It is Boston Marathon Day America! Good luck to all of the runners, but don’t overlook the baseball being played in Boston as well (day game). We have a 7 game slate tonight, which is a little refreshing after Sunday’s early slate. Let’s see if we can get find the 9 run gem, like the Pittsburgh Pirates put up yesterday. Let’s hop right into the games.
Projected Team Total: 4.4 Runs
The Rockies won’t have the luxury of playing in Coors tonight, but they are still projected to score a few runs. The projected total in this one is at 9 with the Reds favored at -120. Even though the Reds are favored, the Rockies have a team handedness wOBA of .335 and a team ISO of .193. Dan Straily will be getting his first start after relieving most of this season. He has a .576 OPS against RHB and a .350 OPS against LHB in relief. The Rockies should tee off on him, and lefties like Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra boast very positive wOBA matchups. I also like Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado to finish off the stack.
Projected Team Total: 4.3 Runs
US Cellular has been good to the White Sox, but it has also been good to all hitters so far this season. US Cellular Park has a runs rating of 1.698 so far and is a very favorable place for batters. The projected total is at 8.5 runs and the White Sox are favored at -120. Santiago has a .349 ERA and .687 OPS this season. The righties for the Sox will love facing Santiago as he has a .734 OPS against RHB. I will have plenty of Austin Jackson, Jimmy Rollins, Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera.
Projected Team Total: 4.6 Runs
We already looked at their opponent as a stack, but I can’t turn away from Reds at home either. This game has the highest projected total on the evening and the Reds are favored to win. Lyles just isn’t that good and has put up negative DKFP in his last two outings. How can you trust a guy with an 11.25 ERA? He has a 1.064 OPS against LHB, which Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will love. I also like Zack Cozart and Eugenio Suarez even though both batters boast a negative handedness wOBA. Somebody has to score for the Reds, I like the top of the order to do that.
Projected Team Total: 4.4 Runs
Back to US Cellular Park and its excellent rating for hitters this season. The Angels have a team handedness wOBA of .308 and a team ISO of .152. We could consider this stack as contrarian as well, due to Rodon’s past history with the Angels. He has a 1.20 ERA against the Angels in two starts. With that said, Rodon is a lefty and the Angels are righty heavy at the top of the order. I look for guys like Yunel Escobar, Craig Gentry, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Geovany Soto (if he plays) to have a field day.
Projected Team Total: 4.4
Target Field hasn’t been a great field for hitters this season and really has played sort of neutral. I think people will be off of this matchup due to how well Anderson has pitched during the early part of the season. In 11 innings Anderson has an ERA of 0.0, that seems decent enough for me. However, the projected total in this game is at 8.5, and the Twins are favored at -120. Most of the Twins batters boast a positive handedness wOBA and won’t cost you much at all tonight. I like a 1-4 stack of Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer and Miguel Sano tonight. This stack should be about as contrarian as it comes with most staying away from Anderson.
Projected Team Total: 4 Runs
It really is hard for me to label this a contrarian stack tonight, but I feel like it could go overlooked. The Cubs are usually pretty consistent and Leake hasn’t really been great. Leake has a 6.97 ERA and an .883 OPS against LHP, which the Cubs have quite a few of. The Cubs have a team handedness wOBA of .320. I love a lot of guys from the Cubs tonight, but Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and Anthony Rizzo make the top of my list. Don’t overlook a sneaky Cubs stack on the evening.