Tuesday’s MLB Showdown slates feature a choice between two games; the Colorado Rockies at the Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET) and the Houston Astros at the Seattle Mariners (10:10 p.m. ET). This article will focus on Astros-Mariners.
Houston is banged up and does not have its normal lineup punch, as George Springer (hamstring), Carlos Correa (rib) and Jose Altuve (hamstring) all are out.
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.
FIVE BETTING TRENDS— The Astros have won each of their past 10 games against American League West opponents.
— Each of the Astros’ last six night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
— The average winning margin at T-Mobile Park is 4.5 runs.
— The Mariners win 37.5% of their games at T-Mobile Park.
— Games at T-Mobile Park average a total of 11.1 runs.
Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Houston AstrosWade Miley ($10,400) will take the mound for the Astros. Miley was once a punching bag that was more fantasy relevant for his ability to be a strong target for hitting stacks rather than as a useful pitching play, but the development of a sharp cutter has transformed Miley into a very good pitcher. Miley’s cutter is his primary pitch, throwing it 50% of the time, and the sharp movement makes the pitch difficult to barrel up and hit well. For this reason, Miley has outperformed his 4.39 FIP, which is about in line with the league-average FIP of 4.40. Miley has a 3.25 ERA, over a full run better than his FIP, and has held batters to an expected wOBA of just .286 based on the exit velocities and angles of their batted balls, better than the league average of .321.
Miley’s one fantasy flaw is a lack of bat-missing, with just a 19% strikeout rate on the season, below the league average of 23%. However, Miley has missed more bats lately, striking out 26.5% of the 117 batters he has faced over his past five starts. Strikeout rate stabilizes quickly and is less prone to small sample size noise than some other statistics, which could be relevant going forward. Miley faces a Mariners team that has been strikeout-prone vs. lefties, striking out in 26% of their plate appearances vs. LHP, seventh highest. Their 25.5% strikeout rate against all pitchers is fourth highest, which could help Miley miss more bats on Tuesday.
Alex Bregman ($10,600) is the top option in a Houston lineup that is down three of their best players in Springer, Altuve and Correa. Other options include leadoff hitter Derek Fisher ($8,800), who has added fantasy appeal given his strong lineup slot. Fisher hit leadoff yesterday, followed by Bregman, Josh Reddick ($6,600), Yuli Gurriel ($6,000), Robinson Chirinos ($7,200), Tyler White ($4,600), Jake Marisnick ($9,400), Jack Mayfield ($4,400) and Myles Straw ($7,400). For up-to-the-minute news and analysis on the Astros’ starting lineup, download the DK Live app.
Seattle MarinersSeattle’s best hitter this season has been Daniel Vogelbach ($8,600), who has produced a .385 wOBA on the back of big-time power, hitting 15 home runs in just 201 plate appearances. Vogelbach’s propensity to launch long ding-dong-Johnsons — a Pedro Martinez term for a far home run — has given him an isolated power of .313, ninth best among qualified hitters. Vogelbach’s outcomes are also supported by strong contact quality, producing an expected wOBA of .372 based on the exit velocities and angles of his batted balls. However, Vogelbach, a left-handed batter, hasn’t hit left-handed pitching well at all and is either benched or moved down in the order against lefties, making him an unappealing play against the left-handed Miley, who has been tough on LHB.
Seattle’s more appealing fantasy hitters will come from the right-side, as Miley has been significantly more effective against lefties, holding them to an expected wOBA of just .265 based on their contact quality, with righties at .292. Miley has also struck out a high percentage of LHB (27%) but a low percentage of RHB (17%), making it more likely for righties to put the ball in play.
RHB Edwin Encarnacion ($7,600) has hit left-handed pitching the best this season by contact quality, producing an expected wOBA of .426 vs. LHP. His expected wOBA of .378 on the season leads all Mariners batters. Encarnacion’s power-hitting vs. LHP has been strong with a .286 isolated power, and his usual lineup slot of third gives him a strong batting order position for fantasy production. Other options from the right-side include two-hole hitter Mitch Haniger ($8,000), Tim Beckham ($6,200), and Domingo Santana ($9,200), who hit cleanup the last time Seattle faced a LHP. Beckham (.255 ISO), Santana (.232 ISO) and Haniger (.226 ISO) all have plus power hitting numbers vs. left-handed pitching this season. Haniger’s contact quality has also been elite vs. lefties with an expected wOBA of .412.
Download the DK Live app for up-to-the-minute news on the Mariners’ starting pitcher on Tuesday.
THE OUTCOMEDespite being down three of their best hitters, the Astros are in line to have the strong edge in the pitching matchup, which gives them a big leg up in the run differential department. If Jon Niese starts, Houston’s batters will be well-positioned to score runs off a pitcher who has struggled to get Triple-A hitters out and wasn’t effective the last time he pitched in the big leagues three years ago.
Editor’s Note: The Mariners will start RHP Andrew Moore in tonight’s game.
Final score: Astros 6, Mariners 3
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