Yesterday was the day of the Sox, as both the White Sox and the Red Sox put up 10 runs or more. We also saw the Cardinals put up a lot more than the Diamondbacks and Coors Field producing 13 total runs. Today we should see a similar run total from Coors, which will mean a lot of popularity for the Rockies and Pirates. I am going to try and look elsewhere for one of the expensive stacks today, as the Rockies just haven’t produced consistently enough for me. Let’s take a look at the 14 game slate we have this evening.
Projected Team Total: 5.4 Runs
The Pirates have really taken a liking to Coors, as most teams do. They face Jon Gray tonight who was mediocre in his first start, but did post 9 strikeouts. He had a 9.00 ERA in 5 innings and a .949 OPS against RHBs last season. The Pirates have a team handedness wOBA of .316. Both Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco are batting over .500 lifetime against Gray. I also like Starling Marte, John Jaso, Jody Mercer and David Freese who all boast positive wOBA matchups.
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Projected Team Total: 5 Runs
Wrigley Field has a park factor this year of .773, but this hasn’t stopped the Cubs. They have a handedness wOBA of .316 and a team ISO of .160 tonight. Jungmann has been terrible this season and has an 8.47 ERA. Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler all have positive handedness wOBA tonight, and I also like Dexter Fowler. The Cubs have crushed Jungmann in the past and should do so again tonight.
Projected Team Total: 5 Runs
The Red Sox destroyed the Braves last night and should do more of the same this evening. Bud Norris has a 6.75 ERA in 21 innings tonight. He also has a 1.308 OPS against LHBs on the season. David Ortiz will cost you, but has a handedness wOBA of .417. The value in this game comes from guys like Travis Shaw (.344 wOBA), Hanley Ramirez (.303 wOBA) and Jackie Bradley (.325 wOBA). Bradley has also produced 14 DKFP in the last two games. I think this will be a popular stack for the big names, but could be a contrarian option, stacking 3-7 in their order.
Projected Team Total: 4.3 Runs
Target Field has been mainly neutral this season and hasn’t really benefited hitter or pitcher. The projected total in this game is 8.5 with the Indians favored at -115. Berrios will get his first major league start tonight, and I love targeting guys on their first start. He is 2-0 in the minors, but this is a different ball game. Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor and Yan Gomes should have a field day.
Projected Team Total: 4.5 runs
The Rogers Centre has also been very good to hitters this season and is ranked 4th in park factors. Quintana has been really good to start this year and has a 1.82 ERA in 24 innings. The Blue Jays have had some success against him in the past with Josh Donaldson boasting a .333 BA. I like the Blue Jays team handedness wOBA of .341, and I feel like guys will stay away due to Quintana starting this season well. Both Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista are in play, but I also like Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin (if he plays).
Projected Team Total: 4.4 Runs
I have a feeling people will be off of the Diamondbacks tonight after they put up 2 runs yesterday. However, Wainwright is a different pitcher and a pretty bad one at that. He hasn’t won a game yet this season and has a 7.25 ERA. The Diamondbacks have a .319 team handedness wOBA. Paul Goldschmidt has a 1.20 OPS at home, and most of the Diamondbacks are killing the ball at Chase Field. Chase Field has a 1.883 park factor and is extremely favorable for hitters. I like Jake Lamb, Jean Segura, Welington Castillo, and Yasmany Tomas to get in the mix tonight.