The Florida swing starts off with one of the toughest courses on TOUR. As I mentioned in my previous article, PGA National ranked fourth in scoring relative to par last season and second in 2018. The easiest it has played was 17th in 2014 and it has ranked inside the top 5 in scoring difficulty seven out of the past 10 years, the only non-major to rank this high over the past decade. The course has water on 15 out of 18 holes and since 2007 (minimum of 10 seasons), PGA National has recorded two of the top 5 toughest three-hole stretches in scoring on holes five through seven and 15 through 17. Since 2012, the winners’ odds average just under +13600 with the longest coming from both Padraig Harrington in 2015 and Michael Thompson in 2013 at +30100 and the shortest coming from Rory McIlroy at +900 in 2012.
Gary Woodland (+2800 to Win), Billy Horschel (+3300 to Win), Sam Burns (+10000 to Win, +1800 Top 5, +900, Top 10) and Chesson Hadley (+15000 to Win, +3300 Top 5, +1400 Top 10) are plays on both DraftKings and DraftKings Sportsbook, but here are other bets for this week.
ARE JUSTIN ROSE’S ODDS TO WIN THE HONDA CLASSIC TOO LOW?
Justin Rose to Win +2500Rose has moved eight spots down on the OWGR since the end of 2019 and hasn’t played well to start 2020, finishing 56th at the Genesis along with a missed cut at the Farmers. He’s lost strokes through approach in both tournaments and seems to not have the form to do well at PGA National. He’s also not played this tournament since 2015, when he missed the cut. So why bet Rose? He ranks 14th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-green over the past six tournaments on Par 70s, plays extremely well on difficult courses tee-to-green and finished with three top 5s here between 2010 and 2014. Mistakes need to be mitigated down the stretch and Rose is veteran player who has the experience in these conditions, gaining an average of 1.5 strokes on difficult courses in scoring relative to par.
Byeong Hun An Top 20 +175An can definitely nab a top 10 or higher at this course, but after his putting performance last week, top 20 is good exposure on one of the better ball strikers in the field. Even though his putting was trash last week he hit the ball solid, gaining close to 3.5 strokes off-the-tee and not losing any strokes with his irons. His best putting — along with some of his best finishes — is on bermuda, especially here finishing with a T36 last season and a top 5 the prior year.
Ted Potter Jr Top 20 +750The “Wizard” has missed three cuts in a row, but gets on a course he should have a little more success, ranking sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green, 34th in Opportunities Gained and fifth in Strokes Gained: Par 4 over his past six tournaments on Par 70s. Potter Jr. finished inside the top 10 at the Sony Open earlier this season, another Par 70 on bermuda and just finished with a T6 last week at the Puerto Rico Open.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.