It’s Florida swing season and second up to the proverbial plate (or tee box) is the Arnold Palmer Invitational (API) held at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. The course measures over 7,400 yards, plays as a Par 72 and will be putt on Bermuda greens this week.
Yesterday’s article laid out how the course has historically played and the key statistics which have led to success, but this article aims to find value in the betting market. In the past, Arnie’s tournament has been won by studs at the top of the betting board. Since 2015, the average number of past winners is +6500 with Matt Every winning at +17600 back in 2015 and Jason Day winning at +1500 the following year. There’s a ton of value on DraftKings Sportsbook with guys like Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose and Brooks Koepka all above +3300 to win this tournament.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600 to Win), Tony Finau (+3500 to win | Top 5 +750) and Scottie Scheffler (Top-10 +750) are a few plays on both DraftKings and DraftKings Sportsbook; here are other bets to take a look at this week.
ARE SUNGJAE IM’S ODDS TOO LOW TO WIN THIS WEEKEND?
Set your lineups here: PGA TOUR $555K Drive the Green [$100K to 1st]
Henrik Stenson to Win +4500This is a shot makers course where accuracy will reign supreme. Stenson has this in spades and has won majors, the TOUR Championship and other illustrious tournaments being one of the most accurate iron players on TOUR. He hasn’t played on TOUR since the Hero World Challenge (where he won) but it shouldn’t hurt his chances at a place he has amazing course history, ranking second to only Rory McIlroy in SG: Total dating back to 2015. He posted a top 20 here last season, but outside of the missed cut in 2017, he hasn’t placed worse than eighth since 2013. Everyone wants to win the King’s tournament; Stenson has been close and could be in contention again this week.
Marc Leishman Leader after Round 1 +6600Leishman is playing fantastic this season, already punching his ticket to the 808-State for next season’s Tournament of Champions by winning the Farmers back in January. The big Aussie has historically played well on difficult courses and per Shotlink data from the PGA TOUR, Leishman (as well as Justin Rose) is 20-under par in the first two rounds at this event, which is the best score to par in the opening two rounds at API over the past four seasons. This doesn’t automatically mean Leishman will do well on Thursday, but over his past eight opening rounds at Bay Hill he ranks 21st in opportunities gained, 11th in bogey avoidance, top 10 in SG: Approach and seventh in birdie or better gained.
Corey Conners Leader after Round 1 +8000 | Top 10 +1200If you want to hedge against Leishman with rain in Thursday afternoon’s forecast, Conners should be the morning wave play. We’ve seen the Canadian post rounds in the mid-to-high 60s over the past few months, carding a 64 at ZOZO, which eventually lead to a top 10 and an opening-round 68 in Mexico. He didn’t do so hot down at the HONDA, shooting two rounds in the 70s, but over his last dozen first rounds, he ranks 10th in opportunities gained and 23rd in birdie or better gained.
Wyndham Clark Top 10 +700 | Top 20 +300Clark has recorded three top 20s in his past three starts and has gained strokes through approach in three of his past four tournaments. He’s also been elite with his putting, ranking third in the field gaining an average four strokes on the greens in his past four tournaments. An 11th place finish last week at a very difficult course should only help him collect another solid finish in the Sunshine State.
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