Last night the Astros gave us a nice 8 run total, but it was the Marlins (not the Mets) that blew away the night with a 10 run total. Let’s examine the 10 game slate tonight and see if we can take advantage of any teams playing in Coors Field… (we can!)
Projected Team Total: 5.3 Runs
The projected total in this one is listed at 11 runs with SF favored at -125. Samardzija had an OPS of .689 against RHB and a .839 against LHB in 2015. The Rockies have some lefties at the top of the lineup that should be able to tee off on Samardzija tonight. Most of the top 5 in the lineup have a positive handedness wOBA and Trevor Story carries a .657 handedness wOBA into this game (please let it continue). I love a Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado stack tonight (if you decide to go cheap with pitching).
Projected Team Total: 5.8 Runs
I just can’t stay away from Coors tonight, especially with the Giants favored in this 11 run shootout. In his first start this season after injury, Chatwood gave up 7 hits. Without any 2015 stats, his early year OPS numbers are .787 against RHB and .182 against lefties. Most of the Giants have found success against Chatwood in the past, and the lefties at the top of the lineup should go off. I will have to have exposure to Denard Span, Joe Panik and Hunter Pence tonight.
Projected Team Total: 4.33 Runs
The Nationals put up 6 runs yesterday and have the potential to do that again today. Chacin will get his first start after playing in the minors last season. He did have an OPS of .497 against RHB and .982 against LHB before making that transition. The Nationals have a team handedness wOBA of .310 and should knock Chacin around tonight. I am taking the usual suspects from this one; Michael Taylor, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy.
Projected Team Total: 4.28 Runs
Citizen’s Bank Park has a .998 run factor and usually pretty neutral for Hitters and Pitchers. The projected total in this game is 8.5, with the Phillies slightly favored at -105. Erlin has come on in relief this season, but has yet to make a start. He does, however, have a lifetime ERA of .219 against the Phillies. I don’t like the team wOBA of .296 at all, but I am running with my gut on this one. I will have some Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera and Andres Blanco exposure tonight.
Projected Team Total: 4.91
The Red Sox come in at a great spot tonight and are projected to score the 3rd most runs on the evening. Mike Wright makes his first start tonight and well…just isn’t that good. Wright had an OPS of .855 against RHB and a .919 against LHB last season. The Red Sox boast a team wOBA of .320 and David Ortiz has a .411 handedness wOBA. I will be rolling 1-4 in Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, and David Ortiz tonight.
Projected Team Total: 4.1 Runs
I like the Yankees shot at a win tonight with Tanaka on the mound. The projected total in this game is 4.5 with the Blue Jays favored at -115. Sanchez can strike people out (8 in his first start), but gets a good dose of lefties tonight. Sanchez had an .878 OPS against LHP last season. The Yankees have a team handedness wOBA of .324 and should be an under-the-radar play. I like Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira, and Brian McCann tonight.