Tuesday usually features every team in action but tonight brings a 13-game slate instead. We are loaded with expensive pitching options to choose from and only one game has a projected total of over 10 runs. Let’s dive into all the information on this slate and as always, you can reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Gerrit Cole, $13,00, HOU (-480) vs. SEA (+390) — Stop me if you’ve heard this one before but COLE IS A MASSIVE FAVORITE ON A SLATE.
Now that you’ve collected yourself, let’s talk about this start! This will be the fourth time he’s faced the Mariners this season and he’s downright dominant in those games. Through a combined 21 innings, he’s allowed four runs on 10 hits while striking out 36! Put those numbers together and Cole is boasting a .187 wOBA, 1.17 xFIP and 50.7 K% against the Mariners this season. Truly, these are just ridiculous numbers to have against a club, not to mention one that you’ve seen three times already. Obviously you’re very interested in playing Cole now but it’ll cost you a pretty penny, as he’s the most expensive pitching option by a wide $1,200 margin over Mike Clevinger ($11,800), who takes on the White Sox.
Highest TotalBOS (-200) vs. TEX (+175) 11 runs — For a big slate, I was surprised to see this was the only game projected in the double-digits. The Red Sox carry a 6.5 team total as they face off against Edinson Volquez ($6,900), who’ll open this game, followed by Ariel Jurado ($4,000) for the bulk of the innings. Volquez hasn’t pitched much this season but through 14 1/3 innings, he already has 11 walks under his belt and an overall 6.49 xFIP. Jurado has been abysmal at home, posting a .391 wOBA, 5.05 xFIP and eight of the 20 home runs he’s allowed. The Red Sox lineup has been looking all sorts of funny with the team eliminated out of playoff contention, but it’s still worth looking into the bigger priced bats here like Mookie Betts ($5,700), J.D. Martinez ($4,900) and Rafael Devers ($5,500).
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Mitch Keller, .406, 3.88
Mike Leake, .352, 4.49
Masahiro Tanaka, .347, 4.52
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Madison Bumgarner, .237, 3.51
Brendan McKay, .241, 5.16
Gerrit Cole, .250, 2.60
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jeff Hoffman, .454, 6.39
Mitch Keller, .390, 3.17
Dillon Peters, .387, 5.06
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Mike Clevinger, .223, 2.29
Max Scherzer, .224, 2.26
Gerrit Cole, .246, 2.52
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Jake Lamb, ARI, $3000, 100%
Corey Seager, LAD, $4500, 87.5%
Tyler Flowers, ATL, $3500, 83.3%
Michael Hermosillo, LAA, $3200, 80%
Ronald Acuna, ATL, $5300, 75%
Pitcher to Build AroundMike Clevinger, CLE vs. CWS, $11,800 — Sure, who wouldn’t want Cole in their lineup today? He’s just very expensive and makes it hard to fill out the rest of your roster. Clevinger gives you a bit of a discount from Cole, as he’s $1,200 less. His matchup is just as good against the White Sox, a team he’s faced twice already has 21 strikeouts through 14 innings. His numbers through 14 innings are a .170 wOBA, 3.43 xFIP and 40.4 K%. Not too shabby if you can’t pay up for Cole in this spot.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForCarlos Santana, CLE vs. CWS, $4,900 — If you haven’t noticed, there is a lot to like on the Indians side of this game. Not only is Clevinger in a great spot but the Tribe’s bats are as well. They’ll be facing Hector Santiago ($5,900), who I’m shocked is still in a major league rotation with an overall 5.96 xFIP and 39.6% hard-hit rate through 28 2/3 innings. Santana has been a force against lefties all season long and will enter this game with a .510 wOBA and .309 ISO against them on the road.
Editor’s Note: Carson Fulmer is now listed as the starter for the White Sox in place of Santiago.
Save Big by Drafting…Matt Carpenter, STL vs. ARI, $4,000 — I like this spot for Carpenter, who has been picking it up at the plate lately averaging 7 DKFP over his last five games. What makes this matchup enticing is facing Mike Leake ($7,200), who has a .352 wOBA, 4.49 xFIP and 18 of his 40 (!) home runs he’s allowed this season. There isn’t a ton of value I like overall tonight, so Carpenter at $4,000 will have to do.
Stack Em UpOAK vs. LAA (Dillon Peters) — If you’re a lefty facing the Athletics, you can’t be looking forward to your start. In these matchups, the A’s have a .337 wOBA, .216 ISO and 113 wRC+. Peters has yet to face the A’s this season but judging by how he’s been pitching, I can’t imagine this start turning out well for him. Through the month of September, Peters has a .448 wOBA, 7.44 xFIP and 42% hard-hit rate.
Favorite Prop Bet
Jeff Hoffman UNDER 4.5 strikeouts COL at SF (-118)This total feels a bit high for a pitcher who hasn’t struck out more than five batters in two of his last 10 starts. During the month of September, he’s only produced a 19.4 K%, which is currently one of his lowest outputs of the season. I’m more than happy to take the under here in a matchup I think they can knock him out early in.
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