The Wyndham Championship is the last regular-season stop on tour before the FedEx Cup playoffs begin next week. There are some big names like Martin Kaymer and Zach Johnson outside the top-125 in FedEx Cup standings looking for a top finish this week, but I’m looking at a couple of youngsters to show up at Sedgefield Country Club. There’s value all over the board, but let’s get into some of my favorites before the start of the tournament. I’ll also be updating this article every night with new bets I like as the tournament progresses. As always, follow me on twitter @reidtfowler.
Round 4 Top Bets
Si Woo Kim to Win +20000 | Top Five +1600
Si Woo Kim has been sticking around the leaders all week and could be in line for a high finish tomorrow. He’s been inside the top-10 in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking all week and continued his strong iron play in Round 3, ranking ninth in the field. He’s lost strokes putting in two of his three rounds this week, but Kim found something on Friday where he gained 1.2 strokes on the greens, leading to a solid five-under round. Per Kenny Kim (@KendoVT), when Si Woo shoots in the 60s in his first three rounds (which has happened five times previously), he’s finished inside the top 5 each time and won one of those instances back in 2016, which was at the Wyndham.
Adam Svensson top Canadian +200
His ball-striking has been phenomenal all week and it doesn’t look like it’s stopping anytime soon, ranking second in the field through the first three rounds. Both he and Corey Conners have been terrible with their putters coming into this week, and haven’t done much to improve their SG: Putting stats at Sedgefield CC. Relying on the consistent iron play of Svensson, who’s gained strokes through approach in four of his last five tournaments is what we should rely on coming into the final round.
Round 3 Top BetsPaul Casey to Win +1200
If you weren’t able to get in on his number before the tournament started, now is your chance. His number isn’t the best value on the board, but the highest-ranked golfer in the field shot another impressive round Friday, making five birdies and no bogeys again, consistently gaining strokes with his irons ranking inside the top 10 in the second round. Casey’s averaging a 67.25 in his past four weekend rounds here at Sedgefield CC and the wet conditions should be ideal for scoring. Casey should rely on his ability to get it close and rattle off a ton of birdies, ranking fourth in opportunities gained and 19th in birdies or better gained over the last 24 rounds.
Round 2 Top BetsBest Score: Webb Simpson (+110) over Patrick Reed (+175) and Si Woo Kim (+300)
It’ll be hard to fade Simpson, who has been phenomenal at Wyndham dating back to 2012, but more recently, he’s averaging a 65.5 in his last eight rounds at Sedgefield CC. Si Woo can compete with the top brass and go low at a moment’s notice, but his usual hot-iron play has eluded him losing SG: Approach in his last seven straight tournaments.
Best Score: Paul Casey (+110) over Jordan Spieth (+105)
Casey finished the day with a clean card of five birdies and no bogeys, while Spieth gained 5.122 strokes on the green, which is the third best putting performance of his career. While this has become a more regular occurrence with Spieth this season, there’s a decent chance it doesn’t happen again tomorrow, while Casey has been hitting his irons extremely well over his last three tournaments ranking fifth in SG: Ball Striking. Spieth can have a hot putter in any round, but with only a 69.3 scoring average over his last six regular tournament rounds (not including The Open Championship) and ranking 60th in SG: Ball Striking after today’s round, we should see some regression from Spieth. Casey ranked 15th in SG: Ball Striking and lost strokes putting, so positive regression should be coming his way.
Viktor Hovland to Win +2500Narrative street is a road often traveled and we should take the proverbial ride by backing the rising star from Norway this week. Both Matthew Wolff (+5500) and Collin Morikawa have won very early in their careers and with this being Hovland’s last sponsor’s exemption, he’ll also be looking for an early victory at a course suited for his elite ball-striking. His putting has been atrocious since the U.S. Open, but with a couple of weeks off to practice, we should be expecting a better showing here than his current ranking at 118th in SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds. He’s finished no worse than 16th over his last three starts, and the last 24 rounds he’s 19th in SG: Par-5, second in opportunities gained, and fourth in SG: Approach. He’s tied for second in the field for the most consecutive cuts made on tour with seven, but we’re looking for a win. With eight straight rounds in the 60s over his last two tournaments, Hovland’s game is in the right place and this could be the right time. His college teammate, Wolff, may be a better value, but I’m more bullish in Hovland’s game over Wolff’s ability to win two tournaments in a span of four weeks.
Joaquin Niemann to Win +5500Before Hovland, Wolff and Morikawa, it was Niemann as the rookie who took the PGA by storm last season earning his tour card in just his eighth start. Just four tournaments later, he finished inside the top-33 at Sedgefield in 2018 and returns to Greensboro in great form ranking inside the top-15 in both SG: Approach and Birdies or better gained over his last 24 rounds. Before he missed the cut at The Open Championship, he rattled off two top-five finishes and a top-10 in three of his last four events and has gained strokes with his ball-striking in six straight tournaments. With over 90% of eagles coming off of the par-5’s at Sedgefield last season, Niemann should feel great about his chances to go low ranking seventh in SG: Par-5 over the last half-dozen tournaments.
Jason Kokrak to Win +7000 | Top-5 +1200Win equity from this price and below will be hard to come by, but Kokrak may have the best odds of his peers in this price range with a runner-up finish at the Valspar earlier this season. Since then, he’s averaged inside the top-30 of the cuts he’s made (missed cut at Travelers) and has gained strokes through his approach in five of his last eight tournaments. If he’s forced to get up-and-down this week, he may compete for last place, but his irons have been hot lately, gaining close to four strokes on average over his last two tournaments. Kokrak should be a solid value this week playing in his fourth straight Wyndham Championship with his best finish coming in 2017 (16th), when he shot four rounds in the 60s.
Roger Sloan to Win +17500 | Top-5 +3300It’s been a season of both favorites and longshots taking home the hardware and why not tie a nice hypothetical bow with Sloan to win at Wyndham. Sloan is coming into Sedgefield ranking fifth in SG: Total over the last six tournaments. More recently, over the last 12 rounds, Sloan’s statistics are exceptional ranking 17th in SG: Approach, 36th in SG: Par-5, 21st in birdie or better gained, and first in opportunities gained. He hasn’t been efficient hitting fairways this season, but ranked inside the top-25 in fairways gained at the John Deere a couple of weeks ago.
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