Many of us are still recovering from the Super Bowl as we get our week started. That doesn’t mean there aren’t bets to be made, though.
This week, the PGA Tour heads out to Pebble Beach for the AT&T Pro-Am that’s famous for the celebrities who show up as well as the six-hour rounds that go along with them. There’s a three-course rotation between Pebble Beach GL, Monterey Peninsula CC and Spyglass Hill GC this week. Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill are both par 72s while Monterey Peninsula is a par 71. It’s worth noting all four courses feature four par 5s, despite Monterey only being a par 71.
We’ll leave the outright bets and top-fives to everyone else while we take a look at some of the more interesting offerings from the DK Sportsbook.
Note: All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Continental European Group
This is a pretty straightforward group to me. Whenever your picking from a group of eight, you’d like to find some obvious value in one of the underdogs, but I can’t quite get there with anyone else. Rafa Cabrera Bello (+110) is the favorite at the book as well as in my model. The model I have for this week blends career skill with recent form and has a little bit of Poa putting sprinkled in. RCB is in the 76th percentile of the model. If you are looking for some value and just want to fade the favorite, my next two highest-ranked golfers are Stephan Jaeger (+900) and Freddie Jacobson (+1600). With that being said, I don’t think this is the spot to get cute. I believe RCB is head and shoulders above the rest of this group.
Play: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (+110)
Britain and Ireland Group
When you think of California, you don’t always think of weather in the 50s with a chance of rain and wind, but that’s exactly what we’re looking at at Pebble Beach this weekend. If there’s any group that’s going to feel at home in that weather, it would be the British and Irish golfers.
This group is much more competitive than the Continental European group in my mind — and in my model. Five of the seven golfers in this group check in above the 70th percentile this week. Tommy Fleetwood (+250) and Shane Lowry (+500) are all the way at the top, though. Lowry comes in with great form with a win at the Abu Dhabi Championship and a 12th-place effort at the Dubai Desert Classic. He’s hitting more than 70 percent of greens in regulation over that stretch and has carded five rounds in the 60s of the eight he’s played in 2019. Fleetwood is more likely to win this group, but Lowry is too close in the model not to take him at twice the odds.
Play: Shane Lowry (+550)
South African Group
|Tyrone van Aswegen||+800|
Branden Grace (-125) came into last week off of a missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he couldn’t get a putt to drop all week. He hit 75 percent of greens in regulation through the first two days of the event but averaged 33 putts per round. To give that some context, he’s had that many putts per round at an event only one other time dating back to 2014. The putts started dropping in Scottsdale last week, though, and he finished in second place. He took advantage on the par 5s, which will be important again this week, going 12-under on the week.
Play: Branden Grace (-125)
Group A Winner
Group A features a clash of some of the betting and DFS darlings. I included the implied probability column below to show you what the odds actually are saying in this bet. You can’t really go wrong picking any of these golfers at plus odds, but it’s hard to imagine Tommy Fleetwood (+500) only has a 16.7 percent chance of finishing highest out of this group. He hasn’t missed a cut since July. Fleetwood has hit at least two-thirds of greens in regulation in all of his starts dating back to August. He’s tied at the top of my model with Dustin Johnson (+162) but has triple the payout.
Play: Tommy Fleetwood (+500)
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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