Tonight, for the first time in the history of daily fantasy sports, someone is going to turn $3 into $100,000. That’s…a large potential ROI.
No matter your bankroll, tonight represents an opportunity to multi-entry into a large GPP. Even if you plan to play just $30, that’s still 10 possible lineups, if you so choose, to place into the $300K Swing for the Fences.
When playing multiple lineups, it’s crucial that you monitor your player exposure. I’ve already been building lineups and, just due to the process of adding and removing guys to find the right balance, I forget how much exposure I have to each guy; I might think I have more of Player X than I do. Further, if you place some of your lineups into leagues with a higher buy-in, then you actually have much more monetary exposure to the players in those lineups.
When I’m creating multiple lineups, I track my player usage (and how much money is on each) in Excel. I don’t really think Excel is necessary for everyone—you can do it with pen and paper, too—but the idea is that you should be monitoring how much exposure you have to specific guys. If Tyson Ross is your top pitcher by a mile tonight, then you should have more money on Ross than anyone else, for example.
This is just something to keep in mind as you build multiple lineups. The number of lineups actually doesn’t matter—just how much money you’re playing and where you have that money allocated.
Pittsburgh Pirates (vs Mike Pelfrey)
You’ll rarely run into high ownership rostering a Pittsburgh stack, but the Pirates are projected better than Toronto, Baltimore, and all but a couple teams tonight. I love their lefty bats against the right-handed Pelfrey, and PNC Park is one of the most underrated in baseball for batters.
Houston Astros (vs Jesse Hahn)
I warned you in the beginning of the year to not listen to anything I say about the Astros. Seriously, stop reading; none of this will be useful at all. I know nothing.
Now, let’s get to business: the Astros rock again. They rock pretty much every day because they’re absolutely horrible at hitting the ball, so they almost always lose you money, but when they do hit it, they can hit it far. They’re an all-or-nothing offense, and that’s how I like to live my life. Continually disappointed.
Top umpire for batters. Projected well by Vegas with an opening line of 4.5 implied runs. Getting 80 percent of public betting. The signs are there guys. Five hits, five home runs.
2B/3B Luis Valbuena, Houston (vs Jesse Hahn) – $3600
Valbuena ownership won’t be super-low because he hits righties well and most people know that (.352 wOBA and .229 ISO splits past 12 months), but I’ve never really seen his ownership become prohibitive. I like Valbuena for all the reasons I like Houston—he’s my favorite player in the stack—and I love that he has multi-position eligibility.
OF Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay (vs Williams Perez) – $3900
I actually secretly kind of like Tampa Bay tonight. Kiermaier is my highest-rated player on that team. He hits righties a lot better than lefties and has a number of secondary advantages tonight: good weather for batters, a top hitter’s ump, and so on. This is also a player you won’t need to worry about running into high ownership.
OF Mike Trout, LA Angels (vs Drew Hutchison) – $5700
If you’re paying up for an outfielder in tournaments, Trout is an interesting choice because he costs the same price as Bryce Harper. I think it’s safe to say Harper—facing a weak right-hander—is going to have higher ownership. I don’t think Trout will be unpopular by any means, but I definitely think the usage will be suppressed a bit just due to the pricing.
P Shane Greene, Detroit (vs Milwaukee) – $6000
I think Tyson Ross and Carlos Martinez are the two top pitcher plays. They’re going to have higher ownership than Greene, who I think is in a better spot than what most will probably believe. The Brewers crushed Anibal Sanchez last night, but they still generally have some problems with right-handers. Greene is cheap, in a pitcher’s park, is a huge favorite to win, and has an umpire behind home plate in Brian Gorman who has added 3.1 points above expectation to pitchers’ DraftKings scores.