The World Series will play Game 4 Saturday evening. The Nationals continue to lead the series 2-1 despite dropping Game 3 by a score of 4-1 on Friday night. Tonight’s pitching matchup consists of Jose Urquidy for the Astros and Patrick Corbin for the Nationals. Let’s get into all the info for this game!
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.
FIVE BETTING TRENDS— The Nationals have won each of their last 13 games after playing the previous day.
— The “Inning 1 Under 0.5 runs” market has hit in each of the Astros’ last four road games against NL East opponents.
— The Nationals have led after three innings in each of their last four Saturday games.
— Games at Nationals Park average a total of 10.2 runs
— The average winning margin at Nationals Park is 3.5 runs.
Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Houston AstrosIn a series that boasts some strong pitching matchups, this is not one of them. Urquidy ($7,800) will be making his eighth start this year. During the regular season as a starter, Urquidy tossed 34 innings, allowing a .290 wOBA, a 3.61 xFIP and a K% of 26. He has yet to pitch in this series and during the playoffs has only thrown 4 1/3 innings, allowing one run on six hits and striking out eight. The biggest knock against him has been his numbers against righties, where he has a .344 wOBA and a 4.52 xFIP. In a very right-handed heavy lineup, that can pose a problem. He hasn’t pitched more than 2 2/3 innings during the playoffs, so I can’t imagine he goes deep into this game. With that in mind, I think he’s best left ignored in this spot.
If you’re looking to get some salary relief from a reliever, Ryan Pressly ($3,600) wasn’t used in Game 3 so one would imagine he would be in the mix. Of course, Roberto Osuna ($4,000) would be on to close this game out if needed. He’s only allowed three runs on five hits and nine strikeouts through 8 1/3 innings in the postseason. He’s a very interesting Captain’s pick ($6,000) that if he saved the game, would really differentiate your lineup in that spot.
The Astros’ offense is a whole different story. Facing the lefty Corbin ($10,400) could be the matchup they need to get back into this series. In this section, we’ll look at what could go against Corbin while spinning a positive light on him in the next. Being a lefty against the Astros hasn’t exactly gone well this season, as during the regular season they combined for a .363 wOBA (third), .231 ISO (first) and a 131 wRC+ (first). Jose Altuve ($9,400) remains the Astros’ hottest hitter and has hit lefties extremely well during the season with a .465 wOBA, .358 ISO and a 200 WRC+ against them on the road. He’s a very viable Captain’s pick ($14,100) if you think the Astros win this game. George Springer ($9,800) has also been heating up this series, going 4-for-12 with a home run and two RBI. His spot in the leadoff position makes him Captain worthy ($14,700) as well. One bat I wouldn’t ignore is Michael Brantley ($6,800). The L/L matchup isn’t ideal and his numbers against lefties are poor, sporting just a .322 wOBA and a .104 ISO. If you’re in the belief the Astros win this game and Corbin is knocked out early, he would be a very good bat to have at low ownership against a poor Nationals bullpen. Brantley is 5-for-12 in this series while averaging 10 DKFP.
Washington NationalsThe Nationals have the benefit of being ahead in this series and with home-field advantage in this game. While I talked about Corbin in a not-so-great light earlier, we do have some aspects to like as well. He’s been lights out at home this season, posting a .249 wOBA, a 3.17 xFIP and only eight of the 24 home runs he allowed during the regular season. The Astros are a very tough team to strikeout, so it’s hard to imagine him racking up many but he certainly has the capability with a 28.5 K%. I wouldn’t use him as a Captain, but I think he’s in play despite how good the Astros are against lefties. I don’t imagine he’s going deep as he’s been mainly used as a reliever thus far, but he has three days rest under his belt. It’s a risky play and not one I think we need to feel obligated to play.
The Nationals’ bullpen hasn’t seen the big implosion during the playoffs, but I’m still not convinced they’re as good as they’ve been. Sean Doolittle ($5,700), Daniel Hudson ($6,300) and Tanner Rainey ($5,400) are all rested for this game and I wouldn’t be shocked if all three made it into action. If I were to rank them, I’d go Rainey, Doolittle, Hudson. Again, while the Astros don’t strike out a ton, Rainey has the best strikeout potential of the three. I wouldn’t be looking to Captain any of these guys because if you’re going to do so with a reliever, Osuna is the one.
The Nationals’ offense is coming off a tough game where they went 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position. However, with the struggles Urquidy has against righties, those fortunes could change tonight. There really isn’t anyone I’m actively looking to fade in terms of their hitters but if I were to focus on a couple of guys, Trea Turner ($10,000), Anthony Rendon ($11,000) and Juan Soto ($10,800) are the obvious choices. You can easily fit in two or all of these bats by putting in a reliever because I don’t feel as if I NEED to roster a starting pitcher in this game. If you’re looking for a potentially low-owned bat, Victor Robles ($8,200) fits the mold. He’s a base-stealing threat and did so last night on his way to a 17 DKFP night. Hitting lower in the order, he’ll likely go overlooked, which would work out perfectly if he can swipe another one. During the regular season, Robles did so 29 times.
THE OUTCOMEWhen all is said and done, I think the Astros tie this series at 2-2, which will lead to this series going the full seven. While Corbin is the “starter” in this game, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this turn into a bullpen game for the Nationals. While they’ve been much better than expected, you can only play with fire so much before you get burned. I think this could be the game where that Nationals’ bullpen get burned and the Astros turn this into a best of three series.
Final Score: Astros 6, Nationals 4
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