Wednesday looks more like a Tuesday slate, as 12 games will be taking place starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. I’m almost positive this is the 19th day in a row where we haven’t had to watch out for any weather (that number could be off), but we continue to be #blessed with clear nights. Let’s get into all the information and as always, you can reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jacob deGrom, $12,000, NYM (-435) vs. MIA (+360) — deGrom is going to do his part to keep the Mets’ season alive, as they, essentially, need to avoid a loss or a Brewers win to stay in contention. So basically, they’re out.
Anyways, deGrom is still a great option in terms of DFS at least! This will be his sixth start against the Marlins, a team he owns a 3.15 xFIP and a 31 K% against through 31 innings pitched. He hasn’t allowed a run in two straight starts and has gone seven innings in seven straight starts. He’s the most expensive option on this slate but as you’d expect, that shouldn’t trouble you from taking him in such a good matchup. Don’t forget, this will be your final chance to use deGrom before the season ends!
Highest TotalBOS (-152) at TEX (+135) 12 runs — Another big run total for these two teams after they produced 22 runs last night, eight of which came in the first inning! The Red Sox are favored once again in this meaningless game, sporting a 6.5 run total, which is tied with the Indians as the highest on the slate. Kolby Allard ($7,400) is the unlucky recipient to take the mound for the Rangers and brings with him some terrible numbers at Globe Life Park. Granted, he’s thrown only 14 2/3 innings, but he already has posted a .365 wOBA and a 5.12 xFIP. Mookie Betts could be out of this lineup after being removed last night due to discomfort in his left foot, but I still would be on this total and the Red Sox as a stacking option.
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Mike Montgomery, .479, 4.16
Drew Smyly, .456, 6.33
Tim Melville, .388, 6.61
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Zack Greinke, .265, 3.57
Jacob deGrom, .268, 3.62
Frankie Montas, .287, 3.53
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Ross Detwiler, .422, 6.02
Dario Agrazal, .410, 5.93
Tim Melville, .379, 4.16
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jacob deGrom, .243, 2.76
Charlie Morton, .250, 3.54
Jeff Samardzija, .262, 4.56
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Corey Seager, LAD, $4200, 81.3%
Joc Pederson, LAD. $3900, 80%
Michael Hermosillo, LAA, $3400, 80%
Shin-Soo Choo, TEX, $4700, 75%
Brandon Lowe, TB, $4600, 75%
Pitcher to Build AroundShane Bieber, CLE vs. CWS, $11,800 — The White Sox simply supply so much strikeout upside it’s hard to stay away from them. Bieber has faced them three times already and has a 26.3 K% against them, as he’s struck out 21 through 19 2/3 innings. Through the month of September, the White Sox have one of the highest K% in the league at 26.1% to go with just a 7 BB%. Bieber, who has allowed two runs or less in three of his past five starts, should be able to handle this club once again.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForJose Altuve, HOU vs. SEA, $4,900 — I never consider $4,900 cheap, but for someone with the numbers against lefties like Altuve has, facing Yusei Kikuchi is too good to pass up. Altuve sports a .431 wOBA, .342 ISO and 42.5% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. As you’d expect, Kikuchi has struggled against this team and through three starts has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) on 20 hits, five of which were home runs through 14 innings.
Save Big by Drafting…Brian Dozier, WAS vs. PHI, $3,600 — I’d imagine Dozier will be in the starting lineup with the lefty Drew Smyly ($6,600) set to take the mound for the Phillies. Dozier, who has been struggling lately, still has an impressive .370 wOBA, .228 ISO and 26 wRC+ against lefties on the year. If you could pick almost any lefty to target against in a get-right spot, Smyly would be your guy (Kikuchi would be a close second). Smyly, despite having a “decent” month of September, still is allowing a 44% hard-hit rate through 18 1/3 innings.
Stack Em UpCLE vs. CWS (Ross Detwiler) — I’m sure Detwiler is all hyped to face his former team, but I hate to break it to you, there will be no “revenge” narrative taking place tonight. He already has made one appearance against the Indians and lasted 1 1/3 innings, allowing four runs on four hits and somehow walking six. In case you were wondering, that ended up being a -8 DKFP performance for Detwiler. As I mentioned yesterday, the Indians still are playing for something, as they still have a chance to win the AL Central, so counting on them to put their best lineup out (unlike other teams) is something we can count on.
Favorite Prop Bet
Kolby Allard UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-118)
Allard is going to get rocked in this start. So you think he’s going to strikeout five? Take the under, please.
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