worthy punt play that could grab a couple hits off of Wright or the imploding Boston bullpen.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.